Posted on 11/03/2009 4:34:01 PM PST by sportutegrl
While press and pundits focus almost ad nauseum on what will happen Tuesday in New York's 23rd Congressional District, as well as the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, everyone has forgotten the battle being waged for the California congressional seat vacated by Ellen Tauscher when she resigned to become a member of President Obama's State Department.
To be sure, the 10th Congressional District of the Golden State is a Democratic stronghold, especially after some recent gerrymandering.
The latest poll shows Democratic candidate and current Lt. Gov. John Garamendi with a commanding 10-point lead over Republican challenger David Harmer, which is certainly not surprising in a district with 18 percent more registered Democrats than Republicans.
But Tuesday's Wall Street Journal opened the door for a possible upset in the making:
Mr. Harmer said internal polling showed him behind by only 2 percentage points. A lower turnout could benefit him, because political scientists say larger electorates tend to be more liberal.
Sure, every candidate's internal polling paints a rosier picture than reality.
However, as the Journal noted, this could all be about turnout, and Republicans are typically quite good at that in off-year elections.
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
I'd love to eat my words tomorrow, but I don't think it's likely.
When we went to vote this AM, there were five waiting in line to vote when the polls opened. All were Harmer votes.
One of the precinct workers was a retired freeloader who was very grumpy!
This is a highly Democratic San Francisco district. I doubt that the Republican challenger will win.
No one expects us to win this one, so even if we lose close, we win.
Well here in Ohio, the moon is especially lovely tonight. Never give up.
Are you in the 10th?
Wonder if that million dollars that the GOP gave to scuzzyfavor would have helped?
Okay all you Nattering Nabobs of Negativitism. I’m in a good mood and feeling positive about tonite. Don’t harsh my mellow.
Unless the peninsula falls into the ocean, the Republican challenger does not have a chance.
Its not anywhere near SF (30 miles east) and it is not a liberal district. Many of the dems are conservatives.
I will donate $ 20 to FR if the Republican challenger wins
Tauscher is Contra Costa County, right? That *was* Bill Baker’s seat, he was a Pubbie, and a pretty good one, as I recall- especially by California standards. I still have an appreciative letter that I wrote him, way back when in a box somewhere.
I haven’t been keeping track- that district might have been gerrymandered into oblivion since last time I voted there.
Watch out. It could be RINO.
I think it borders Pelosi’s district.
Stranger things have happened.
Its still a liberal district held by that commie Ellen Tausher
She'll die in office and get a full SEIU escort at her funeral:)
It would have insured victory! - The party didn't give Harmer a cent.
Harmer is not a RINO. He’s the real deal.
I don’t mind a Rino in a strong Dem district. Helps us win back the House. It’s when Rinos run in safe Republican districts that I get upset.
He's not a Liberal Democrat, so why would they?
No, and Blue Drewss Ellen herself always declared herself to be a ‘bluedog.’
Unfortunately, the CC Times would do nothing to expose her voting record.
Didn't hear about this one until today!
You have no idea what you’re talking about; Harmer is a solid conservative.
I’ll believe it when I see it. Little would be please me more than seeing the smug liberal smile wiped from Garamendi’s face, but this is the bay area we’re talking about.
“Not a chance.”
Agreed. But if the Republican stays within 5 percentage points that would be a great result, as it would indicate that even in such a bastion of leftist insanity as the Bay Area people are getting disgusted with the Dims.
You do have a point
Only thing on our ballot was a school board seat and we ere # 13 & 14 at 9AM but a lot of peoples have thrown in the towel and gone absentee. I wonder how to Scuzzybubba early voters felt when she showed her colors and quit over the weekend...
Maybe we can put a little scare into the Dems, even with a close loss.
I disremember who it was, but someone on the NY23 threads said several times on various threads that Harmer was very close, and that if the Republican leadership would give him the money instead of Scuzzy, it would put him over the top.
Of course they were too stupid to do that.
Maybe it’s still possible, the drawback being that in a close race the Dems will cheat. Let us hope, anyway.
The 10th contains some of the most wealthy and conservative towns in the country.
What the conservatives need to do in CA is what Hoffman did in NY. They need to nominate a Tea Party conservative and run him against districts that have a liberal Democrat and a liberal Republican on the ticket. Let the Dem and Republican split the liberal vote, while the Tea Party candidate takes all of the conservative vote. I think that California could swing conservative if they follow this strategy.
Maybe the Dems won’t bother to cheat, thinking they have it in the bag. Also, (from the article), Republicans tend to vote in greater numbers in off year elections, and this is as off year as you can get. Finally, Republicans are motivated, scared really, about the direction this country is in, while the Dems have no compelling reason to get up and vote.
I KNOW!!! They just go around here singin "I'm forever prickin bubbles... Pretty bubbles in the air."
I don't wanna wish no harm to anabody, but sometimes I start ta wish they'd git arthuritus in their fingers from typin alla their danged "conventional wizdum," but then I stop myself frum thinkin that kinda stuff before I git mobbed or shunned on this my favorite website!!!
I can hardly wait to go to the SOS website tonight/tomorrow and find that Geramandi has FINALLY been sent packing back to his ranch up here in my part of the ill-advised Schwartzenegger Sierra-Nevada CONservancy!!!
after all, remember a Republican WON in New Orleans !!!
Holy Cow, Batman.
From your lips to God's ears!
I remember it back before the leftist crackpots all migrated there- it was a wonderful place. I was born there, and miss those days very much.
I’m in Virginia now- looks like the rats are getting rousted at bayonet point tonight here- it’s like a 2-1 rout with about a quarter of the precincts reporting.
All day, I’ve heard ABC Democratic Party News say repeatedly that this doesn’t reflect on Obama’s administration. To that I answer (in my halfway decent Jeremiah Wright impression) “Obama’s chickennns...have come hommme...to roossst”.
I wish y’all well on dumping Tauscher.
Little Blue Dress Ellen is already gone; She works for Obummer now.
Ah. I moved away in 2003.
May that occur sooner rather than later. ;-)
It was my understanding that the area has seen a massive influx of lefties moving out of San Francisco. The district went for ObaMugabe with 65%, and it pulled 65% for Feinstein, and even that nutball lib Boxer got 60%. The only “Republican” it supported was Scwarzenegger, and that was in 2008. Other than that, the district hasn't voted for a Republican since 1994 (the last time it went for Baker); it went for Tauscher in 1996 (though that was a close race). From 1998 on the district went for Tauscher by overwhelming numbers.
Tauscher has been essentially unopposed for a decade due to the Republican party’s refusal to support any candidate.
The district voted for Clinton for president, Gore for president, Kerry for president, and ObaMugabe for president. It also voted overwhelmingly for Feinstein and Boxer in their respective senate runs.
“Many of the dems are conservatives.”
I have relatives up there. (My anecdotal info. is based on a discussion with my wife’s cousin a few years back)
They may be conservaive dems, but they vote dem kneejerk fashion.
And the result is Bay area very, very liberal representatives.
I doubt they could bring themselves to vote for a republican.
I would love to be proved wrong.
With 51% of precincts reporting it looks as if Harmer will force a runoff with Garamendi.
“With 51% of precincts reporting it looks as if Harmer will force a runoff with Garamendi.”
Outstanding!!
The financial situation in California, compounded from year to year by the dems, should lead a rational person to want change.
That is how my mind would work, but I am not claiming to know inside the minds of democrats, if they have any.
If the district is filled with whiny socialists, let them forever lie in the beds of their own making. Perhaps experience will eventually teach them the errors of their ways.
Perhaps not.
“Winning” back the House, as if it's just some kind of silly sports game between two equally worthy opposing teams, is an infantile way of viewing our elected government.
RINOs and Democrats just adore voters who think elections are a “merely a game”. They also love the majority of eligiable voters who refuse to “play” anymore, and simply stopped voting at all.
You may not mind if the crazed inmates are running the asylum, as long as they are your “players”, but I do.
I don't think we are on the same “team”.
That's because there's no television in Cuba. Had to wait for Castro to broadcast. :-)
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