Posted on 12/31/2011 5:47:06 PM PST by lbryce
The Des Moines Register poll — the final one before the Iowa caucuses on Tuesday — has Mitt Romney and Ron Paul virtually tied in the lead going into the final 72 hours before voting.
In the survey, Mr. Romney has 24 percent and Mr. Paul has 22 percent.
The new poll, which was released online by the newspaper at 7 p.m. local time, shows the candidates closely bunched up behind the two leaders.
Mr. Santorum has 15 percent in the poll while Mr. Gingrich gets 12 percent. Mr. Perry has 11 percent and Mrs. Bachmann gets 7 percent. The poll has a margin of error of 4 percent, the paper said.
The paper said that Mr. Santorum’s support boosts himself into second place when only the final two days of the poll were counted.
The survey reflects a reordering of the field in the last several weeks. The previous poll by the Register, released on Dec. 3, showed Mr. Gingrich with the lead, at 25 percent, Mr. Paul in second and Mr. Romney in third, with 16 percent support.
(Excerpt) Read more at thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com ...
FINAL RESULTS:
604 respondents, over the last 4 days, MOE = 5.6%
Romney – 24
Paul – 22
Santorum – 15
Gingrich – 12
Perry – 11
Bachmann – 7
2-DAY RESULTS
302 respondents, over the last 2 days
Romney – 24
Santorum – 21
Paul – 18
ALL the momentum is with Santorum. Will the evangelicals tomorrow at church unite with their pastors? If so..
1. Santorum
2. Romney
3. Paul
4. Newt
Michele and Perry drop out to endorse??????
My head is spinning. But I’m sticking with Newt to close this out in SC & FL....
These people are leading the pack? We're doomed.
A poll on a Republican race in the RedStar & Sickle is like a PETA ranking of their favorite steakhouses.
It’s those wacky Iowans again! They’d vote for Sponge Bob if they could, just hear the media talk about how “unpredictable” they are. I wish we could pull the plug on this circus already.
agreed. tomorrow could be a big day at the churches. After this, if the pastors/churches swing behind Santorum he could well take it.
Of course, Romney can still air some major ads against him.
but at this point I think Mitt doesn’t really care about IA. NH was always his bastion. As long as he wins there he’s fine.
And, he may actually be ok with Santorum winning as he’s much weaker going forward in SC and FL than Perry or Newt would have been. A much more preferred matchup for him. Santorum has no money or organization really in those states. And he has enough of a record and baggage the spotlight being shown on him won’t be all that pretty and could end up hurting the party and making Mitt’s case look all the better.
Maybe it’s those sweater vests Santorum has been wearing. Personally I don’t like them, don’t think they’re Presidential and make him look like a kid.
The 2012 Mayan Disaster right on schedule.
You sure pegged that right. Sponge Bob? lol, but your right. They are enjoying their day in the spotlight, they mudy have so little in Iowa for entertainment.
The Register is Iowa’s Red Star&Sickle.
This poll shows Ron Paul only two points behind Romney.
Paul is a bad choice but he’s the one closest to beating Romney who must be stopped.
Paul runs second to Romney in the latest New Hampshire polling.
I’m sick of the circular firing squad blasting off salvos for Perry, Santorum, Newt etc. etc.
Romney has the conservatives fighting each other instead of fighting him.
Maybe we can find a real conservative candidate to beat Romney when the vote reaches South Carolina and Florida later this month.
But for Iowa and New Hampshire the way to fight Romney is messier.
My first choice remains the one candidate most outside of business as usual politics, Bachmann, but she has no chance.
If I had to walk into a caucus next Tuesday night or vote in New Hampshire, I would be disgusted with the whole situation but I would vote to see Romney lose.
I want to start a fight between Romney and Paul rather than see the fight among conservatives continue while Romney rides above the fight.
The surge is working!
The fight has to continue to South Carolina, but the fight among conservatives is not likely to stop unless we forget about any of them winning in Iowa or New Hamsphire.
Tactical votes to defeat Romney are a better alternative that cancelling each other’s votes (Perry, Santorum, Newt, Bachmann) out allowing Romney to win the first two contests and gain momentum going into the South.
The surge is working!
The idea that Paul is even in the running is so ridiculous that it tells me that something is very wrong with a whole lot of people....like MAYBE pretend Repubs have infiltrated and ruined the entire process. PAUL IS CRAZY!!!!
Win or lose the Perry campaign will still have plenty of cash on hand. His consultants will want to expend it and thus collect a share. Perry doesn’t need it for another campaign seeing as he officially “retired” last January. Bachmann, win or lose, probably will have less cash on hand. Her plan all along was to leverage a win in the state next to her base, and conveniently her birth state, into national momentum. Lose here and her presidential campaign is out of obvious options, but her backup option - staying in congress - could use any leftover funds. She might drop out if she does poorly enough, but a losing Perry would likely stay in, albeit damaged. Like Bachmann, Santorum has ‘bet the house’ on Iowa and has actually promised to drop out if he does too poorly there. But the trend suggests his bet may win, at least this round. Whether he can leverage such a win enough, and quickly enough, to succeed nationally remains to be seen. But last time Huckabee gained quite a bit from his unexpected Iowa win. Santorum lacks Huckabee’s considerable baggage and his records and positions are fiscally much more conservative than Huckabee’s, so his ceiling could be higher.
If Newt can get through IA and NH in relatively good shape, with either a win in IA or a close 2d or 3d, he should be able to wrap up some of the Southern states and be the lead dog into Super Tuesday. Cross your fingers!
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