Posted on 04/14/2011 9:49:08 AM PDT by Clintonfatigued
Nevada Rep. Shelley Berkley is running for Senate, pitting two Members of Congress for the seat of retiring Republican Sen. John Ensign.
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairwoman Patty Murray told reporters Thursday morning at a briefing, “Shelley Berkley is running. ... Our polls show her up and winning.”
Berkley said in a statement, “Nevadans know me, and they know I will never stop working on behalf of our state.”
The Las Vegas Sun’s Jon Ralston first reported the news in his email newsletter. “She had been agonizing but polling, opportunity too appealing,” Ralston wrote.
A poll conducted last month on Berkley’s behalf showed her and Republican Rep. Dean Heller running statistically even, but the Las Vegas-area Representative reportedly still had not made up her mind.
Berkley had national and local Democrats awaiting her decision of whether to give up a safe Democratic seat for just a crack at the Senate.
(Excerpt) Read more at rollcall.com ...
It’s official, it’s Heller vs. Berkeley. This will be a barn-burner.
Berkeley is probably going to win.
The Republican party is dead in Nevada. After the Republican “leaders” came out against Angel in favor of Reid, the grassroots are pretty much Tea Party members now.
Sharron Angle is running for Congress to succeed Dean Heller, isn’t she?
Not so much. Berkeley won’t play well outside of Clark County. She looks too much like Pelosi, heavy on the make up and frightens small children. Heller meanwhile remains popular throughout the state and will peel enough votes in Clark County to take this election. I’ve met Heller several times and while I would like him to be a little more conservative, he comes across as an average Joe, someone you wouldn’t mind having a beer with.
I think Heller will win by at least 5%. Heller has name ID in the entire state, including Las Vegas (not only was he Secretary of State, he has also represented part of Clark County in Congress), and is conservative enough for conservatives but moderate enough for moderates. Berkeley is too liberal for most Nevadans and is largely unknown outside of Las Vegas—Heller should clean up in Reno and the Cow Counties and do okay in Clark County.
I’m not worried. She can’t win statewide.
Your posting makes me hopeful. I hope that the campaign donors see things the same way.
Some have expressed the opinion that Berkeley will have little appeal outside of Las Vegas.
I’m also intrigued by the race to succeed Berkeley in the House. It’s normally a solid ‘Rat district, but Republicans can win under the right circumstances. IMHO, Lois Tarkanian would be a good candidate.\
http://www.lasvegasnevada.gov/Government/councilwoman_tarkanian.htm
Well, of course, I also predicted that Harry Reid would lose to a ficus plant... then again, I also rightly predicted Sharron Angle wasn’t as well regarded as a ficus plant. Berkley’s “twin”, Dina Titus, couldn’t pull off a statewide run, either. I think some legislative Dems were pressuring Berkley to make this kamikaze run for the Senate in order to redraw what will be 4 seats and get a 3D-1R majority out of it (or even 4D), and Berkley’s presence hamstrung those efforts. I think it’s also very possible that Angle being the nominee for Heller’s seat could make that 4D scenario not beyond the realm of impossibility.
BTW, Lois Tarkanian is a Democrat.
Whoops! Give me a few moments to wipe an omlet off my face.
I remember rooting for Angle because I thought that Harry Reid was so unpopular that the race was in the bag, so let’s get the most conservative nominee possible. As for redistricing, doesn’t the Governor have veto power there?
We don’t know what the NV-01 will look like; I would prefer that it be even more Democrat than it is now (so that the other twp Clark County districts lean GOP), but the GOP doesn’t control the process.
It would be almost impossible not to draw an NV-02 that isn’t heavily Republican; and I doubt that Democrats will draw three CDs in Clark County that lean only slightly Dem. Odds are that the Dems will try to draw two comfortably Dem CDs in Clark County and a third CD that might be competitive for them but which would lean Republican; doesn’t Sandoval get a veto?
Even if Lois were a Republican, she’d be too old to run. The TEA Party groups erred badly in pushing some candidates that were potential if not outright likely losers for the general. Angle and Buck in CO were two examples. I raised my voice and spoke out against Angle’s being nominated at all since I knew she was the one candidate who would lose. If Danny Tarkanian or Sue Lowden had been the nominee, Harry Reid would be out of office.
As for Gov. Sandoval, I haven’t heard of what he plans to do with respect to redistricting (or if the Dems have enough power to shove through their plans). The problem is not having the State Senate for balance makes it that much more harder for us (although we’re only 1 seat away from flipping it back).
Lois T also went for the mat for Reid in the general. She’s lucky I ain’t her son!
It’s too bad Heller didn’t run against Reid, Harry would have gotten as many votes as Rory.
No one listened to us on Angle, it was a real bad felling, knowing we were dead right and that no one would give a crap. Which is why she needs to lose her House primary. Her carer in elective office needs to end before she fouls up another race.
I love when the idiots also attacked me, claiming I wanted Reid to win again (much like with the FL KH Senate race). Some of us slightly more politically sophisticated observers know that too often it’s not the substance of the candidates (their stances), but the package or messenger. Angle wasn’t wrong on the issues, she just was the wrong person to take on Reid. We also had the problem of a rash of second-tier candidates running. Krolicki or Heller should’ve carried the torch, but opted out (I think a great part of it was because they both expected Reid to use full-on character assassination combine with Vega$/SEIU-fraud to pull out a win). Well, Reid has sold whatever was left of his soul to get this (what may be) his final term. As they say, be careful what you wish for...
It was disappointing to see freepers fall for her “look at me I’m the tea partiest!” message. Any candidate can just shout that they’re the ‘most conservative’.
And to have the Club for Growth endorse her, I usually agree with their primary choices.
Yes, indeed. Pay no attention to her erratic behavior and prior losses, yessir. As it was, we have this habit of nominating our candidates with less than 50% (she only got 40%) and while that was a bit more than Sue Lowden’s 26% second-place finish, I’d have rather there be a runoff in this instance. Lowden might still have lost the runoff, but at least Angle could’ve claimed majority base support (similar to the problem KH had in FL in the ‘06 Senate race, getting just 49% of the vote, and for which the runner-up, Will McBride, who got 30%, might’ve harnessed the huge anti-KH vote within the party to win a runoff, and for whom would’ve performed better against a damaged Bill Nelson).
Yeah if it were up to me we’d have primary runoffs in every state (or IRV which I remain a fan of).
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