Posted on 11/03/2009 5:39:56 PM PST by GLDNGUN
With 2/3 of the ballots counted in Virginia, McDonnell (R) is pounding Deeds (D) 61%-39%. The last Rasmussen poll had McDonnell ahead 54%-41%. There's a big difference between a 22% win and a 13% win. As I suspected would be the case, it appears the GOP, especially conservatives are HIGHLY motivated, while the democrats are not.
I hope Christi wins by around 1000 votes and Corzine gets a recount and the Dems try to stuff the ballot box in front of the whole country...usually they get away with it when there are so many races go watch.
Well, if Harmer wins in California expect a 8.0 earthquake. That would be devastating to Obama & Co.
It is even worse than the Dems feared with 70% of the vote in McDonnell leads 85% to 15%.
Deeds may suffer the worst defeat since the 60s in a southern state.
It’s wonderful that McDonnel won big tonight.
But I’d wait for all three thirds of the vote to be tallied before hyperventilating. Just a friendly suggestion.
si se puede!
Fairfax County has about 25% of the entire state’s votes and it’s going to be taken by Deeds by 3 or 4%, but it’s mostly not yet reported in. This will reduce McDonnell’s victory percentage to a very respectable 56 or 57%.
Still waiting on precinct results to see if my corner of Fairfax County has stayed heavily Republican. (Pct. 803)
Jack
VA was good, but expected.
NJ will be fantastic.
NY will be HUGH!
CA is a freaking Earthquake if it happens!
The race I am most interested in is Hoffman because the Republicans need to be taught a lesson with a wake up call from the base.
Deeds appears to be pulling the 40% of the vote that will always be there for the Baraqqi coalition.
It just proves that the democrats need to become more moderate if they hope to win. LOL
Ah, no.
Please do tell....
Just a little help on your thought... :)
NJ will be fantastic.
NY will be HUGH!
CA is a freaking Earthquake if it happens!
Now now. The SRM will say it was just four statistical flukes in a row. They'll say there's nothing unusual about clusters of statistical flukes. They'll have some professor of mathematics on to explain it.
Then they'll tell us that this means nothing with respect to President Obammy, and we should get back to worshipping him.
There a problem with the Commonwealth's web site statistics - some bad data, I think. McDonnell will win with high 50's, 56-58% range I suspect as the vote rich NVA areas are going for Deeds, Arlington and Alexandria by 2:1, and Fairfax County will be very close to 50-50. That's OK, as a Republican can do quite well as long as he gets out of NVA with a 50-50 result.
Jack (in Fairfax County)
My bad, looks like it is going to be around 60-40 McDonnell.
Too bad they weren't this motivated in the 2008 election.
There's no way you can convince me that McCain would have been worse than zero. It will take decades to undo the damage that has been done in the first year of the socialist revolution.
Did you catch Rush today?
He had the democratic and white house talking points already in the can, even a few minutes before they were being spouted.
Tomorrow will be hilarious watching the spin doctors exceeding shelly doing the hoola-hoop!
“Deeds spent considerable resources during the campaign criticizing a conservatively themed thesis McDonnell wrote as a law school student – an effort that was perhaps ill-targeted. While 25 percent said the thesis made them less likely to support McDonnell (vs. 8 percent more likely), most, 62 percent, said it had no impact on their vote.”
...they’re talking about McDonnell’s paper in support of stay-at-home-moms....the Dems have been hijacked by the Feminazis so they look down on home maker mothers...they have no idea that the real world venerates this vital position in society....there are millions and millions of working mothers that would give anything to be able to do that....that’s why Deeds attack failed.
It looks like the website tallied wrong or something I saw the 80 -15 numbers too.
>> And where do you think those ballots not counted yet are coming from?
Historically, from larger cities. And Democrat strongholds.
Look, if it turns out that McDonnell DOES win 70% to 30%, I’ll be more than happy to eat crow, any way you prepare it.
I’m just skeptical that the final number will be anywhere near that lopsided. 60/40, maybe. 70/30? No way.
It is a suburban area east of San Francisco, priamrily in Contra Costa County. It used to lean well right. But after Tauscher(D) took the seat away from an incumbent republican, who is a strong conservative, the seat got gerry-mandered to pack as many Dem votes as possible into it.
Harmer-R is thought to be barely trailing Garamendi(D) and could win with a perfect storm of a turnout.
-George
why do I know so much about this? I work in Walnut Creek And whom do I work for? Think about which non-government, yet far left, private business is based in Walnut Creek.
Think dinosaurs.
>> 70-30??? ROFL Where are you getting that?
I didn’t mean to say that was your number. But on this thread 70/30 was mentioned and a number as high as 85/15 have been postulated.
By the way, you asked where the remaining votes would come from. That’s a good question. Here is a map from the Virginia Board of Elections site.
And, yes, it looks like the 60/40 ratio will hold, as you suggested it would.
Is there going to be any blowback on the water issues there?
“It’s all about TURNOUT in just about ANY election. This is why it is important to have a motivated, energized base. IF the GOP can put up a candidate in 2012 that will ENERGIZE AND TURNOUT the base, WE CAN’T LOSE.”
Actually, this is true only for close elections. Big election results, as tonight’s appear to be, usually mean a big majority of Independents have gone for the winning party.
Don’t get me wrong. Turnout is important. But in 2008, we had great turnout in conservative precincts. However, the independents voted against R’s bigtime that year. In that situation, turnout is not so important.
We will discover in the election post-analysis, that I’s broke against the Dem’s quite decisively tonight.
>> I was only trying to make the point that the strength of the conservative vote has been underestimated, not just in VA, but who knows where else.
I understand — and I really, truly hope you are right. From the bottom of my heart.
It’s an election night to be savored, especially if Corzine goes down to defeat. But it would be a huge mistake (as well as heartbreaking) to get over-confident at this point. There is much work to be done, and a long time until the really meaningful elections. That’s all I’m saying.
Conservatism is logical, practical, compassionate AT ITS CORE (not layered on top a la W), and as Rush says, it works everywhere it’s been tried. I really believe that. Therefore I believe conservatives WILL do well going forward.
FRegards
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