Rosenberg On Jobs: Horrible Is An Understatement, Fed Tightening Is On Hold Indefinitely

The Business Insider ^ | 11-09-2009 | Joe Weisenthal

[blam]

Rosenberg On Jobs: Horrible Is An Understatement, Fed Tightening Is On Hold Indefinitely

Joe Weisenthal
Nov. 6, 2009, 1:29 PM

David Rosenberg riffs on this morning's jobs report:

THE HOUSEHOLD SURVEY

To say that the Household survey was horrible would be an understatement.
This survey showed a net job destruction of 589,000, bringing the decline to 1.8 million over the past three months — more than what was lost in the entire 2001 tech-wreck-recession. All of the decline was in full-time employment, and while the bulls out there will undoubtedly point to the fact that temp agency hirings are on the rise during the last three months, finding placements for part-time workers is not a cause for celebration. Certainly not when the number of those working part-time “for economic reasons” jumped 105,000 or at a 15% annual rate, as was the case in October.

DIFFUSION INDEX STILL SHOWING WEAKNESS IN PAYROLLS

If there were even nascent signs of an improvement in labour market dynamics, then we would be seeing the workweek begin to rise. Instead, it stayed at a record low 33.0 hours last month. We would also see the nonfarm payroll diffusion index embark on an uptrend, but instead it fell back to a three-month low of 33.8 from 37.5 in September.

[snip]
(David has a sincere looking face, don't you think?)

[Mr. Jeeves]

It’s going to be very difficult to create “jobs” going forward when even healthy companies have few incentives to go through all the FedGov-generated extra expense and red tape to do so. The era of the traditional, full-time employee is drawing to a close - Obamanomics is just hastening the process. The best plan would be for the IRS and other agencies to change and eliminate current rules and make it much, much easier for individuals to work as independent contractors...but that idea pisses off both the unions and the contract placement agencies, who own many more politicians between them than workers do.

[April Lexington]

Just watch what happens to unemployment if the Pelosi heathcare nightmare passes! Lay off EVERY nonessential worker and start moving assets offshore as fast as you can. Install dumpsters at every port and airport where FORMER American citizens can toss their un-needed US passports...

[Neidermeyer]

temp agency hirings are on the rise during the last three months, finding placements for part-time workers is not a cause for celebration

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Temp agencies can really mess you up.. be careful.. I have a 3 year hole in my resume where I worked for an IT temp agency.. the agency went out of business and it's impossible for me to show (conclusively) employment for that time... employers assume I was in jail or something.

[Uncle Miltie]

The Phillips Curve, supposing a link between Fed Interest Rate Policy and Unemployment has been repeatedly disproved.

There is no link between money supply and employment.

Quit acting like there is, FED. Geez. Catch up with 1980s economics, please.

[exhaustguy]

You should still have your W2s if needed. My current employer will only verify employment - no references for anyone. The W2 should have the same effect.