Skip to comments.Can Bob McDonnell Really Get 31% Of The Black Vote?
Posted on 10/28/2009 8:12:40 PM PDT by freespirited
The latest SurveyUSA poll showing Virginia Republican gubernatorial nominee Bob McDonnell with a 19% lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds (which would be the biggest win for any Virginia Governor of either party since 1961) has some interesting internals. One of the strangest findings is that McDonnell is getting 31% of the African American vote.
Is this possible? Well, the smart money would say no. But if you want to construct an argument for SurveyUSA being correct, consider the following:
(1) In 2006, George Allen came about as close as he could have come to dropping an "n-bomb" on a person of color without actually saying that particular word. Throughout the campaign, Democrats consistently brought up racial incidents in Allen's past. And the Republican label was radioactive nationally. Allen still got 15% of the black vote.
(2) Doug Wilder's (Virginia's first black governor and former mayor of Richmond) non-endorsement of Deeds has received a ton of attention.
(3) McDonnell has been competing quietly for the black vote in his commercials. One advertisement has featured businesswoman Sheila Johnson, a Democrat who endorsed McDonnell, while another features numerous African American Deputy and Assistant Attorneys General.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com ...
Seems to me that 20-25% is overly optimistic, but IMO anything above Allen's 15% should be considered an achievement.
Based on the assumption most decisions are made off economics rather than race, consider that parts of Virginia around Washington and Richmond have a very wealthy black electorate.
This isn’t “inner-city” politics we’re talking about.
Is he 31% black?
I think the author of this piece may be over-analyzing the matter. In fact, let me suggest that the "macaca" comment may even have helped Allen among blacks.
Remember that Allen's comment clearly involved an Indian-American, not an African-American. Remember also that there's often a good bit of mutual animosity between Indian-Americans and African-Americans -- meaning perhaps that some members of the latter group were pleased when Allen dissed the young Indian-American videographer.
I live outside of Richmond and while there are not many black families around here many have Obama bumper stickers on their vehicles.
Black voters are taken for granted by one party. It’s as if the Dems. can pencil in 90+% of the black vote in most elections.
There would be a sea change in our politics nationally, if Republican candidates could consistently get in the area of 30% of the black vote.
Getting over 10% of the black vote is probaby due to low black turnout. The Libs at Public Policy Polling are concerned about low turnout among 18-29 years and blacks in the Va race. Many Dems are demoralized and seriously considering not voting in VA. Obama’s visit to Norfolk was about stopping the bleeding.
That's an excellent point.
On election night, you'll probably see some all-black precincts in Norfolk and Richmond giving McDonnell 2% of the vote. That does not mean that he got 2% of the black vote statewide. Those blacks who remain in "the 'hood" by economic necessity or by choice will remain faithful to the Dems; those blacks who are upwardly mobile increasingly vote their self-interests.
If the GOP got 30% of the Black vote, while holding onto usual White percentages, the Democrats would suffer massive casualties. It’s why they work so mightily to keep them on their slave plantation.
Contrary to popular belief, Republicans have gotten a decent share of the black vote in races before. It’s when the Republican because a national candidate or a “controversial” candidate among their self appointed leaders that they suddenly swing a hard partisan line.
However, I’m speaking theoretically. It doesn’t happen all the time and I’m not saying it would here. I’m just stating it theoretically is possible. 50%? No way in hell.
Strategy, strategy, strategy. Doesn’t anyone just plain want to do the right thing for America and her people?
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