Posted on 11/13/2010 11:12:40 PM PST by SeattleBruce
Incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski is closing in on the total number of votes cast for Joe Miller on Election Day. While it's believed the lion's share of votes for write-in candidates will go to Murkowski -- a suspicion the ongoing count has thus far proved -- the ballots must be looked at and assessed to know for sure. But with 84 percent of the more than 98,000 write-in ballots cast on election night already evaluated, Murkowski appears to be within striking distance of a win.
--snip--
But -- and there are always "buts" -- there are still thousands other votes yet to be tallied (at least 8,800 absentee votes plus more to be tallied from overseas) which could skew in Miller's favor, and if the difference between Miller and Murkowski is 1,246 or fewer votes -- 0.5 percent of all votes cast -- the election outcome will be close enough to trigger a state-funded recount. Not to mention Miller has launched a series of legal questions about whether less-than-perfect votes -- those with misspellings -- should count. He says no, Murkwoski says yes, and the court fight could become much higher stakes if it is challenged ballots on which the election will be decided. Also, more recently Miller has lodged allegations of possible fraud, and he's seeking voter registries to verify that the number of votes from certain areas didn't exceed the number of legally registered voters and to assess whether voters filled out their own ballots.
(Excerpt) Read more at alaskadispatch.com ...
Need an insider in the post office (s)to make sure they show up on time...........would hate it if a few bags of votes where left on the side until after the deadline and then “found”.
crazy that a vet would vote for satans daughter!!!
Just like photos of Obama this year,pictures of the power mad harridan with other GOP members will be used in campaign commercials during the primaries of 2012 to defeat them.
She had better be totally avoided in the Senate if the Republican Senators know what's good for them.
That's a high number...I'll bet it isn't more than 2,000. Fact is, the troops do not vote in high numbers.
cut off your nose to spite your face...that makes sense..we need all the R’s...don’t you get it?
Not every Republican can be as “pure” as some people here want them to be..
You have got to be kidding....
Murkowski winning makes me sick to my stomach. I’d love to have a handwriting expert take a look at these ballots to determine how many ballots were written by the same person(s).
What is the hold up on counting the absentee ballots?
Like you I can’t find anything as to when the UOCAVA ballots are to be counted. I originally thought it would be on Nov. 18 but I now think they maybe lumped in and being counted with the other absentee ballots. You would think there would be some info out there as to the process and as to how many UOCAVA ballots were mailed out.
Who knows but we are witnessing a historical election regardless of the winner.
2010 General Election Write-in Counting Instructions
2010 General Election Absentee and Questioned Ballot Count Schedule
- Tuesday, 11/9 - Early votes from Election Day and Absentee ballots
- Friday, 11/12 - Questioned ballots
- Monday, 11/15 - Absentee and/or questioned ballots
- Tuesday, 11/16 - Absentee and/or questioned ballots
- Wednesday, 11/17 - Special Advance (overseas) ballots
“They haven’t counted any absentee ballots as of yet, I believe the 19th is the date they are due to start that count.”
I’m not sure that they haven’t counted any absentees yet - Miller had only 79,000+ votes to 92K for ‘write-in’, and now Miller has over 87,000 votes and write-in has 98,000 - so where did those extra votes come from? Miller himself said on Saturday that he thought there were 8,000 more absentee ballots to go, and since the overseas/military deadline is Wed. I wouldn’t doubt is several thousand more of the 10,000+ military ballots come in (how many is an important question, as I think they’ll help Miller.)
If Alaska elects Murkowski, I think their hero status is out the window.
“Election officials are scheduled to finish counting the final 15,000 write-in ballots Sunday – but that most likely won’t be the end of the road for either Miller or Murkowski.”
I was in error here, having read a lot of articles about this race - they are referring to the final ‘write-in’ ballots and not the 8,000 (plus how many thousand more military and overseas ballots coming in by Wed.) that Joe Miller referred to yesterday in articles.
I still think Miller has a chance to basically tie, or be ahead comparing uncontested write-ins for murky with his votes.
Then the question goes to the courts with how they’ll decide the contested votes.
In my view, depending on how many votes are still to come in - thousands still? - Miller will have to succeed in roughly 75% of his contested votes to win.
Why then, if the candidates are within thousands of CONTESTED votes and basically tied in UNCONTESTED votes, is the media and the murky camp acting like this is over?
As yourself that question.
So Calex, according to Deport’s schedule posted, they have counted some absentees, but best we know, and according to what Joe Miller himself said just yesterday, there are about 8,000 additional ballots, plus many late arriving military/overseas ballots to arrive between now and Wed.
I would think that many of those 8,000 are overseas/military votes (later arriving is my rationale for saying that) and that will favor Miller, as will votes coming in this week.
If Miller gains 6000 to 4000 advantage, or 7000 to 3000 advantage on these military votes (and many here think that may be realistic) then he will be up by 1,000 to 3,000 votes or so as murky’s uncontested percentage across 98,565 ‘write-in’ ballots is currently 89.58%.
98,565 * 89.58% = 88,295 and Miller currently has 87,517 votes. That means 778 UNCONTESTED votes will separate the two if murky’s percentage holds steady. (84% of ‘write-ins’ have already been counted - so likely murky’s uncontested vote percentage will hold steady.)
Deport has reported that in 2008:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2626026/posts?page=44#44 (this is no dems quoting deport).
“13,766 Overseas Military Ballots were transmitted in 2008.”
Question then is, how many troops voted that year, and how many this year.
In any case, based on my analysis in post #34 above, Joe Miller only needs to make up about 778 uncontested votes to be tied with Murk in uncontested votes.
I think that for sure is do-able and Miller may have a small 1,000 or 2,000 vote advantage with about 8,000 votes being contested and counted across the 98,565 write-in votes there currently are.
“Alaska must have one of the dumbest populations on the face of this earth.”
Where would that put Washington State (my home state) and KalIforneeeya? LOL
“what is the current tally?”
Here’s a lot of the data you’ll need in raw form.
http://www.elections.alaska.gov/results/10GENR/
And you may want to check out post #34 in this string for where I think this is - I think about 778 uncontested votes separate the two candidates with about 10,000+ (how many more military ballots will come in by Wed.?) absentee ballots to be counted. Joe Miller himself said 8,000 absentees to be counted, and with the last batch Miller gained 2,000 votes...I think Miller will have a small lead in contested votes - perhaps 1,000 or 2,000 and there will be 8,000 or so contested but counted write-in votes.
So if Miller won 75% of those contested but counted votes - he wins.
Truly it’s up to the courts to uphold clearly written AK election law.
http://www.ktva.com/ci_16606303
“Murkowski and state officials are on the same side”
Wow, ya think?!?
Thanks SeattleBruce.
IF the Alaska Military members got a different ballot than the rest of the voters—this could end up in court for a long time.
I think that ALL ballots must be the same.
If anyone can find a military ballot that did NOT get cast—which shows this kind of discrepancy—this could doom Lisa & the Alaska Elections officials.
They are playing fast & loose with the rules as it is.
Pretty stupid, as well as disgusting.
With the internet- a copy of an unused military ballot for Alaska could go viral in seconds.
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