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TNR: Yes, Newt’s Up in the Polls. No, You Shouldn’t Take His Candidacy Seriously.
The New Republic ^ | 12/02/2011 | Jonathan Bernstein

Posted on 12/02/2011 1:31:35 PM PST by SeekAndFind

Newt Gingrich is having an impressive national polling surge. His chances of grabbing the GOP presidential nomination have spiked up to over 30 percent at Intrade this week, and the media is full of stories about whether it’s time to start taking him seriously. Here’s my advice: don’t. None of the recent polling means he’s going to win the Republican nomination, nor does it even mean that he’s going to have a serious shot at it. Newt is still the same wildly unelectable candidate he was five minutes ago, and the polls that say otherwise are no better indicator of voters’ true preferences than a game of darts.

The reasons why we don’t have to take Newt seriously are many, but the most obvious is that, despite his recent polling, he’s still the same candidate with all the same baggage. He’s still got his history of deviations from party orthodoxy on practically every issue, and the ethics violations, and the marital problems. He’s still the same guy who wound up not being trusted at all by those who worked with him when he was in office. And he’s still got a long history of just not being very popular with anyone outside of the most intense of intense partisans—and even they are likely aware that he’s risky at best and more likely pure poison in a general election.

The lack of endorsements by party actors is the second factor working against Newt, and it suggests that the people who have the most at stake in the nomination see him the same way as I do. We’ve seen this year (Donald Trump?!?) and in the past (John Anderson 1980? Jerry Brown 1992? Rudy Giuliani 2008?) that practically anyone can get a rush of attention and therefore a surge in the polls,

(Excerpt) Read more at tnr.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: conspiracy; donedeal; gingrich; newt; nominee; polls; thefixisin
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To: magritte

I was only off by one year. I’m good!

:-)


41 posted on 12/02/2011 3:49:50 PM PST by Raebie (WS)
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To: Cyber Liberty
Really, and I only speak for my self, but then I do not claim to have read everything posted here. Man you must be busy.
42 posted on 12/02/2011 3:54:51 PM PST by org.whodat (Just another heartless American, hated by "AMNESTY" Newt, Willard, Perry and his fellow supporters)
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To: org.whodat

You said “everybody” calls Guiliani “Judy,” and I (among others) simply pointed out the idiocy of such a claim. I know you are better than this. And yes, I am busier than all get-out. Work is like that when they lay everybody around you off. You’re happy for the job, but the workload of a “left behind” is murder.


43 posted on 12/02/2011 3:59:23 PM PST by Cyber Liberty (To Obama, bipartisanship is giving the opposition the opportunity to do as they are told. (WGensert))
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To: Cyber Liberty
Then again about four months ago I ran into a man in a waiting room, we talked for about and hour. Two months later I saw him again, and said hay how you doing have not seen you in a while. He looked and me and said have we met before and I said yes and where. The other day I saw him again, about three months later, in his mind we met for the first time again, I just did not bother to say otherwise. So nice to meet you for the first time again.
44 posted on 12/02/2011 4:01:53 PM PST by org.whodat (Just another heartless American, hated by "AMNESTY" Newt, Willard, Perry and his fellow supporters)
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To: org.whodat

LOL! He too must be a “left behind.” I feel for that guy. Maybe I’m just getting to be an old fart.


45 posted on 12/02/2011 4:04:01 PM PST by Cyber Liberty (To Obama, bipartisanship is giving the opposition the opportunity to do as they are told. (WGensert))
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To: magritte

Stupid is as stupid does, you have surpassed yourself.


46 posted on 12/02/2011 4:04:01 PM PST by org.whodat (Just another heartless American, hated by "AMNESTY" Newt, Willard, Perry and his fellow supporters)
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To: Cyber Liberty

That was a true story, I saw him a few days ago again, this time I said hi and walked away.


47 posted on 12/02/2011 4:06:20 PM PST by org.whodat (Just another heartless American, hated by "AMNESTY" Newt, Willard, Perry and his fellow supporters)
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To: vekzen

Yes, you are right to be concerned.

Newt might well self-destruct if given enough rope.

I hope he doesn’t. He’s not my favorite but he’s my second to best favorite.


48 posted on 12/02/2011 4:08:18 PM PST by altura (Perry 2012)
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To: Mr Rogers

Don’t worry. I’ve been here a while and he was only called Judy by a precious few.

It took me a second to realize who the poster was talking about.


49 posted on 12/02/2011 4:11:33 PM PST by altura (Perry 2012)
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To: magritte

And the sad thing is, she lets him have access to the computer.


50 posted on 12/02/2011 4:12:44 PM PST by altura (Perry 2012)
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To: org.whodat
Well, hopefully you don't do that with me.

Consider: There have been hundreds of thousands of FReepers over the years, many posted only a few times. My numerical ID is somewhere around 4,000. That means I have seen virtually ALL of those hundreds of thousands march by. It boggles the mind how many I have "spoken" with over the years. And I certainly recall posting back and forth with you on occasion. You have a unique nick, whodat.

Oh, I never called Rudy the tranny "Judy," but that's just me.

51 posted on 12/02/2011 4:21:20 PM PST by Cyber Liberty (To Obama, bipartisanship is giving the opposition the opportunity to do as they are told. (WGensert))
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To: org.whodat

Oh, BTW: This is post #36,498 from me.


52 posted on 12/02/2011 4:24:28 PM PST by Cyber Liberty (To Obama, bipartisanship is giving the opposition the opportunity to do as they are told. (WGensert))
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To: SeekAndFind

“Newt is still the same wildly unelectable candidate he was five minutes ago”

And the pig obuma carries more garbage than an international trashmen’s convention. Newt isn’t my favorite candidate, but I’ll put his transgressions up against that smelly neo-Nazi, racist, goat-humper’s traitorous deeds any day of the week.

The Chicago oinker is cooked. Come and get me, muslim freak al Zawahiri.


53 posted on 12/02/2011 5:05:56 PM PST by sergeantdave
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To: USS Alaska

We all would like to see a debate between Newt and Hussein.
I say the Cowardly One will never, ever debate a man like Newt. He’ll “Just Say No”.


54 posted on 12/02/2011 6:51:09 PM PST by Mountain Mary (One Nation Under God...There I said it.)
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To: Cyber Liberty

LOL


55 posted on 12/03/2011 2:56:22 AM PST by org.whodat (Just another heartless American, hated by "AMNESTY" Newt, Willard, Perry and his fellow supporters)
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To: SeekAndFind
And “Here’s my advice:” we got Juan McLame listening to the commies in the media and that ain't happening this time around - get used to it.
56 posted on 12/03/2011 4:52:37 AM PST by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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