Posted on 10/31/2009 8:46:29 AM PDT by mondoreb
SCOZZAFAVA's DROPPING OUT: WHO DOES IT HELP?
HOFFMENTUM!
Dede Scozzafava is suspending her campaign in New York's 23rd Congressional District.
From BREAKING: Scozzafava suspends NY 23 campaign:
Republican Dede Scozzafava has suspended her bid in next Tuesday’s NY 23 special election, a huge development that dramatically shakes up the race. She did not endorse either of her two opponents -- Conservative party candidate Doug Hoffman or Democrat Bill Owens.Scozzafava has “probably made her last campaign appearance between now and Election Day,” spokesman Matt Burns told POLITICO. “She’s releasing her support to the two other candidates." "I had a discussion with her last night, and we made the decision after I spoke with her. We talked about it, what this came down to was spending. It came down to the ability to defend herself from the get-go. And that’s the reality. She was unable to define herself where the people didn’t know her."
Who does this benefit? And who does this hurt?
There has been some speculation that Scozzafava siphoned off liberal votes from Democrat candidate Bill Owens. In this line of thought, with Scozzafava in the race, it benefited Doug Hoffman's Conservative/Independent bid.
But the last polling data that this writer saw, Scozzafava supporters were 2-1 Republicans. So that would seem to indicate her dropping out would be a big benefit to Hoffman.
Recent days have seen Hoffmentum! taking place with even Tim Pawlenty and cautious members of Congress climbing on board the Hoffman bandwagon--once it got rolling.
(Excerpt) Read more at deathby1000papercuts.com ...
It does NOT help the GOP/RNC. If she supports the dim, it is OVER for the GOP/RNC.
I guess we’ll find out on election day.
i disagree i think if she supports the dem it will prove all of us right that she was just a front for the dems. but i think she will support hoffman! great news
“Dede Scozzafava suspends her campaign for NY-23’s congressional seat. Who does it help—and hurt?”
Well, it reduces the baby-killer candidate count by half, so I’d say our side wins. GO HOFFMAN!
Don’t forget what happened in Maryland’s 1st congressional district. When conservatives rose up and defeated the rino, the rino endorse the democrat just before the election and the dem won in a very close race.
NEVER TRUST A RINO!
SCREW NEWT, STEELE, AND THE RNC!!!
I think it helps Hoffman. I think it is good. Might help Newt, too, as he had gotten himself into somewhat of a pickle.
It helps America. Conservatism has sent the RINO Party a message.
My goodness! Thats one fugly woman inside and out!
A democrat hasn’t won in that district since the civil war.
I think Scozzafava is doing this today in an effort to screw Hoffman, and I think it's being done by orders of the GOP establishment who don't want to see a third party or conservative win.
I think it will split close to even. I’m sure much of her core supporters will either vote for the dem, or stay home.
Does anyone know the "early voting" situation there? If half the registered voters have already voted, the effects of Dede's withdrawal will obviously be diminished.
Is the NRC going to get behind Hoffman & run ads for him?
This is a GOP district, this seat has been held by the GOP since the Civil War. The guy they are replacing is a solidly Pro Life social conservative.
More likely most of these people are voting for the R next to her name, not Dede's views.
Wow! All good points.
The latest polling data I saw showed that Scozzafava’s support was 2-1 made up of Republicans.
But it had been argued that she was so liberal, her staying in the race benefited Hoffman.
If Hoffman wins, and that’s looking more likely from my point of view, Sarah Palin is one BIG beneficiary for backing him early on.
Newt remains a loser on this issue, in my opinion.
Politico has this story now too. A quote from that source is “A senior Democrat said the party will work to get Scozzafava to endorse Owens in an attempt to pick up some of her moderate supporters.”
So, overall, positive news in the right direction, but this election is not over yet. Beware the RATS looking to pick up Scuzzy’s endorsement.
I think you're completely correct on the first half but not so sure on the second. Still I wouldn't put it past them.
Yes. The Politico report said that Scozzafava’s letter dropping out contained this:
“I am and have always been a proud Republican. It is my hope that with my actions today, my Party will emerge stronger and our District and our nation can take an important step towards restoring the enduring strength and economic prosperity that has defined us for generations.”
That would indicate she won’t endorse Owens, the Dem.
Delusional. You have a liberal Republican and a conservative Republican splitting the vote against a Democrat. Her votes will easily break 2:1 for Hoffman.
Nonsense, most of her core voters were voting for the R next to her name. This is a GOP distinct. The guy they are replacing is a solid social Conservative. Doubtful most will suddenly decide to vote for the D now. Most will either stay home or vote for Hoffman.
It has to help Hoffman. However many people knew she was a liberal, it cannot compare to the people who would pull the lever for the one with the “R” next to her name. In the absence of that R, they will go with the next thing they understand, and that is avoiding the “D”.
This is the year of the tea parties. The year of people no longer supporting RINOs. In a solidly Republican distinct, I would expect that all of the solid Republican would be supporting the candidate with good Republican values -- by which I mean Hoffman.
The folks who STILL supported the egregiously Liberal Scozzafava in this year of the Tea Parties? I simply have to conclude that they have more in common with Owens than with Hoffman.
They are now free to support a major party candidate or a third party guy. I think Owens will benefit.
I can’t see her die-hard supporters pulling the lever for Hoffman. Too much pride; too much humiliation. More likely, they just won’t vote.
This district used to be much more conservative when Griffiss AFB was open. Many of the conservative voters left the district. But the Department of Defense is still one of the largest single employers in the district.
“But it had been argued that she was so liberal, her staying in the race benefited Hoffman.”
I just don’t see that, given how automatically people vote for the major parties. People would have voted Republican anyway. I know this story has been well-publicized, but don’t be surprised if voters still don’t know who the heck these people are. In the absence of a Republican, people who would otherwise vote Republican still won’t vote for a Democrat.
Remember the GOP establishment in that district got her the nomination so you have to assume she was supported by way more Republicans than Democrats. By withdrawing from the race that does free up her Republican supporters to back Hoffman. Remember a vote for Owens is a vote for Obama, and I just don’t think in this political climate solid long-time Republican supporters are going to vote for Obama en masse, especially with the Messiah’s declining poll numbers and the health care bill staring Americans in the face.
She undoubtedly does have some die-hard supporters who are committed to voting for her personally. I don’t know how large that group is, but it is unlikely to vote for Hoffman. I’m hoping that her remaining supporters split heavily for Hoffman. If they do, he should win.
MD-01 will be a gimme retake next year.
I think so too. The RNC needs to do a lessons-learned from this election and plot a path that Conservatives can support. Or, the RNC will see more of these third party candidates . . some of whom may not win.
It changes some, but not all that much. Her name is still on the ballot.
If Hoffman loses (they hope) they can point fingers at conservatives as “ruining” the GOP.
Now if only Corzine would suspend his campaign...lol.
NEVER TRUST A RINO!
you are SOOOO correct!
A RINO is really a DEM plant and will poison the well when things are not going favorably for them.
She will endorse Owens.
She is obviously chilly too.
Her son sure looks pissed off in the posted picture. Next thing you know he’ll be hurling his flip-flops at Hoffman! :)
It seems to be hurting Fox News’ Carl Cameron. He was just reporting on it and when the desk guy Brian asked about implications on the presidential level, Cameron looked like he was taking a pie in the face. Glumly he mentioned everything but Palin, and seemed to be complaining about dirty tricks against Dede. Mentioned moderates with a poignant pout. He left the impression that the evil, gleeful tea party people brought poor Dede down. I’ll try to find a video later.
This is as pure a test of “just run a true conservative/dump the RINOs” as there could ever be.
If Hoffman wins, it’s all good. If he loses a 100-year GOP seat, it’ll be time to kiss some RINO ass.
She's a saggy bags hag.
I think you are right.
The GOP of late seems to enjoy “eating their young.”
I believe the majority of attacks and “insider B.S. info leaks” on Sara Palin came from within the GOP!
I am SO disillusioned with the GOP!
We seriously need CONSERVATIVES and they can no longer be found in the Republican Party.
We are answering this as informed Freepers. Most of the voting public are going about their lives with very little time or desire to study and understand politics. Many of those will simply answer a poll or vote based on the “D” or “R” behind the name. It’s a toss-up what they will do now.
But the RINOs have been sent a message for 2010.
WAKE UP CONSERVATIVES!!!
We are into the fight or flight phase, and MOST of us say FIGHT APATHY, CORRUPTION, and the RINO status quo.
Fight FOR the CONSTITUTION and WHAT IS RIGHT.
“A senior Democrat said the party will work to get Scozzafava to endorse Owens in an attempt to pick up some of her moderate supporters.”
Humph! Why would they even attempt such a thing unless they KNOW she is one of them?
The Conservatives need to get people to the polls. I suspect that the enthusiasm for Owens is not that strong among the libs given that the libs control every branch of the government in spades right now and a single conservative is not going to change that one bit.
Let us pray for complacency among the libs and enthusiasm among the Conservatives. That will push this into a double digit victory.
If Scuzzy endorses the DEM Newt, Steele, et al....will be AGAIN shown the FOOLS they are!
Newt got the Boot!
Pray for America’s Freedom
Agreed.
Newt has NEWTERED himself.
I don’t know, but I presume that she will remain on the ballot. It’s too late to remove her. So, quite a few knee-jerk Republicans might vote for her anyway.
If she had dropped out earlier, before the Republican Leadership had managed to smear pie all over their own faces, then it would have been a shoe-in for Hoffman. Now, it’s a two-way race between Conservative and Democrat.
But since Hoffman was already leading, hopefully he will win. Whatever happens, the RNCC will look extremely stupid and inept, and that’s certainly a plus.
But here’s hoping Hoffman wins. That would be super great!
Great news! I was very concerned about the split vote. We have lost so much because of this before.
I read on an earlier thread when this was just a rumor that she was throwing her support to Hoffman.
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