Posted on 11/02/2009 4:54:27 AM PST by markomalley
Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman was primed to win Tuesday’s special election both before and after Republican Dede Scozzafava dropped out, according to a new poll.
The Public Policy Polling survey shows Hoffman leading the race by 17 points, 51-34, over Democrat Bill Owens with Scozzafava still in the race and taking 13 percent. In a straight head-to-head matchup with Owens, Hoffman’s lead held at 54-38.
The poll was conducted over the weekend, during which time Scozzafava dropped out of the race Saturday and endorsed Owens on Sunday, but Hoffman led significantly at all stages.
Scozzafava dropping out of the race was initially seen as a boon to Hoffman, but this polling suggests her dropping out and backing Owens might have been his only hope to defeat Hoffman.
As it turned out, the poll shows that Scozzafava was taking such a negligible share of the vote that her exit probably didn’t matter. And she will remain on the ballot, so even those who were going to vote for her still can.
Siena is supposed to have another poll out soon, and we'll see if its results square with PPP's.
Could be a blowout. Fingers crossed for tomorrow. Go New York. (except in baseball ;-)
Her internal polls were most likely showing the same thing. She didn’t want the embarassment of finishing third in the race. I think it’s clear that she did not have the Republican parties (or conservatives) best interest in mind when she dropped out.
I think Rudy and Pataki’s endorsement of Hoffman have blunted any damage she could do. She can now go join the dumbocrats like she wants to anyways. Methinks her national career is done before it got started...
It would be such a delicious slap in 0bama’s face!
Praying for a hard thumping of the Dems tomorrow.
VA — Dems OUT
NJ — Dems OUT
NY23 — (keep the) Dems OUT
NO win for the donks tomorrow — not ONE.
I’m also going to go out on a limb and say her staff saw the internals and knew that in order to get someone from the right side of the aisle elected, she needed to drop out. Her own staff may have forced her out by saying they would quit if she didn’t. Her own campaign manager has come out in support of Hoffman. That’s a little stunning. You would think her staff would just stay silent.
Just a little congressional race a full three years before the next presidential election, but yet it provides the clearest indication of exactly who all the major candidates are: Here are my grades from a conservative perspective.
Sarah Palin
First on October 22, Sarah Palin came out on her Facebook page with a strong endorsement of the Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. A clear shot across the bow of the GOP establishment favoring principle over party. Palin cited Reagan’s ‘time for choosing’ and the principles of “smaller government, lower taxes, strong national defense, and a commitment to individual liberty “. Palin’s bold action against the party establishment further established her strong conservative credentials. GRADE: A
Tim Pawlenty
Three days after the Palin endorsement, Pawlenty followed suit and endorsed Hoffman. He gave a solid endorsement. But Pawlenty seems jealous of Palin’s popularity and appears just trying to keep up with Palin among the conservative wing. Pawlenty scored a few points with conservatives for doing the right thing, but would have come out a bigger winner if he endorsed sooner. GRADE: B -
Mike Huckabee
On October 15, Huckabee made it very clear he could never support a pro-abortion candidate, but yet did not endorse Hoffman despite saying he agrees with him on most issues. Huckabee had a chance to publicly be the first leading candidate to make the endorsement, but instead showed he feared going against the establishment. Huckabee has now finally endorsed Hoffman, but only after Scozzafava threw in the towel. GRADE: C -
Mitt Romney
“I have chosen not to endorse the Republican candidate in New York’s 23rd District.” Basically identical to Huckabee, but Romney did not articulate why he could not endorse Scozzafava and gave no praise to Hoffman. The thought of going against the GOP and supporting a conservative did not even appear to cross Romney’s mind. GRADE D
Newt Gingrich
Not only did Newt endorsed Scozzafava, but he attacked those who dared support Hoffman. Gingrich completely mischaracterized this election, insisting it was anti 10th Amendment to go against the party operatives to endorse the conservative. Newt’s star has fallen far since leading the 1994 revolution, and instead of being a visionary is now a simple establishment guy. Now, hypocritically he has finally endorsed Hoffman. GRADE: ZERO
I hope Hoffman pulls this out tomorrow. I won't make a prediction as my history of political prediction is hideous.
Looking forward to tomorrow popcorn ready!
Planeloads of ACORN/SEIU in transit.
It is honestly a real shame about Newt. I had the pleasure of voting for him as my congressman when I lived in Georgia. There was a time when he was articulate, innovative and courageous in his conservatism.
I can’t bring myself to hate the guy and I still feel like he can contribute to the conservative cause here and there. But his days as a leader of conservatives is over. It’s just a damn shame.
I agree with you. Newt was great when he worked with and for us.
Kinda makes you wonder what was in the FBI file that the Clinton’s had on him...
Please Please Please let this be true.
That’s why Hoffman has to win by a huge margin,
to keep the fraud from having an effect,
and to keep ACORN’s “Secretary of State Project” from stealing the election from the winner (as in Minnesota).
The RNC should Steele themselves for the unemployment line. There is where our next effort should lie.
I think the Dems will win in the special election in CA (10th district). Garamendi should beat Harmer, but it will be a lot closer than it should be in a deep blue district.
Newt lost me when he got in the global warming bed with Al Sharpton.
Just got a call from Newt Gingrich PAC from 866-611-4385....boy did she get an earful....she just said ‘ok,ok’ and wanted to hang up and I kept letting her have it!!!!
Everyone. Eagles Up! Do ANYTHING that you can do in the next day. Outside of the Free Republic Bubble, talking just to ourselves, preaching just to the choir.
Be proactive and find a way to help in the NY-23rd, even if you are miles and states away form this election district--you can do so by phone and fax and e mail. The Obama White House has thrown down the gauntlet. They cannot suffer a MASSIVE OBAMA PR LOSS if this district goes to Conservative Doug Hoffman.
Crunch time, folks.
And that Conservative GOP guy in California, too, needs to whip that Democrat’s ass, in the Congressional race. Dont forget that one. If there was a four for zero clean sweep, HOW IN THE WORLD WOULD THE MSM REPORT IT? I guess they would have to find a typhoon in Asia or earthquake somewhere to settle in on, to change the subject.
I wish I could vote in NY.
“That’s why Hoffman has to win by a huge margin,
to keep the fraud from having an effect,
and to keep ACORN’s “Secretary of State Project” from stealing the election from the winner (as in Minnesota).”
We cannot count on that, and if we do not do the following, expect Minnesota all over again
1) Monitor all polling places.
2) Verify the votes(each one)
3) Count each vote
Maybe the MSM can arrange for Indonesia to be flooded again?
Kudos to Fred Thompson, perhaps the earliest supporter with a national reputation to put it on the line for Hoffman.
Why would it?
Because Romney needs to do a lot to win over the conservative base, but he is still showing how tone deaf he is. If Romney wants to win, this is he time for him to act like a real conservative, and not the country club republican he is.
Her endorcement of the Dem was useless to help him, it was a spit in the eye at Hoffman and the conservative wing of the Republican party, that is all.
Based on this polling, all she had following her it appears were the hard core Republican party loyalists, the minute she dropped out they were either going to stay home or go for Hoffman, given she endorced a Dem, I’d say few are going to stay home now out of disgust and outrage at her.
Looks good in NY 23 and VA... NJ is the only one tight at this point.
Romney cannot win the conservative base, Fauxbama care part I and his mishandling of gay marriage in MA have assured he has ZERO shot at being the nominee. This guy executes like a wishy washy moderate then tries to campaign as a Reagan conservative, its disgusting, disingenuous and not going to sell. Didn’t sell last time, won’t sell this time.
Huck and Romney were laughable in 08 as serious contenders for the Presidency, and are non starters in 12, they just can’t seem to realize it.
They are welcome in the Party, but they will NEVER be the standard bearers.
I want to see another public poll confirming this....
Boy, a Hoffman win, a Christie win, and a Virginia clean sweep would be very very sweet tomorrow!
This sounds GREAT!
GOOO Hoffman (and Sarah Palin!)
My prayers have been that conservatives unite. But also not just strut around because we won ONE election. We need to get back into the game. Like Football player after a touchdown. Their goal is to win the game and that should be ours.
Whatever decent things he he said and did are long in the past.
They got the goods on Newt, the fix is in, you can use your imagination to surmise what it is they have, but Newt is pwned by the Rats and RINOs, which may be the self-same entity.
Fred Thompson was on Fox & Friends this morning and he was looking good, much better than in the last presidential race.
The chance that Dede is a “moderate” is the same chance that the Oakland Raiders will win the SB in the next 10 years.
Gee, one would think that Dede’s endorsement would make this contest a slam-dunk for Owens, right? < / sarcasm >
Too bad Fred is too old to run in 2012. He’s the only one from the whole primary class of 2008 whom I could enthusiastically support again, with the possible exception of Tom Tancredo.
I pray that Sarah gets in with both feet. If not, I could support Fred Thompson again, despite his age.
Maybe Newt is the Left Wing and main stream media’s pick for the 2012 elections just like McCain was. They may try to ram him down our throats.
Newt’s belief in global warming was not a deal breaker for me. To me if someone is conservative on the vast majority of issues and liberal on one issue I’ll still call them a conservative.
My waning support for Newt has been a drip, drip, drip. I disagreed with him on global warming but if that was his ONLY flawed viewpoint the support would still be there.
If you mean 'Filegate', its zero.
FBI background files obtained by the Clinton administrationIf you take a good look the majority are complete nobodies. Why Hildebeast wanted the files is anyone's guess, but most of the people are known only to their mother.
Or maybe Hillary 'Wide load' Klintton just liked digging into people's files who had funny names like
'Mary Stewa Smallpage Bailey', 'Terheran Janes Brighthaupt', 'Susan Beatrice Fertig-Dukes', 'Lottie Boatwright Graham', 'Dominador Teodore Julian', 'Margaret Van Wagenen Carpenter', 'Ponifilio Ventrescaor, or 'Viola Belt Wall'.There's a couple 'famous' names like Linda Tripp and James 'snake head' Carville, but only a hand full.
I have always felt it was simply another instance of the *because we can* power-trip stuff. She didn't want them to trove for stuff to use on people later, she wanted people to be afraid she would trove for stuff to use later. Look how it well it worked, that people are still *wondering*.
Well.. I don't want to offend anyone but IMO the only people still *wondering* are those who were 'someplace else' during the Filegate Scandal and the Klintoon era.
Maybe they weren't into politics then, or didn't have a computer and Internet access. But that list has been 'all over the place' and by now everyone should know there was no there, there.
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