Posted on 11/01/2009 7:07:53 PM PST by SeekAndFind
Good news, but with lots of caveats.
Here are some interesting facts from our unweighted numbers so far:
-In a three way contest Doug Hoffman leads Bill Owens by 19 points. In a two way contest Hoffman leads Owens by 15 points. So the Dede Scozzafava withdrawal and endorsement will probably tighten the race some but not nearly enough.
-58% of Republicans think that Scozzafava’s a liberal and that was obviously before her endorsement today.
-The Rush Limbaugh effect- Hoffman has a 79 point lead with Rush listeners while Owens has a 6 point lead with people who don’t listen to the show.
On its Twitter account, PPP flatly states that it expects Hoffman to win easily. Now the caveats: (1) Every other pollster thinks the race is close; (2) the White House evidently thinks so too given their outreach to Scozzafava (which, allegedly, included a phone call from Rahm Emanuel); and (3) PPP has a sample problem given that they started their poll before Scozzafava dropped out yesterday and kept it rolling on through today’s bombshell endorsement. That’s a lot of new information for respondents to assimilate on the fly and it guarantees that only part of the total sample will be reacting to Scozzafava’s switch. In fact, so dynamic and convoluted is this race — for example, just as I’m writing this, I’m hearing that Scozzafava’s campaign manager has endorsed Hoffman — that Nate Silver at Five Thirty Eight has given up on trying to make a prediction, claiming that he wouldn’t be surprised if either Hoffman or Owens wins by double digits. (How’s that for a margin of error?) And he adds a fourth caveat to PPP’s blowout forecast: If Scozzafava thought that her supporters would defect to Hoffman after she withdrew, she wouldn’t have withdrawn, would she? She’d have stuck around for two more days until the election to help out her pal the Democrat by keeping those votes from DH.
But look. As gratifying as it would be to see Hoffman win, the guy didn’t become a conservative grassroots cause celebre because people are dying to see Doug Hoffman in Congress. He’s a cause celebre because conservatives wanted to send a message to the GOP about the future of the party, and that message has now been sent — and received, to the tune of $900,000 down the toilet — regardless of what happens on Tuesday. The party can still get away with putting up socially liberal Republicans in select purple districts next year, but fiscally liberal nominees are going to earn them either a primary challenge, a third-party challenge, or a disaffected base spending election day at home. And a Hoffman defeat will do nothing to change that. As for sending a message to Democrats and The One, that’s already been achieved too thanks to the looming landslide in Virginia for McDonnell and the fact that, even if Corzine wins a squeaker, it’ll only be because Zeus himself had to carry his ass across the finish line in what’s normally a dependably blue state. All of which is to say that Tuesday will be a good day no matter which way the polls in NY-23 and New Jersey end up tilting.
Exit question: Is Newt planning to comment on Scozzafava’s betrayal, perchance? He’s tweeted four times since she made her announcement and not a peep out of him about it yet.
Update: Ah, my mistake. Newt did comment on it, as an update to a blog post on his site:
Scozzafava did the right thing in dropping out. I am, however, deeply dissapointed that she has chosen to back Owens over Hoffman.
I am endorsing Doug Hoffman and believe everyone who wants to create jobs with lower taxes and to control spending and deficits should vote for Doug Hoffman Tuesday.
Follow the comments over there. Right now.
Just a little congressional race a full three years before the next presidential election, but yet it provides the clearest indication of exactly who all the major candidates are: Here are my grades from a conservative perspective.
Sarah Palin
First on October 22, Sarah Palin came out on her Facebook page with a strong endorsement of the Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. A clear shot across the bow of the GOP establishment favoring principle over party. Palin cited Reagan’s ‘time for choosing’ and the principles of “smaller government, lower taxes, strong national defense, and a commitment to individual liberty “. Palin’s bold action against the party establishment further established her strong conservative credentials. GRADE: A
Tim Pawlenty
Three days after the Palin endorsement, Pawlenty followed suit and endorsed Hoffman. He gave a solid endorsement. But Pawlenty seems jealous of Palin’s popularity and appears just trying to keep up with Palin among the conservative wing. Pawlenty scored a few points with conservatives for doing the right thing, but would have come out a bigger winner if he endorsed sooner. GRADE: B -
Mike Huckabee
On October 15, Huckabee made it very clear he could never support a pro-abortion candidate, but yet did not endorse Hoffman despite saying he agrees with him on most issues. Huckabee had a chance to publicly be the first leading candidate to make the endorsement, but instead showed he feared going against the establishment. Huckabee has now finally endorsed Hoffman, but only after Scozzafava threw in the towel. GRADE: C -
Mitt Romney
“I have chosen not to endorse the Republican candidate in New York’s 23rd District.” Basically identical to Huckabee, but Romney did not articulate why he could not endorse Scozzafava and gave no praise to Hoffman. The thought of going against the GOP and supporting a conservative did not even appear to cross Romney’s mind. GRADE D
Newt Gingrich
Not only did Newt endorsed Scozzafava, but he attacked those who dared support Hoffman. Gingrich completely mischaracterized this election, insisting it was anti 10th Amendment to go against the party operatives to endorse the conservative. Newt’s star has fallen far since leading the 1994 revolution, and instead of being a visionary is now a simple establishment guy. Now, hypocritically he has finally endorsed Hoffman. GRADE: ZERO
Why do I have trouble believing Newt’s statements are heartfelt? Am I so much a cynic that I believe he is a two faced opportunist?
I like your grades - you would make a great teacher...heh.
I sure hope that these quick polls are even close to right - would love to see Hoffman win by a large margin and put the GOP establishment to shame...
No...just a realist!
Has Scozzafuzza or whatever her name is given any reasons for endorsing the democrat?
parsy, the curious
.... Newt a two-faced opportunist? Wow! Just wow! Ask is former wives.... Look at the high ground the Newtster took in delivering the divorce papers.... Bastard is the most polite description to cover his behavior.
Honestly, who cares if his thoughts are “heartfelt?”
Honestly, who cares if his thoughts are “heartfelt?”
Smells like sour grapes to me...
DeDe Scuzzbuckets endorsement of Owens is likely to boost Hoffman even more.
Newt is a very articulate spokesman for whatever it is he’s supporting at the moment. For a while it was conservatism, but now it’s not so clear.
I heard the other day that Newt was thinking about running for President. Then a few days later he endorsed Scozzafava. My first thought was that he stepped in it big time and conservatives won’t trust him now. I certainly don’t.
Other side of the coin : If she were so sure, her supporters would defect to Owen, she wouldn't have had any need to endorse Owen would she?
Most of Scozzafava’s supporters to start off with, were Republican voters who out of habit, vote for the Republican candidate, whoever they may be. By having the Republican Party endorse him, Hoffman grabs the default Republican votes, in addition to grabbing all the conservative votes. Then there are the "undecided's"(about 12% of the vote right now) who usually break for the canidadate in the lead, in this case, Hoffman.
In reality, probably no one. But it would be better if he was experiencing some sort of epiphany and could be counted on not to repeat this idiot mistake in the future. I don't have any hope that is the case.
Yes.
Cause the few real Republicans that are still backing Scozzafava, will see that she was a Democrat, under a Republican skin all this time, and dump her.
I'm thinking Newt would be another McCain. The country doesn't need that.
The former campaign manager of Scozzwhatever tonight endorsed Hoffman.
Either way, it doesn't speak well of him, though endorsing Hoffman may be a saving grace of a sort.
New PPP poll has Christie UP by 6 over Corzine...
The fun race to watch Tuesday night might be the Congressional race in California.
That one seems be slipping ‘under the radar’...could be interesting.
It’s the Northern East bay District. Richmond, etc....
I don’t think the Dem is in ANY trouble there. Last poll I saw had the Repub Cheering that he was within 10 points!
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