Posted on 01/17/2010 8:38:22 AM PST by blam
Pakistan Collapse Could Trigger Global Great Depression and World War III
Politics / Pakistan
Jan 16, 2010 - 08:47 PM
By: Nadeem Walayat
During 2009 the 2600 terrorist attacks resulted in the number of deaths soaring to more than 12,000 casualties in Pakistan, compared to the number killed in Iraq falling to 2,800 from the 2008 total of 5,900. The U.S. War in Afghanistan pushed the Taliban and Al-Qeeda over the border into Pakistan that has sparked an escalating insurgency and Pakistan's own U.S. backed un-popular "War on Terror" which is going just as badly as that in Afghanistan, only without the deep financial pockets to embark up on an never ending war that is increasingly sapping what little strength the Pakistan Economy had out of it and now seriously risks the collapse of the state due to the stress of the conflict on the economy and society.
The world appears to be sleep walking towards a mega-crisis during 2010 and beyond resulting from that of continuing and escalating terrorist insurgency fed by U.S. policy, that is spreading like a cancer across Pakistan resulting in the disintegration of the Pakistani economy and by consequence the disintegration of many areas of the state into lawless areas despite the size of the Pakistani Army, this would result in fallout across the whole region and the wider world on a scale of several magnitudes greater than that which followed the collapse of Iraq following the 2003 invasion.
Pakistan populated by more than 170 million people could turn into a black hole that could swallow many more trillions of dollars in an escalating but ultimately unwinnable war on terror that would disrupt not only the economies of the west with hundreds of thousands more boots on the ground, but also the economies of the neighbouring states, especially India, Iran and China much as the war in Afghanistan had increasingly impacted on the Pakistani state and economy over the past few years.
Not only is Pakistan's vast military industrial complex and arms stock piles at risk, but far more deadly than the IED's or klashnikovs are Pakistan's nuclear and chemical weapons that could greatly increase the risks of a series of dirty bombs emerging from within a failed state even if the nuclear weapons themselves remained secure.
Therefore the Pakistan crisis has the potential for becoming a very significant factor when determining the direction of the global economy over the coming years due to both a mega refugee crisis that would emerge from a failed state and the conflagration of conflict across the region, unless action is taken to stabilise the situation in Pakistan towards which the following could form part of:
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Nadeem Waalayat is probably a Pakistani. Pakistanis love empty talk and theories, and have a huge overestimation of their country’s power and influence.
Pakistans only major export is people and terrorists. It’s economy is miniscule. It has no oil. I can cause trouble for India, but that’s about it.
In fact, a Paki collapse may be a good thing in the end, because it would force the world to finally put up a big fence around the place.
Someone please inform the world that all of these problems are coming as the result of one religion.
In order to establish peace with this religion we have to winnow their numbers down to where they can be dealt with?
They have no intention of living in peace with anyone.
They've been wanting to do that a long time, and it's Taliban policies that are encouraging that ambition.
Moslems in UK, particularly those who are seeking to impose Sharia Law there, probably ought to prepare for forced conversion to Christianity in the relatively near future. Once there's no more "back home" to flee to your Brit victims are going to get fed up with your nonsense and change your beliefs ~ else they have their own history of disposing of evil opponents.
Agreed on WWIII - never has such an inconsequential place been so disruptive. How could a country full of folks so smart allow such a thing to happen ?
Don’t bet on it. The Brits have emasculated themselves to the point of political, social and military impotence. They’ve disarmed themselves literally, haven’t the will to defend their own culture, are reducing their own birth rate and a fleeing their Island home by the hundreds of thousands every year. I’d like very much to seem them drive out the Muslims among them or at least cut down or eliminate their immigration into Britain but I just don’t see that happening. They’re done for.
Concur. If Pakistan collapses, it should be a lesson to all Muslim governments that you reap what you sow.
In a word - islam.
170 million?
Folks breed like roaches.
The risk of course are the nukes. If our CIA is worth a salt (not insignificant assumption), then we know where these things are and have plans ready to go to neutralize them if required. My guess is the Defense Department has those plans and may for all we know already made a few covert intrusions to take care of business.
Islamists/Muslims are like children, they want to be the center of attention. This is a great example.
schu
Good map!
Lots of rats nests in that part of the world.
I think it should be obvious to all that our CIA, Military, is incompetenet when it comes to heading off problems in advance. Pakistan will not end any different then any other “problem” we knew about in advance. Watch how we mess this up.
Pakistan and India having a Nuclear exchange in a power vacuum created by a collaspe of Pakistan and incompetence in the White House would be our worst nightmare.
I don’t see how we stop it if Pakistan is taken over by those willing to use their weapons.
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