Posted on 11/14/2010 5:41:41 AM PST by no dems
Here is a list of all the Senate incumbents up for reelection in 2012:
§ Democrat Incumbent Elections
§ 3.1.1 Dianne Feinstein of California
§ 3.1.2 Tom Carper of Delaware
§ 3.1.3 Bill Nelson of Florida
§ 3.1.4 Daniel Akaka of Hawaii
§ 3.1.5 Ben Cardin of Maryland
§ 3.1.6 Debbie Stabenow of Michigan
§ 3.1.7 Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota
§ 3.1.8 Claire McCaskill of Missouri
§ 3.1.9 Jon Tester of Montana
§ 3.1.10 Ben Nelson of Nebraska
§ 3.1.11 Bob Menendez of New Jersey
§ 3.1.12 Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico
§ 3.1.13 Kirsten Gillibrand of New York
§ 3.1.14 Kent Conrad of North Dakota
§ 3.1.15 Sherrod Brown of Ohio
§ 3.1.16 Bob Casey, Jr. of Pennsylvania
§ 3.1.17 Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island
§ 3.1.18 Jim Webb of Virginia
§ 3.1.19 Maria Cantwell of Washington
§ 3.1.20 Joe Manchin of West Virginia
§ 3.1.21 Herb Kohl of Wisconsin
o Independent incumbent elections
§ 3.2.1 Joe Lieberman of Connecticut
§ 3.2.2 Bernie Sanders of Vermont
o Republican incumbent elections
§ 3.3.1 Jon Kyl of Arizona
§ 3.3.2 Richard Lugar of Indiana
§ 3.3.3 Olympia Snowe of Maine
§ 3.3.4 Scott Brown of Massachusetts
§ 3.3.5 Roger Wicker of Mississippi
§ 3.3.6 John Ensign of Nevada
§ 3.3.7 Bob Corker of Tennessee
§ 3.3.8 Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas
§ 3.3.9 Orrin Hatch of Utah
§ 3.3.10 John Barrasso of Wyoming
In Pennsylvania, we are already preparing to unseat Casey, Jr.
might be a lot of smoke in the air by time that election comes around
2012 may be a bad year for Senate Dems. I see at least 9 seats in play. 1 GOPer seat in play (Scot Brown). If any one disagrees, please say so.
Rats
Tom Carper of Delaware - safe
Daniel Akaka of Hawaii - safe
Ben Cardin of Maryland - safe
Bob Menendez of New Jersey - safe (unless Christie runs)
Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico - safe
Kirsten Gillibrand of New York - safe
Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island - safe
Maria Cantwell of Washington - safe
Herb Kohl of Wisconsin - semisafe
Bob Casey, Jr. - semisafe
Dianne Feinstein of California - semisafe
Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota - semisafe
Bill Nelson of Florida - In trouble
Claire McCaskill of Missouri - In trouble
Jon Tester of Montana - In trouble (won in 2006 due to false pretenses)
Kent Conrad of North Dakota - In trouble
Sherrod Brown of Ohio - In trouble
Jim Webb of Virginia - In trouble
Joe Manchin of West Virginia - In trouble
Debbie Stabenow of Michigan - In deep trouble
Ben Nelson of Nebraska - goner
GOP
Jon Kyl of Arizona - safe GOP
Richard Lugar of Indiana - safe GOP
Roger Wicker of Mississippi - Safe GOP
Bob Corker of Tennessee - Safe GOP
Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas - Safe Gop
Orrin Hatch of Utah - safe GOP
John Barrasso of Wyoming - safe GOP
Olympia Snowe of Maine - Safe
John Ensign of Nevada - safe
Scott Brown of Massachusetts - In trouble
At least six of the Republicans should be primaried out by the TEA Party. Let’s find attractive candidates, ideally with a strong military background, and begin grooming them for their service to America.
Two years is “no time” in politics.
Reference for more info:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2622393/posts
Feinstein will (seriously) be 80 by then.
Wondering why you think Manchin is in trouble. Also, I have a feeling Kohl will retire. He’s in his mid 70s I think.
Still cant convince myself that Webb will run again. I just dont think he likes the job all that much. Cant say that I blame him; all that hot air gets tiring.
Richard Lugar of Indiana is NOT safe, he is a RINO!
KBH is supposedly going to retire.
However, she was also supposed to retire after the gubernatorial primary this past cycle.
We need to make sure that she is gone in any case. Time to start looking for a suitable replacement, now.
Then, once we do that, we need to rid ourselves of Cornyn.
Much work to be done.
We have to defend three seats (NV, ME, MA).
In MA, dems won every seat this year, I doubt Scott can survive there. Ensign in NV with her cheating and possible tax fraud scandal is gone too in 2012. If GOP managed to lose in Nevada against Reid this year, Ensign or new GOP nominee is having a real fight in 2012. This is a 50-50 fight.
ME is in play if some local version of O’Donnell is nominated.
So, 3 GOP seats are in grave danger.
On the plus side, if there is a strong GOP candidate in NY,NJ,WI,NM I think those seats are in play. Especially Menendez is widely despised and with a GOP year, there is a decent chance of GOP win.
My prediction is that we lose 2 out of 3 GOP seats (MA, ME, NV), but win FL, MO, ND, OH, MI, NE, NJ,NM,WI.
That would be a net gain of 7 and little room for mistakes.
Goner. LOL!
How can any Senate Democrat who voted “Yes” to any form of Obamacare be considered safe? Their vote needs to be tied around their neck like a millstone and then cast them into the sea of former Congresscritters.
Gillibrand is definitely vulnerable in 2012. She’s nothing more than a sock puppet for Schumer. Problem is a solid candidate to unseat her. Someone who is going to go brass knuckles politics.
In Pennsylvania, we are already preparing to unseat Casey, Jr.
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Bless you. What about a rematch between Casey & Santorum? No?
That’s why I listed that as GOP safe. If there is a primary challenge, the GOP would most likely retain the seat.
maybe legal trouble for Manchin.
How do you figure Joe Manchin in WV is in trouble? The WV people just proved that outside of Presidential politics they can’t stand the thought of having anyone in office but a friggin’ Democrat.
I lost a lot of respect for West Virginia. I truly thought they had more snap than they demonstrated in this last election.
I wish that were the case, it’s New Jersey afterall
Olympia Snowe of Maine - should be a GONER!!
Would you support Rudy? I would, but a lot Freepers would not.
At least six of the Republicans should be primaried out by the TEA Party.
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Well, let’s see if we picked the same “six”. I say: Lugar (IN), Hutchison (TX), Hatch (UT), Snowe (ME), Ensign (NV) and Brown (MA).
What say ye?
Cornyn’s lack of support for a GOP primary winner in DE (as chair of the RNSC) should cost him. He is siding with the Beltway far too much.
Ensign in NV with her cheating and possible tax fraud scandal is gone too in 2012.
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Ensign is a dude, not a her.
Absolutely a safe GOP seat but not necessarily for the person currently holding it!
In fact, I would venture a guess that KBH will NOT return to the Senate in 2013 under any condition.
How can any Senate Democrat who voted “Yes” to any form of Obamacare be considered safe?
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If the Pubbies do not run a strong candidate against them.
What if Rudy ran against Gillibrand?
thank you
that’s why I listed as GOP safe.
;>)
Good list. My only disagreement is that Feinstein is very safe in California.
Handy reference. Thanks for posting it.
The twelve vulnerable Democrats at this early date are:
§ 3.1.3 Bill Nelson of Florida
§ 3.1.6 Debbie Stabenow of Michigan
§ 3.1.7 Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota
§ 3.1.8 Claire McCaskill of Missouri
§ 3.1.9 Jon Tester of Montana
§ 3.1.10 Ben Nelson of Nebraska
§ 3.1.12 Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico
§ 3.1.14 Kent Conrad of North Dakota
§ 3.1.15 Sherrod Brown of Ohio
§ 3.1.16 Bob Casey, Jr. of Pennsylvania
§ 3.1.18 Jim Webb of Virginia
§ 3.1.21 Herb Kohl of Wisconsin
I’m not quibbling, but DiFi in CA is “safe”...much safer than Boxer.
Mostly agree. Feinstein is safe. Whitman and Fiorina dumped a ton of $ into Cali. Forget Cali-it’s dead. Bingaman in New Mexico is doable. I see + 7 or 8.
The Five Republicans that ought to be replaced with better candidates are:
§ 3.3.2 Richard Lugar of Indiana
§ 3.3.3 Olympia Snowe of Maine
§ 3.3.6 John Ensign of Nevada
§ 3.3.8 Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas
§ 3.3.9 Orrin Hatch of Utah
Unfortunately, we can consider California gone. Even though she will be 80, she can still win convincingly. I say put the money into races that we can win and let California sink deeper. They apparently have not hit rock bottom. When they do, maybe they will pick better pols.
Yet Casey was all in for 0 by the next year, and he didn't hesitate to vote for Deathcare - so his "pro-life" bona fides are all but gone.
Hopefully, '12 won't be as favorable for the Democrats in general, and he won't stroke as many consciences as a "pro-life" candidate this time around.
Depending on who we run, I'd call this one "in play"
Yep!
You don’t know how many times that I have had to call his office to remind him that he works for US and NOT the “Party Elites”.
I am done with the guy.
The class of 2012 and the class of 2014 were elected in Democrat wave years, and there are quite a few Democrats who won narrowly in their elections like Jon Tester and Jim Webb. Yes, we should be able to pick up quite a few seats in normally Republican leaning states.
Brown of Massachusetts is toast, but that is OK - he served his purpose of ending the filibuster safe majority this year and reducing the Dem majority for the upcoming two years.
I would be surprised if Feinstein ran again, nonetheless there is NO chance any GOPer takes that seat.
In looking at the list, I think we have a legit shot at taking at least 10 of those seats.
I like your categories.
I think a possible 10th could come from one of the Rust Belt/Midwest seats that went Rep this year like PA, Mi, Mn, or Wi.
I think we could lose Brown and Snowe and still get a net gain of 10. However, that is based on the country right now. We have to keep it up, but it is possible.
Exactly. The only way Feinstein’s seat isn’t safe is if she decides not to run for reelection.
Someone like Michael Williams should be able to win her seat, handily.
Unfortunately, Cornball isn't up 'til 2014.
We needed to rid ourselves of that little weasel in the last cycle. Too many fawned over him because of the (R) behind his name. AFAIC, he displayed his true colors when he voted for TARP.
Gillibrand could be trouble if Rudy decides to run.
Awesome news. Keep posting the list of those that must be voted out and find Conservative candidates to run against them. Organize our campaigns now and dig the dirt on those that have to go. Expose every one of their votes and highlight any fraud and corruption tied to them. Let the enemies of freedom know they’re TOAST in 2012 and 2014 and 2016.
Voter fraud has to be investigated and stopped. Make that a priority as well.
Also for the most part at the state & county level a WV Rat on gun ownership and social issues is indistinguishable from a GOP’er. The problem is the average WV’er is abysmally ignorant on economics. The nuts and bolts of how jobs are created. Having grown up there I have heard incredible statements about economics, commerce and just how local businesses operate. Listening to this is how I developed the notion of “Scrooge McDuck Level of Economic Understanding”, many there truly believe that “bosses” go home and do the equivalent of rolling around in piles of money. Like Uncle Scrooge did in the old Disney comic books.
All in all at the state level Manchin is better on economic issues then the average WV Rat politician. Raese made 3 mistakes that cost him his chance. The “big one” was pointing out that “minimum wage laws” increase unemployment and in general are bad for the economy. All true but not the thing to say in WV. The other two he had less control over, he is rich and also came from a family that has had successful businesses in WV. He should have had a ready answer for that and turned it into a positive. His wife spends most the year in Florida, he should have had a ready answer for that. it still might have not made any difference, a guy with money has 2 strikes against him in WV. The exception is being a Rockefeller, then you spread the rumor that you personally will put money in the state and you will use your family influence to bring jobs in. Yeah that worked for Rocky but the state got nothing. However people bought it hook line an sinker. The other great argument to support him was, 'Rocky is too rich to steal!'
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