Cain surges despite scandal (Cain 32% Romney 15%)

Poll Position ^ | 11/2/11 | Eason Jordan

[Politicalmom]

Actually, character matters. Gingrich has NONE. He’s a narcissistic man with absolutely no ability to make good decisions.

Herman Cain has proved he can make good decisions, has integrity, and has lived a conservative life, vs talking about it.

[Future Useless Eater]

With 3 most recent YouGov polls, and the Poll Position poll included

Much like what the government does with unemployment statistics, the following chart represents a 4-poll "rolling average" for the latest 20+ polls listed at RealClearPolitics.com (plus recent weekly national polls from YouGov).

I also weighted the polls by their size. For example, a poll with a survey size of 1000 was weighted proportionately heavier than an 324 survey size.

Weighted 4-Poll Rolling Averages of the latest 20+ Polls listed at RCP [as of Nov 2nd]
plus the "YouGov" 10/25, 10/18 and 10/11 polls, and the 11/1 Poll Position poll inserted chronologically

*I estimated Ron Paul's support in the 11/1 Poll Position at 7.9% in order for his strength to neither go up or down in this chart.

[freespirited]

Thanks!

[C. Edmund Wright]

also pretty clear that Cain got much of his support from disaffected Perry supporters. Probably from Bachmann too if you had charted her on the graph.

[onyx]

B T T T ! ! ! ©

[federal__reserve]

Ping! Bump!! Keep the great news coming!!!

[ken5050]

Gerry Dale, is that you?

[semaj]

"...but the LEADER needs the right HEART"

Well said.

[federal__reserve]

“Foreign Policy” is no more complicated than think “USA interests first!”. That means not bowing to Muslim potentates, not throwing our allies under the bus, and not let China & OPEC call the shots.

[Carry_Okie]

I also weighted the polls by their size. For example, a poll with a survey size of 1000 was weighted proportionately heavier than an 324 survey size.

Good effort, thank you. I am not doubting the reasonableness of the result. However, when you publish something like this, in the interest of establishing its credibility, please publish the actual spreadsheet formula with data source links so that others can check every source if they wish and know how each is weighted. I know it's a lot of posting work, but I'm sure you intend to update this chart as the season progresses and would like to have FReepers citing it as reliable.

[Jeff Head]

HERMAN CAIN VS. BARACK OBAMA IN 2012

[Jmouse007]

Just think what a Cain presidency would look like and accomplish... it would kill the "Republicans are racists" card. It would kill the "Blacks must stay on the NAACP, DemocRAT leftist, communist, socialist, Marxist plantation, if they want to get anywhere in life" card.

The gracious and thrifty, hard working Cain's would demonstrate to the world what King Farouk Obama and Mochiell Antoinette are for all the world to see. Just imagine the comparisons: In a year, King and Queen Obama went on a bazillion vacations and racked up bazillions of dollars in spending on their never-ending lavish lifestyle: Waugh beef, caviar, lobster, 200, MILLION DOLLAR A DAY VACATIONS(the list with these leaches is ENDLESS), ALL at the taxpayers expense while 18-25% (there is no way unemployment is at 9% in reality) of Americans are UNEMPLOYED, UNDEREMPLOYED, or have given up looking for work all together. In contrast; President Cain took a week off at Camp David.

Imam Obamessiah went golfing 800 times, Cain doesn't golf, nor does he believe it is appropriate to be taking precious time away from running the country to PLAY golf while so many of his fellow Americans are suffering.

The leftist MSM, along with the flea infested Marxist, communist, Socialist, Leninists parading in the streets with their cry-baby, "redistribute the wealth; GIVE ME WHAT I WANT, let me steal from you so I can have what you got by hard work... for free" OWS looser crowd must all be freaking out and shaking in their boots at the prospect of a real BLACK AMERICAN in the White House who is the polar opposite of EVERYTHING THEY WANT and who BELIEVES IN AMERICA and the GREATNESS OF AMERICA, CAPITALISM and who supports the JEWS, Israel and all of America's traditional allies.

[RockinRight]

If the trend continues, Cain will be blowing everyone away, and Newt might be able to pull ahead of Mittens.

[chris37]

Lol @ R0mney the Inevitable.

Lol @ the rest of the pack.

Go, Herman, go!

[CharlesWayneCT]

The “scandal” which isn’t a scandal has the effect of rallying conservatives, for a time.

If there was going to be a negative effect, it wouldn’t be in the primary polling now, it will be in the head-to-head Obama matchups, where the poll incudes more moderate and liberal republicans, along with independents and democrats.

The people who are inclined to support a candidate tend to support them more strongly when something like this comes out. It’s the people who were on the sidelines, but who might have been saying ‘Cain’ because of name recognition, who will now say some other name in a poll.

The other thing you see a lot in “scandals” is that the person who is the target gets a big donation bump. That was true for Cain, it was true for Weiner, it was true for that idiot in florida. It doesn’t matter whether the scandal is real or imagined, because it also worked for the conservative who shouted “you lie” to the President. Attacks against a candidate bring the candidate money.

[wolfman23601]

Interesting Newt’s surge in support appears to be taking from Romney.

[6ppc]

The statisticians (or sadisticians as we would have said back in college) among us would call that a trend.

[federal__reserve]

“a Cain/Gingrich ticket sounds good to me”

I will 2nd that motion.

[BenKenobi]

Herman/Newt for me too. :D

SO happy to see Cain blow Romney out of the water in a national poll. Now he just needs to keep racking up the state count. :D

[montyspython]

Romney Toast!