Posted on 11/17/2011 6:53:55 AM PST by DadOfFive
-26 on August 23rd of this year appears to be the all-time low...
18%...if that ever aligns with one of those 47% strongly disapprove number that have occurred in the past; we'd be looking at -29...tantalizingly close to the -30 that George Bush hit...of course, President Bush never had the built-in 'race factor' that Zero can count on thru thick and thin...
Which is where Herman Cain comes in to peel off 5-15% of that vote...
As Abe Lincoln said; "You can fool some of the people all of the time."
The fact that 27% think that this is a good idea is frightening.
Fine by me, although it would be nice if race never even entered in to it...of course; then you have the women that vote for someone based on their looks or handsome smile...
Women, FReeperettes excluded of course,
vote for a proxy father/husband. Especially if they are single, more so if divorced.
Maybe those photos of zeros sloppy wet kisses with communist leaders had something to do with it?
The logic part of my brain says you are absolutely correct on Ras here. But, there is the other part of my brain, the sky-is-falling side, that feels total panic seeing the days go by dropping to the point where approve (50) went momentarily HIGHER than disapprove (49). This part of the brain, after total panic, feels total nirvana to see a 5 point drop in one day to where he should be.
“That kind of volatility is indicative of bad sampling.”
Agreed.
~20% are going to approve of this guy no matter what he does, he could be photographed doing things worse than Sandusky has been accused of and he won’t fall below high teens to 20.
His numbers are going to rise as the campaign season begins, however I really don’t see how he gets even in the best case is lucky to get to 40, maybe low 40s on the outside, provided the Republican’s don’t run a neophite, not ready for prime time candidate.
Unfortunately there are more than a few primary voters that seem bound and determined to do just that.. and if they do, then Republicans basically forfeit the 2012 election.
Mitt sucks but will beat Obama. Newt has his issues, but provided he can keep his ego and temper in check, and honestly when put beside Obamas, that may not even be a concern, he will beat Obama. Bachmann? Not a chance in hell.. Perry? No way.. Cain? Nope. I wish there were better options out there, but there aren’t.
I would love to see a reaganesque candidate in this election cycle, but its just not there folks, and wishing and projecting it onto one neophite after the other, doesn’t make it so.
We’ll see how this plays out.
Scott Ras's poll is like a Ouija board, with Scott's hands on the planchette. Every now and then he gets a phone call, and has only one hand on the planchette, and then... he sneezes! That's when we get the data we got this week.
Lol. You have a way w words. In this case, the scary part is you may be right.
I knew he would sink back into the mire by the end of the week.
Obama must have had great numbers Saturday/Sunday. Sunday’s sample dropped off from today’s results.
Aha! When Rasmussen had Obama’s job approval at 50% and disapproval at 49% just three days ago, MANY Freepers were completely APOCALYPTIC and some had even declared Obama a shoo-in for re-election. I hope they’ve learned a valuable lesson here.
Polls are going to ebb and flow between now and Election Day. It’s IMPERATIVE everyone remain strong and calm when Obama’s numbers are rising, and to not get carried away with excessive celebration when his numbers are dropping.
Here’s what I posted about it on Monday, November 14:
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Predictably, the hand-wringers and doom-and-gloomers here on FR are WAY, WAY overreacting to an job approval poll that is clearly an OUTLIER from every other approval poll currently out there. And of course the majority here is already throwing up their hands, waving the white flag of surrender, and more-or-less declaring Obama the victor one full year prior to an election. YOU PEOPLE SHOULD BE ASHAMED OF YOURSELVES.
Folks, think about it... Has there been ANY positive news for the country in the past week? NO! Unemployment is still at an alarmingly high 9%, there are still 14 million people out of work, the national debt has increased by $5 TRILLION over the past three years, we’re on the verge of a nuclear Iran, Obama continues to be mired in scandals, etc. etc. Obama’s approval numbers have consistently remained around 44% on every other poll. So did you ever stop to think that perhaps Rasmussen has taken a BAD SAMPLE of popular opinion over the past several days???
But no, too many of you want to panic, give up, and declare Obama unbeatable. It quite frankly MAKES ME SICK and makes me not want to post on Free Republic any longer because I don’t need all this extra negativity in my life.
If there is ever a time to start building a backbone of steel, it’s NOW!!! And QUIT READING AND LISTENING TO THE STATE RUN MEDIA FOR CRYING OUT!! The media is purposefully going to try to depress you. They’re going to try to convince you that the economy is improving when it’s NOT, that Obama’s poll numbers are improving when they AREN’T (Heck, let’s not forget that Jimmy frickin’ Carter had a 54% approval rating in Gallup just 10 months before the 1980 election!), and that the GOP candidates are terrible when they AREN’T! The American people all KNOW things are bad right now. Poll after poll is showing 80% of them think the country is going in the wrong direction and even more think the economy STINKS, for crying out loud!
I’m officially making my prediction right now that OBAMA IS TOAST IN 2012 AND WILL LOSE HIS RE-ELECTION BID IN A LANDSLIDE. That’s right... MARK IT DOWN AND BOOK IT. I also predict that Rasmussen will have Obama’s job approval numbers back around 45% within the next week and may even drop below 40% with the next year. A LOT can and will happen between now and the November 2012 election. We’re gearing up for yet another deficit reduction battle in Congress with the super-committee over the next couple of weeks, which will almost certainly be a drain on Obama like it was this past summer. ObamaCare has a very good chance of being struck down and he will be rightly portrayed as a overreaching president who’s signature piece of legislation was ruled unconstitutional. Greece and Italy is almost certain to default at some point, which will send the U.S. stock markets into a tail spin. The U.S. has a 50-50 chance of lapsing back into another recession during the next year. Would ANY of this make Obama more re-electable??? HELL NO!!
So get a damn grip, people, and START CAMPAIGNING AGAINST OBAMA BY TALKING TO YOUR FAMILY, FRIENDS, AND CO-WORKERS RIGHT NOW!!
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Ras needs to sample better, or maybe increase the length of his moving average from 3 days to 8. This volatility is just crazy. I'm wondering how much of it is just from different segments of the population having different probabilities of being home on any particular day when the pollster calls.
Yes! Polling is very similar in effect to fuji! Fuji is the Chinese tradition of spirit writing, said to be guided by 'Zigu 紫姑 "Purple Maiden", the Spirit of the Latrine'
“This comes as just 18% believe the country is generally heading in the right direction.”
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Only 18 percent are totally braindead now? That’s the best news I’ve heard lately.
“That kind of volatility is indicative of bad sampling.”
In which direction? Ras has been higher than Gallup for a long time now, which has lead most folks to conclude that Ras is keeping his numbers up.
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