Posted on 11/01/2009 6:51:57 AM PST by blam
High Exposure To Equities? Be Careful Out There
By: The Housing Time Bomb
November 01, 2009
I just wanted to hop on tonight and issue a warning to anyone who has participated in this rally or has a high exposure to equities.
The price action Friday was absolutely frightening! I guess it was perfect timing considering Halloween was Saturday night. IMO it is time to lighten up considerably if you are on the long side.
As most of you know, this blog focuses more on the macro/long term outlook on the economy. I have remained consistently bearish because we have not fixed the problems that continue to plague the economy.
When I see nasty sell offs like we saw Friday, I feel compelled to at least warn everyone that IMO the market is not reflective of the economy. I really don't want to see anyone get hurt like many did in 2008. I remain convinced that we still haven't seen the final capitulation sell off that will finally end this nasty bull market.
I recently have rarely discussed trading because the market simply hasn't traded based on any fundamentals. I tend to run away from markets like this because it's easy to get slaughtered when the bottom drops out! 2000 ring a bell?
The problems remain the same: We are not doing the things that are needed to fix this economy over the long term. We continue to spend money we don't have in an attempt to stimulate the economy. This approach has been a colossal failure. Consumer spending which is 70% of our economy continues to contract as the economy tanks.
Making matters worse: Banks continue to refuse to lend, unemployment continues to soar, and the end of the housing collapse appears to be nowhere in sight.
Here is a perfect example: Fannie Mae announced today that their 90 day delinquency rate has tripled:
NEW YORK, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Fannie Mae (FNM), the largest provider of funding for U.S. home mortgages, said on Friday that delinquencies on loans it guarantees accelerated in August, while its mortgage investment portfolio grew in September from the previous month.
The delinquency rate on loans in its single-family guarantee business gained 0.28 percentage point to 4.45 percent in August, the most recent data available. A year earlier it was 1.57 percent.
Quick Take:
B-b-but Wall St said the recession was over! Yeah Riiiight. Are you all tired of continually being lied to yet? Only a fool would believe that a recovery is right around the corner.
BTW, We had 9 more bank failures Friday night. Here is the list in case you are worried about your deposits:
North Houston Bank Houston TX
Madisonville State Bank Madisonville TX
Citizens National Bank Teague TX
Park National Bank Chicago IL
Pacific National Bank San Francisco CA
California National Bank Los Angeles CA
San Diego National Bank San Diego CA
Community Bank of Lemont Lemont IL
Bank USA, N.A. Phoenix AZ
The Bottom Line:
Things are bad and getting worse. We have now had two 90%+ down days on the S&P in the last three days. This is a sign of panic selling folks. We also broke through the key resistance level of 1042 on the S&P after closing at 1036.
This could possibly set us up for another sell-off on Monday. I am starting to believe that the market technicians may be back in control of this market. This market is folding like a tent after seeing a 50% retrace.
Many TA traders are now worried we may be seeing the beginning of the famed "cataclysmic wave C down". I am not sure we are there yet because the bulls become emboldened after this retrace. They may believe a 10% pullback will create a "buying opportunity". Yeak OK, Good luck with that one!
If wave C down has really arrived we could see a devastating collapse in the market. I have said since day one of this rally that there was no liquidity behind it. It was a government backed stimulus rally.
The stimulus is now done and there is no money left for round two. We are trillions in the hole and the dollar will get crushed if the government attempts to go on another spending binge.
If you have been long I think now might be the time to take some profits. Cash looks like the best option in the near term because there may be some buyers on this pullback.
I will be taking a long dated short position on the S&P via SPY PUTS on any rally because I believe this will be the bulls last stand. Once the Fed stops buying MBS in March it's going to get really ugly.
One last point. Take note that gold and silver held up rather well despite the sell off. Does this mean the world is continuing to lose confidence in the dollar despite it's recent rally? This is certainly something worth watching.
Yep, that all sounds about right to me. I’ve been amazed at the strength of this last rally, but it was after all a bear market rally.
Anyone have an updated chart showing the DJIA for this “recession” versus Great Depression One? Last I saw they were tracking remarkably closely.
Don’t forget the lowest level of the DJIA during GD1 was 10% of the peak before it started. That corresponds to a level of 1400 today. It will likely hit that level in pre-inflation (2006) dollars.
The catch 22 of this whole sorry mess, they banks have no choice but to de-leverage, and that is eating up all of their funds and they still are lying on their balance sheets.
I like a person who is willing to put their money where their mouth is ...
This particular strategy is very sound, low cost, and not very risky at all.
Consumers are 70% of the economy - and savings rate now is finally moving above 0% after years being negative. That means consumers (especially older ones nearing retirement) are saving, not spending. Also, recent GDP report showed that disposable income is DOWN. Finally, consumers are all facing higher TAXES, and they know it.
There will be NO consumer-lead recovery.
Sure reads like it is going to be a long cold winter.
http://thereformedbroker.com/2009/10/18/comparing-this-decades-nasdaq-to-the-1930s-dow-jones/
[The catch 22 of this whole sorry mess, they banks have no choice but to de-leverage, and that is eating up all of their funds and they still are lying on their balance sheets. ]
The banks are bankrupt and the federal government is too. The only way out is to inflate, doesn’t matter what the market does or the fed says in the short term.
I sold all my equities this past week, but who knows? Considering my track record for the past two years, we may now have the greatest bull rally in history.
I just got tired of worrying every day about the long-term effects on equities of Obama’s borrow-spend-tax-and-control brand of thuggish Marxism. One-year CDs at 2.00% (they can be found) at least allow for a little more sleep at night, even if the government guarantee seems to be more and more worthless every day. Maybe a huge inflation is coming, or maybe it’s deflation and a depression. Or as I hope, maybe the American economy is so strong that even Obama and Pelosi cannot ruin it despite their obvious efforts to do just that. At least cash and near cash may allow a little room to maneuver as this thing plays out.
Go John Galt, whatever that means in the current situation!
No one knows, for certain, what the market will do short term.
I’ve been watching this carefully. Thanks for posting.
Is there an index for "insider" selling/buying, or some reliable source that shows an average? It's so time consuming to go through thousands of financial reports to get that info.
The technicals say that a huge drop is coming, probably Monday.
Wouldn't suprise me. I'll be watching the Asian markets tonight. I'll post something on them.
Ping for 11/02.
Which Monday?
Many poeple misinterpret the ratio. 18 to one is not far from normal.
This coming Monday or last Monday?
Perhaps it is because our government seems to be run by liars and thieves and voted upon by a good people who are demoralized and beaten down. I suspect this will not last, as the present promise of prosperity will prove illusory not for a lack of faith, but for a lack of liberty and honesty.
I got out of most of our stocks in early Sept. and am still glad that I did. There most certainly going to be another leg down to help the dollar rally.
In fact, I came across an odd factoid a few months ago that it was not the first crash that destroyed most people in 1929, but is was the second crash, AFTER the bear rally that REALLY wiped people into the poor house.
PM’s, cash and a few longs.
Earnings continue to be good and the Feds are pumping money into the system. To early to be short.
Ping to sell all stocks tomorrow.
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