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BREAKING: US Jobless Claims Rise 'More than Expected' This Week, Up By 24,000 to 399,000
FOX Nation ^ | 1/12/2012 | MarketWatch

Posted on 01/12/2012 6:05:35 AM PST by nhwingut

WASHINGTON — The number of Americans filing initial claims for regular state unemployment benefits rose by 24,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 399,000, the Labor Department said Thursday.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expected claims to rise by 8,000 to 380,000 in the week ended Jan. 7. Claims from the prior week were revised up to 375,000 from 372,000.

The average of new claims over the past four weeks increased by 7,750 to 381,750.

(Excerpt) Read more at nation.foxnews.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: employment; unemployment; unexpected

1 posted on 01/12/2012 6:05:43 AM PST by nhwingut
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To: nhwingut

Wow, that’s unexpected.


2 posted on 01/12/2012 6:07:19 AM PST by Obadiah (If U don't believe you can win, then there is no point in getting out of bed at the end of the day.)
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To: nhwingut

“Unexpected!”


3 posted on 01/12/2012 6:07:35 AM PST by Cringing Negativism Network (ROMNEY / ALINSKY 2012 (sarcasm))
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To: nhwingut

Cant wait to see how the libtard media reports this. After spending the last week proclaiming Obama “has the economic winds at his back.” LOL!


4 posted on 01/12/2012 6:09:03 AM PST by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else.)
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To: nhwingut
Additional data coming out this morning was also interesting...

Retail Sales in U.S. Rose Less Than Forecast

5 posted on 01/12/2012 6:09:58 AM PST by mewzilla (Santelli 2012)
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To: nhwingut

Hmmm... Seasonally adjusted. Wasn’t seasonally adjusted when all that temporary Christmas help was hired and the unemployment rate went down.

Sort of like the census.


6 posted on 01/12/2012 6:10:34 AM PST by EQAndyBuzz (Most Conservative in the Primary, the Republican Nominee in the General.)
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To: nhwingut

I don’t even believe NOAA when it publishes the moon and tides tables.

Every number that issues forth from Leviathan is skewed to favor the Wun.


7 posted on 01/12/2012 6:12:25 AM PST by SargeK
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To: nhwingut

:: Claims from the prior week were revised up to 375,000 from 372,000. ::

Why don’t they just truthfully report ^this weeks^ number at 403,000?


8 posted on 01/12/2012 6:13:27 AM PST by Cletus.D.Yokel (Islam is a tyrannical and violent POLITICAL ideology and has nothing to do with "religion".)
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To: nhwingut
They trumpeted the lower jobless rate last month as if they had completely forgotten Christmas occurred
9 posted on 01/12/2012 6:13:41 AM PST by Mr. K (Physically unable to profreed <--- oops, see?)
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To: nhwingut
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — New applications for unemployment benefits jumped last week to the highest level since late November, most likely because of end-of-the-year layoffs following the holiday season.

so, in other words, 399,000 people lost their jobs last week.

10 posted on 01/12/2012 6:19:10 AM PST by RC one (Scorch the earth Newt. Scorch it.)
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To: nhwingut

This is just so...abrupt, accidental, astonishing, what are the chances, comes from out of left field, wasn’t in the cards, it just comes from out of the blue. It is staggering, startling, stunning, sudden, unanticipated, unforeseen, unheralded, unlooked-for, unpredictable, and unpredicted.

I am just shocked, I tell ya.


11 posted on 01/12/2012 6:19:45 AM PST by tiki
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To: nhwingut
"Unexpected!"

Drink!

12 posted on 01/12/2012 6:20:12 AM PST by TexasCajun
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To: mewzilla
I seem to recall a post on NR that said "consumers are spending lustily" (this Christmas). Can't recall which fool said it.

Fools. Fools and tools. The entire stable at NR should be canned, starting with Lowry. They feed the Big Lie that the 'economy has turned the corner'. Like every other Wall Street suit, they want all of us shlubs to come running back to buy their mutual funds so they can collect nice fat brokerage fees.

A wise man once asked me, "Where are the customer's yachts?" Indeed.

We've been eating green shoots now for over four years. Give the Wun another four and we'll literally be eating green shoots. And bark. And peat bread like the Norks.

I had been investing in ammo, warm clothing and canned goods. I'm shifting into tar, pitchforks and rope.

13 posted on 01/12/2012 6:24:34 AM PST by SargeK
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To: nhwingut
Claims from the prior week were revised up to 375,000 from 372,000.

Shocking. The numbers had to be revised upward. Assuming that an honest initial report would have to be adjusted upward half the time and downward half the time, the odds of needing to be adjusted upward every week of the year is 0.0000000000000222%.

14 posted on 01/12/2012 6:27:45 AM PST by KarlInOhio (Herman Cain: possibly the escapee most dangerous to the Democrats since Frederick Douglass.)
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To: nhwingut

Laughable misreporting. Problem is that all of this misreporting is not changing reality and people are more aware of reality than data. Lots of seasonal jobs will evaporate — as tends to be the nature of all things seasonal. The misreported retail sales will result in store closings (Sears has already warned) — which will cause more lost jobs. Right sizing the military will result in lost jobs in the armed services and all the civilian contractors that support them. All the while food, heating oil, and gas keep getting more expensive. All of this leads to less discretionary income which feeds the cycle. Should be a tough summer for The One.


15 posted on 01/12/2012 6:28:15 AM PST by wizwor
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To: mewzilla
“Retail Sales in U.S. Rose Less Than Forecast”

And I believe Credit Card usage was up significantly for what was bought. Auto sales were apparently solid but I'm hearing Gov. Motors is giving credit to all but the dead. This Mornings news reported Home Foreclosures will be bad this year. Sounds like Bambi is leading this Country to the promised land, circa 2008.

16 posted on 01/12/2012 6:28:25 AM PST by DAC21
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To: SargeK

Well, sales can be great, but if margins are lousy retailers are still screwed. Conversely, good margins can make up for poor sales. If both suck, however...


17 posted on 01/12/2012 6:28:55 AM PST by mewzilla (Santelli 2012)
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To: nhwingut
Don't trust government statics. They are unexpectedly wrong and unexplainably low in favor of the adMINIstration. What is the real number 20%?
18 posted on 01/12/2012 6:32:38 AM PST by mountainlion (I am voting for Sarah after getting screwed again by the DC Thugs.)
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To: EQAndyBuzz

they are all seasonally adjusted.

I am so tired of idiots like Instapundit who don’t understand economic statistics acting like every data release is a partisan conspiracy.

It’s absolute bullshit and makes us look really stupid.


19 posted on 01/12/2012 6:34:12 AM PST by babble-on
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To: nhwingut

Christmas jobs being lost. Will continue for a few weeks.

Then, if shelves are stocked, there’ll be more layoffs or cut hours in manufacturing.


20 posted on 01/12/2012 6:34:55 AM PST by xzins (Pray for Our Troops Remaining in Afghanistan, now that Iran Can Focus on Injuring Only Them)
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To: KarlInOhio

“...the odds of needing to be adjusted upward every week of the year is 0.0000000000000222%.”

Which coincidently is equal to brain activity in leading economists.


21 posted on 01/12/2012 6:37:03 AM PST by bossmechanic (If all else fails, hit it with a hammer)
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To: nhwingut

Obama was in Chicago last night saying he’s just getting started. Needs 4 more years. Why should he stop at 4? He’s doing such a good job soon we’ll all be setting our 4 year old kids on the curb because we can’t afford to feed them like they’re doing in Greece.

Illinois has worse credit rating in the nation. Chicago Way is why. Barack is the child the the Chicago Way raised and trained after he was dropped off by God knows who on America’s curb.


22 posted on 01/12/2012 6:37:03 AM PST by arkady_renko (I want to believe.)
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To: Cletus.D.Yokel

They don’t want to cross the 400,000 barrier. Sounds worse than 399,000. It is just a marketing technique. Instead of something costing $10, it is $9.99.


23 posted on 01/12/2012 6:37:12 AM PST by kabar
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To: RC one
“so, in other words, 399,000 people lost their jobs last week”

Anyone see the significance in this 399,000 number? Odumbo’s boys in Labor made it so. I guarantee it is higher, but Gov, cooked the books to stay away from the negative physiological number of 400,000. Of course next week it will be revised to 403k, but that won't hit the news.

24 posted on 01/12/2012 6:38:42 AM PST by DAC21
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To: DAC21

Oops, should have been “psychological”


25 posted on 01/12/2012 6:42:38 AM PST by DAC21
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To: nhwingut

“Whoops” goes the weasel!


26 posted on 01/12/2012 6:46:51 AM PST by ScottinVA (Liberal logic: 0bamacare mandate is acceptable... but voter IDs are unconstitutional.)
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To: nhwingut

Inconceivably unexpected !!!
DRINK !

Surprise!...
Surprise!!...
Surprise!!!...

27 posted on 01/12/2012 6:46:59 AM PST by Stand Watch Listen
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To: mewzilla

Reading between the lines of this report, it seems that inflation is contributing factor and to guage the true measure of economic output, one has to adjust inflation out. I don’t see where they did that in this report.

If ‘sales’, as determined by an absolute dollar amount, are up one percent, but inflation is up two percent, then sales haven’t risen. They’ve fallen one percent.

It’s like saying ‘there were 200,000 jobs created last month’. But the working age population increased 300,000 and thus the labor participation rate (which is the ultimate true employment measure IMHO) fell. They are cherry-picking the numbers at best, and outright fabricating them at worst, all to enhance the image of the Wun.

I used to work with closely watched descriptive statistics of a specific measure of societal function. I could make any number of manipulations to demonstrate any point I wanted to, so long as the recipient of the statistic was passive, had no access to the raw data, and had no clue or concern for the context.

We are being played.


28 posted on 01/12/2012 6:49:03 AM PST by SargeK
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To: Mr. K

“They trumpeted the lower jobless rate last month as if they had completely forgotten Christmas occurred”

That happens when you’re muslim.


29 posted on 01/12/2012 6:49:38 AM PST by brownsfan (Aldous Huxley and Mike Judge were right.)
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To: DAC21
Of course next week it will be revised to 403k, but that won't hit the news

I already have the memo...Winstom Smith.

30 posted on 01/12/2012 6:50:17 AM PST by Don Corleone ("Oil the gun..eat the cannoli. Take it to the Mattress.")
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To: nhwingut
Bear in mind that the +24,000 number is seasonly adjusted which in this case is a dampening effect based on the assumption that post-holiday layoffs occur, the raw number (i.e., non seasonly adjusted) is +102,314 claims in the first week of the year.

Continuing claims also rose above expectations, rising to 3.62M from a revised 3.60M (the expectation was an unchanged figure (pre-revision), of 3.59M). Even worse 48,000 more people are dropping off the rolls (past 99 weeks) and are "disappearing" from the labor force completely. The Labor Force Participation rate at the end of January will most likely fall again to another 30+ year low.

31 posted on 01/12/2012 6:50:24 AM PST by zzeeman ("We can evade reality, but we cannot evade the consequences of evading reality.")
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To: nhwingut

Holidays are over. Unemployment goes up. Who would have thunk it?.........................obviously not the government drones....................


32 posted on 01/12/2012 6:50:54 AM PST by Red Badger (If you are unemployed long enough, you are no longer unemployed.)
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To: nhwingut

you would think then, that the unemployment figures for January should be back to 9%...right?


33 posted on 01/12/2012 6:51:47 AM PST by nikos1121
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To: DAC21

they also lead with the 24,000 number to draw attention away from the real number, 399,000 newly unemployed people in the first week of January.


34 posted on 01/12/2012 6:53:09 AM PST by RC one (Scorch the earth Newt. Scorch it.)
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To: EQAndyBuzz

“Seasonally adjusted” means Obama’s Special Butt-Sauce.


35 posted on 01/12/2012 6:55:36 AM PST by Gaffer
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To: SargeK
But the working age population increased 300,000 and thus the labor participation rate (which is the ultimate true employment measure IMHO) fell.

The unemployment statistics have become meaningless. If the Republican candidates had an ounce of savvy between them they would hammer on the LFPR and ignore the unemployment rate.

36 posted on 01/12/2012 7:01:28 AM PST by Timocrat (Ingnorantia non excusat)
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To: nhwingut

Obummer recovery: HOPE for a better result, and CHANGE for the worse.


37 posted on 01/12/2012 7:06:06 AM PST by SharpRightTurn ( White, black, and red all over--America's affirmative action, metrosexual president.)
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To: nhwingut
I am STUNNED, STUNNED I tell ya, STUNNED............ NOT!
38 posted on 01/12/2012 7:06:51 AM PST by rockabyebaby (We are sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo screwed!)
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To: SargeK

Thank you. It is expertise analysis like yours that causes me to consider FR the finest source of news and analysis on the internet.


39 posted on 01/12/2012 7:10:21 AM PST by hampdenkid
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To: nhwingut

...so let’s cut through the bullsh*t...how many people are UNEMPLOYED in this country? Right now. Claims are only part of the story, and we all know it. What about the people that have given up looking? How do we count them? How many are there?


40 posted on 01/12/2012 7:19:40 AM PST by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: Cletus.D.Yokel; kabar

Note the 24,000 jump is actually a jump of 27,000. They compared this week’s unrevised number with last week’s revised number to put the best polish on Barky’s turd. If a Republican were in office, even a crypto-socialist like Mittens, all the spin would be in the other direction. I hate the MSM.


41 posted on 01/12/2012 7:24:32 AM PST by Reeses (TV gives men a window into what women want, and it isn't pretty.)
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To: Timocrat
According to SGS; if you include part-timers seeking full-time work and long-term discouraged workers who have given up; the REAL rate is 22.4%.

22.4%...the media doesn't have the nads to float that out there without a Republican in the White House. Shame the candidates don't have the nads to run with THAT number...

42 posted on 01/12/2012 7:27:04 AM PST by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: nhwingut
.

.

.

.

43 posted on 01/12/2012 7:35:52 AM PST by Jeff Chandler (Quando Omni Flunkus Moritati)
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To: kabar
The BLS has been fudging unemployment numbers for a long, long time now. The idea here is to keep the headline number under 400K, which would be seen as a big red flag. Of course, this week's number will in fact be revised upward next week to something over 400K, but by then, the headline will be forgotten.

The claims number is nearly always revised upward, something that you might find amusing if you know anything about probability statistics. Try running a binomial distribution (coin flip scenario) to see what is the probability of a previous week's number being revised upward 51 of 52 times, as it was last year. The result includes a decimal point with a whole lot of leading zeros....

44 posted on 01/12/2012 7:46:57 AM PST by andy58-in-nh (America does not need to be organized: it needs to be liberated.)
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To: KarlInOhio
the odds of needing to be adjusted upward every week of the year

You noticed this too, hunh?

I wouldn't expect the numbers to be correct. I wouldn't expect them to err on the "positive" side, every single time, either. Proof positive that someone is fudging the numbers.

45 posted on 01/12/2012 8:22:13 AM PST by wbill
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To: nhwingut

It’s an enviro-whacko thing. They think recycling headlines saves the planet.


46 posted on 01/12/2012 8:24:18 AM PST by Tribune7 (Vote Perry)
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To: andy58-in-nh
If I'm remembering my statistics correctly, the probability of a coin flip coming up "heads" 51 out of 52 times (which as you say is comparable to the numbers being revised upwards 51 out of 52 times.....) is 1 in approx 2.2 Quadrillion.

You'd be thousands of times more likely to hit the Powerball.

47 posted on 01/12/2012 8:30:43 AM PST by wbill
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To: wbill
I wouldn't expect the numbers to be correct. I wouldn't expect them to err on the "positive" side, every single time, either. Proof positive that someone is fudging the numbers.

Ideally it would be a nice bell curve of adjustment amounts centered around zero. Half above, half below, most relatively close with a few outliers. It would be interesting to keep track of them for a year just to see what the actual distribution looks like. It is probably a bell curve but centered around some average number of increased claims for the adjustment. An oddball outlier might even be negative - but it would be rare.

If I get some time this weekend I'll try to track down all of these weekly reports and make a chart.

48 posted on 01/12/2012 8:50:43 AM PST by KarlInOhio (Herman Cain: possibly the escapee most dangerous to the Democrats since Frederick Douglass.)
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To: wbill
The binomial probability of 51 hits out of 52 trials, with a 50% probability for each trial with a probability mass function is: 0.000000000000011546.

I don't know about you, but 'm playing the Lottery tonight. ;-)

49 posted on 01/12/2012 9:35:00 AM PST by andy58-in-nh (America does not need to be organized: it needs to be liberated.)
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