Skip to comments.BREAKING: US Jobless Claims Rise 'More than Expected' This Week, Up By 24,000 to 399,000
Posted on 01/12/2012 6:05:35 AM PST by nhwingut
WASHINGTON The number of Americans filing initial claims for regular state unemployment benefits rose by 24,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 399,000, the Labor Department said Thursday.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expected claims to rise by 8,000 to 380,000 in the week ended Jan. 7. Claims from the prior week were revised up to 375,000 from 372,000.
The average of new claims over the past four weeks increased by 7,750 to 381,750.
(Excerpt) Read more at nation.foxnews.com ...
Wow, that’s unexpected.
Cant wait to see how the libtard media reports this. After spending the last week proclaiming Obama “has the economic winds at his back.” LOL!
Hmmm... Seasonally adjusted. Wasn’t seasonally adjusted when all that temporary Christmas help was hired and the unemployment rate went down.
Sort of like the census.
I don’t even believe NOAA when it publishes the moon and tides tables.
Every number that issues forth from Leviathan is skewed to favor the Wun.
:: Claims from the prior week were revised up to 375,000 from 372,000. ::
Why don’t they just truthfully report ^this weeks^ number at 403,000?
so, in other words, 399,000 people lost their jobs last week.
This is just so...abrupt, accidental, astonishing, what are the chances, comes from out of left field, wasn’t in the cards, it just comes from out of the blue. It is staggering, startling, stunning, sudden, unanticipated, unforeseen, unheralded, unlooked-for, unpredictable, and unpredicted.
I am just shocked, I tell ya.
Fools. Fools and tools. The entire stable at NR should be canned, starting with Lowry. They feed the Big Lie that the 'economy has turned the corner'. Like every other Wall Street suit, they want all of us shlubs to come running back to buy their mutual funds so they can collect nice fat brokerage fees.
A wise man once asked me, "Where are the customer's yachts?" Indeed.
We've been eating green shoots now for over four years. Give the Wun another four and we'll literally be eating green shoots. And bark. And peat bread like the Norks.
I had been investing in ammo, warm clothing and canned goods. I'm shifting into tar, pitchforks and rope.
Shocking. The numbers had to be revised upward. Assuming that an honest initial report would have to be adjusted upward half the time and downward half the time, the odds of needing to be adjusted upward every week of the year is 0.0000000000000222%.
Laughable misreporting. Problem is that all of this misreporting is not changing reality and people are more aware of reality than data. Lots of seasonal jobs will evaporate — as tends to be the nature of all things seasonal. The misreported retail sales will result in store closings (Sears has already warned) — which will cause more lost jobs. Right sizing the military will result in lost jobs in the armed services and all the civilian contractors that support them. All the while food, heating oil, and gas keep getting more expensive. All of this leads to less discretionary income which feeds the cycle. Should be a tough summer for The One.
And I believe Credit Card usage was up significantly for what was bought. Auto sales were apparently solid but I'm hearing Gov. Motors is giving credit to all but the dead. This Mornings news reported Home Foreclosures will be bad this year. Sounds like Bambi is leading this Country to the promised land, circa 2008.
Well, sales can be great, but if margins are lousy retailers are still screwed. Conversely, good margins can make up for poor sales. If both suck, however...
they are all seasonally adjusted.
I am so tired of idiots like Instapundit who don’t understand economic statistics acting like every data release is a partisan conspiracy.
It’s absolute bullshit and makes us look really stupid.
Christmas jobs being lost. Will continue for a few weeks.
Then, if shelves are stocked, there’ll be more layoffs or cut hours in manufacturing.
“...the odds of needing to be adjusted upward every week of the year is 0.0000000000000222%.”
Which coincidently is equal to brain activity in leading economists.
Obama was in Chicago last night saying he’s just getting started. Needs 4 more years. Why should he stop at 4? He’s doing such a good job soon we’ll all be setting our 4 year old kids on the curb because we can’t afford to feed them like they’re doing in Greece.
Illinois has worse credit rating in the nation. Chicago Way is why. Barack is the child the the Chicago Way raised and trained after he was dropped off by God knows who on America’s curb.
They don’t want to cross the 400,000 barrier. Sounds worse than 399,000. It is just a marketing technique. Instead of something costing $10, it is $9.99.
Anyone see the significance in this 399,000 number? Odumbo’s boys in Labor made it so. I guarantee it is higher, but Gov, cooked the books to stay away from the negative physiological number of 400,000. Of course next week it will be revised to 403k, but that won't hit the news.
Oops, should have been “psychological”
“Whoops” goes the weasel!
Inconceivably unexpected !!!DRINK !
Reading between the lines of this report, it seems that inflation is contributing factor and to guage the true measure of economic output, one has to adjust inflation out. I don’t see where they did that in this report.
If ‘sales’, as determined by an absolute dollar amount, are up one percent, but inflation is up two percent, then sales haven’t risen. They’ve fallen one percent.
It’s like saying ‘there were 200,000 jobs created last month’. But the working age population increased 300,000 and thus the labor participation rate (which is the ultimate true employment measure IMHO) fell. They are cherry-picking the numbers at best, and outright fabricating them at worst, all to enhance the image of the Wun.
I used to work with closely watched descriptive statistics of a specific measure of societal function. I could make any number of manipulations to demonstrate any point I wanted to, so long as the recipient of the statistic was passive, had no access to the raw data, and had no clue or concern for the context.
We are being played.
“They trumpeted the lower jobless rate last month as if they had completely forgotten Christmas occurred”
That happens when you’re muslim.
I already have the memo...Winstom Smith.
Continuing claims also rose above expectations, rising to 3.62M from a revised 3.60M (the expectation was an unchanged figure (pre-revision), of 3.59M). Even worse 48,000 more people are dropping off the rolls (past 99 weeks) and are "disappearing" from the labor force completely. The Labor Force Participation rate at the end of January will most likely fall again to another 30+ year low.
Holidays are over. Unemployment goes up. Who would have thunk it?.........................obviously not the government drones....................
you would think then, that the unemployment figures for January should be back to 9%...right?
they also lead with the 24,000 number to draw attention away from the real number, 399,000 newly unemployed people in the first week of January.
“Seasonally adjusted” means Obama’s Special Butt-Sauce.
The unemployment statistics have become meaningless. If the Republican candidates had an ounce of savvy between them they would hammer on the LFPR and ignore the unemployment rate.
Obummer recovery: HOPE for a better result, and CHANGE for the worse.
Thank you. It is expertise analysis like yours that causes me to consider FR the finest source of news and analysis on the internet.
...so let’s cut through the bullsh*t...how many people are UNEMPLOYED in this country? Right now. Claims are only part of the story, and we all know it. What about the people that have given up looking? How do we count them? How many are there?
Note the 24,000 jump is actually a jump of 27,000. They compared this week’s unrevised number with last week’s revised number to put the best polish on Barky’s turd. If a Republican were in office, even a crypto-socialist like Mittens, all the spin would be in the other direction. I hate the MSM.
22.4%...the media doesn't have the nads to float that out there without a Republican in the White House. Shame the candidates don't have the nads to run with THAT number...
The claims number is nearly always revised upward, something that you might find amusing if you know anything about probability statistics. Try running a binomial distribution (coin flip scenario) to see what is the probability of a previous week's number being revised upward 51 of 52 times, as it was last year. The result includes a decimal point with a whole lot of leading zeros....
You noticed this too, hunh?
I wouldn't expect the numbers to be correct. I wouldn't expect them to err on the "positive" side, every single time, either. Proof positive that someone is fudging the numbers.
It’s an enviro-whacko thing. They think recycling headlines saves the planet.
You'd be thousands of times more likely to hit the Powerball.
Ideally it would be a nice bell curve of adjustment amounts centered around zero. Half above, half below, most relatively close with a few outliers. It would be interesting to keep track of them for a year just to see what the actual distribution looks like. It is probably a bell curve but centered around some average number of increased claims for the adjustment. An oddball outlier might even be negative - but it would be rare.
If I get some time this weekend I'll try to track down all of these weekly reports and make a chart.
I don't know about you, but 'm playing the Lottery tonight. ;-)