A Watershed Election

NRO ^ | Feb. 1, 2010 | Michael Rubin

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After the Iraqi parliament banned 500 candidates from contesting the March 7 national elections, Vice President Joseph Biden rushed to Baghdad to urge Iraqi political leaders to reconsider. While the ban has fueled U.S. cynicism about Iraqi democracy, such cynicism is unwarranted, especially now.

The Iraqi parliament’s decision did not wipe out Sunni candidates. Even the majority Shia lists are multi-sectarian. Iraqis say the controversy is really about rule-of-law and sovereignty issues. Across the ethnic and sectarian spectrum — and even in senior Iraqi military circles — Iraqis consider it likely that there will be a Baathist coup attempt following U.S. withdrawal, even if they disagree about its chances of success. Indeed, it is no coincidence the current defense minister is among those banned by parliament.

The White House and U.S. embassy in Iraq should be cautious about interfering in judicial matters. From an Iraqi perspective, their law is seldom as arbitrary as U.S. embassy whims or U.S. CENTCOM experiments. The Iraqi system now works. Already, several dozen disqualified candidates have won reinstatement through appeal. An overly active White House will fuel Iraqi distrust, which is already high because of the perception that the current administration is hostile toward Arab democracy. In offices and classrooms around the holy city of Najaf, the Shia religious leadership castigated U.S. military efforts — singling out Generals Petraeus and Odierno by name — to force reconciliation with recalcitrant Baath party members. “The Awakening [Council] model cannot apply to the Baath,” the son of one Grand Ayatollah said. “If they do not accept democracy, how can they govern it?”