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Short Seller: Dump Munis (municipal bonds)
Barron's ^ | November 7, 2009 | Tom Sullivan

Posted on 11/07/2009 5:22:15 AM PST by reaganaut1

James Chanos, the famed short seller who was among the first to foresee the collapse of Enron, recently sounded the alarm on the municipal-bond market -- in the hallowed halls of the New York Historical Society, no less.

The "cracking of state and local municipalities is coming," he predicted at a recent meeting attended by Barron's staffer Susan Witty, adding that he wouldn't touch munis.

In a subsequent telephone interview with this columnist, Chanos said, "State and local municipal finance are a mess and going to get worse."

It's not just the recession, which has reduced tax receipts. Rather, he says the poor economy "is masking real problems in municipal cost structures." The big problem, he says, is "the platinum-plated health-care and retirement benefits" given to state and local workers. "It's all coming home to roost" as boomers start to retire.

California faces a $60 billion deficit, and the politicians there believe that in "a worst-case scenario, the federal government will bail them out," says Chanos. "If the feds do bail them out, as I believe they will," the state's bonds will likely lose their federal tax exemption, he adds.

He didn't mention New York, but he could have. Gov. David Paterson and the state legislature, controlled by the governor's own Democratic Party, are playing a game of chicken about where to find budget cuts to address a soaring deficit now estimated at $3.2 billion. Paterson has also warned that the state could run out of money to pay its bills before the end of the year.

Neighbor New Jersey faces an $8 billion structural deficit next year -- one reasons the normally blue state's voters elected Republican Chris Christie as governor last week. Ex-Governor James McGreevy had bonded for current-account expenses before he resigned,

(Excerpt) Read more at online.barrons.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; US: California
KEYWORDS: municipalbonds
Related story: Ravitch Says States Face Total Deficits of $500 Billion in 2011.

We know from the examples of GM and Chrysler that Democrats will sacrifice bondholders to bribe unions, their political base. The owners of municipal bonds tend to be well-off, since they benefit more from the tax exemption on bond interest, and they will be targeted by class warfare rhetoric.

1 posted on 11/07/2009 5:22:15 AM PST by reaganaut1
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To: reaganaut1

Exactly.

And the muni bond market as we know it will be destroyed.


2 posted on 11/07/2009 5:36:16 AM PST by old curmudgeon
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To: reaganaut1

Chanos was Elliot Spitzer’s procurer for hookers. Wonderful guy.


3 posted on 11/07/2009 5:55:33 AM PST by babble-on
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To: reaganaut1

This is one of the unspoken variables of the coming massive depression that we are facing.

Just as people mistakenly referred to WWI as “The Great War,” people mistakenly referred to the depression of the 1930’s as “The Great Depression.”

The coming depression will make the 1930’s look like stagflation.


4 posted on 11/07/2009 6:07:21 AM PST by Ghost of Philip Marlowe (I'd rather be a teabagger than an ankle-grabber.)
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To: reaganaut1

“The big problem, he says, is “the platinum-plated health-care and retirement benefits” given to state and local workers.”

And knowing that they could not afford these benefits, they invested heavily in high-risk instruments. Those instruments are failing miserably.

It will be kind of fun to watch the communionists, who have had a large part in destroying the economy of this country, have to go back to work for whatever menial labor they can find. They’ve been so smug with their strikes and violence to demand more from the taxpayer. Poetic justice.


5 posted on 11/07/2009 6:10:10 AM PST by Ghost of Philip Marlowe (I'd rather be a teabagger than an ankle-grabber.)
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To: o2bfree

Another lobbyist working for the California Socialists!

I guess this guy is saying that bailing out the idiots in California is of supreme importance to the rest of America. Guess what, states are rated individually. If California crashes and burns, the more fiscally responsible red states will not be affected.

I say screw em. Let California crash and burn.


6 posted on 11/07/2009 6:27:04 AM PST by o2bfree (This president is giving me a headache!)
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To: reaganaut1

A good place to monitor developments in the state/local/municipal employee pension/retirement benefits meltdown is:

http://www.pensiontsunami.com/


7 posted on 11/07/2009 7:55:57 AM PST by Blue_Ridge_Mtn_Geek
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To: reaganaut1

California has been advertising on radio to persuade people to consider buying their bonds. They advertise on conservative radio shows!


8 posted on 11/07/2009 5:51:06 PM PST by TenthAmendmentChampion (Be prepared for tough times. FReepmail me to learn about our survival thread!)
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