seems to correspond directly with the devaluing of the dollar
therefore, for your prediction to be true... all they would have to do is continue devaluing the dollar... which has been their goal since before WW2
Posted on 11/04/2009 10:06:04 AM PST by FromLori
Here it comes, more artificial support for the housing market.
You can't blame people for speculating on houses when they know the government will come in and try to save them.
So here we are again, warping market expectations and sowing the seeds for the next housing bubble with an extension and expansion of the homebuyer tax credits.
NYT: The Senate might pass its version as early as Wednesday, and aides to Congressional leaders say the House could accept it this week, sending the bill to President Obama to sign into law. After weeks of partisan delay in the Senate, Democrats are eager to show progress before Friday, when the October jobless report is again expected to show high unemployment.
The homebuyers’ credit — enacted last year, expanded this year and scheduled to expire Nov. 30 — would be extended to cover homes under contract by April 30. Also, it no longer would be limited to first-time buyers; people who have owned a home for at least five years could get a $6,500 credit on a new residence. Income limits for eligibility would be raised, making many more people qualify.
Read the entire article here.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
The problem is bigger than our government. All they are doing is ensuring that the fallout is gonna be horrendous when this thing is fully realized.
I completely agree they are ensuring that the upcoming Depression will last for many more years.
The simple reality is their tiny policies do not matter. The economic forces are much bigger than anything they tinker with, but they are also self correcting.
The economy will recover gradually, the excess of unsold homes will be worked off, since the current build rate is easily a million units a year below ongoing demand.
The worst of it is already over. Not because of anything politicians have done or are doing or will do, but in complete indifference to all of them. What the Fed did mattered; immediately preventing large bank failures last fall mattered. None of the rest of it does.
These people are conservatives, yet will do what ever benifits THEM. I know some who have taken advantage of the GOLF CART give away. They howl and moan about the economy, yet contribute to the problem. Hypocrites.
Yes I want to bet what the Fed did was save their friends and SCREW us and it will backfire mark my words.
I predict that real GDP will be higher 3 years from now than it is today. I am talking about this time series -
Are you willing to bet against my prediction? No, I didn't say "post snarky spin", I said bet, as in money.
Put up or shut up time...
Yes I told you I am willing to bet so how do we go about it.
The series represents current GDP in 2000 dollars, using chain-weighted prices, to 1 decimal precision, reported each quarter as as annual rate. It's current latest value for the 3rd quarter of this year, listed there as the data 2009-07-01, is $13014.0, meaning the rate of GDP is currently $13 trillion a year in year 2000 dollars.
If that number is below $13014.0, then you win. If it is above that number, I win. Let's keep it friendly - just $20.
Agreed
Make sure you’re in agreement as to whether inflation is backed out of the GDP figures or not.
seems to correspond directly with the devaluing of the dollar
therefore, for your prediction to be true... all they would have to do is continue devaluing the dollar... which has been their goal since before WW2
year 2000 dollars
LOL!
Hey Brainiac ,, I’ll take your bet ... The GDP numbers/chart you posted shows a steady increase ... have you seen the same chart with the “home equity piggy bank” removed from the equation ... FLAT to -1.5% yearly since 2002. Guess what .. That’s what we have going on right now... except now we have inceased taxes and gov’t control over the economy. The only way you will show a GDP increase is because the inflation will be under reported to goose the numbers for public consumption.
Will you agree to go by REAL GDP with ACTUAL inflation numbers (the way it used to be reported before gas crisis #1) ?
I thought not.
It is real GDP, so it has already been adjusted for the purchasing power of dollars in each year.
It increases exponentially because real economic growth is an exponential. Yes, inflation is also an exponential, and the two are even of roughly the same magnitude - it is just the nominal increase in GDP runs twice the rate of the real one; the real one is still huge, ongoing, relentless, and enough to double real wealth every generation.
All that happens with recessions, which are marked on the chart as the grey vertical regions, is tiny temporary corrections in this exponential. The portion of time they cover is very small, and the total drawdown in them so modest, they always amount to a mere delay in the exponential increase, like a bump to the right in a drawer's hand.
And this one will be no different.
Doom mongers whose economic "thought" consists of equal parts ideology and journalism, unlevened by the slightest hint of scientific economic theory or empirical facts beyond a few anecdotes, never understand economic growth. They have been wrong about it since Malthus, that is for 200 years and counting, and they always will be.
There are plenty of cranks wo do not believe in real economic growth. If you divide everything through by all wealth in existence you can get a constant I suppose, that is about what it takes, and it is poppycock.
Chain weighted prices simply means in any given year, you weight each category of goods by the amount actually spent on goods in that category. If 3% is spent on computers then the weight of computers is 3% that year, if 5% is spent on cars the weight of cars is 5% that year, etc.
Fixed basket weighting with an initial basket is a clearly inferior way of measuring price changes. It tracks the price of buggy whips and pretends there is overall inflation if it is rising, even if the price of say jet aircraft is falling. Naturally they are close enough on a short enough time scale that you can use either, but once one is talking about price changes over 10 or 20 years, anyone not using chain weights makes utter nonsense.
Men who lie for a living enjoying hunting through every variation of methods and periods for the lies they want, selected always for ideological purposes. Effectively they are treating facts as optional and their politically driven theories as fixed. Men actually interested in knowing reality, on the other hand, use the best method and take the facts as they come, and adjust theory to fit objective facts.
Every competent economist knows there is real economic growth, consistently and over huge time scales, and that no, it is not an illusion of price measurement. Men pretending otherwise are flat-earthers, pretty much. Men who switch from one to the other based on who won the most recent election, are...
amusing. i always think it’s cute when economic types believe the government has no impact on the markets.
*shrug*
it is not business as usual. we have people at the helm that are steering the ship onto the rocks deliberately. the housing ‘crisis’ was manufactured, and foreseen, years before it ‘collapsed’ just 6 weeks before the election. banking ‘crisis’? ‘health care’ crisis? hilarious. all manufactured.
people like you believe its just business and only about making money, but never account for people pushing agendas with very long term profit motives.... in this case, cratering the economy and rebooting America in their own progressive/statist view of what America should be.
....have you seen the same chart with the “home equity piggy bank” removed from the equation ... FLAT to -1.5% yearly since 2002.
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