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Buy Food – Price Rises Are Almost Guaranteed
The Telegraph (UK) ^ | 10-25-2009 | Garry White

Posted on 10/28/2009 2:38:29 PM PDT by blam

Buy Food – Price Rises Are Almost Guaranteed

By Garry White
Published: 7:50PM GMT 25 Oct 2009

There are two main drivers of commodity prices – supply and demand. This is just as true with soft commodities such as wheat, rice, sugar and cocoa as it is with copper and tin. The big problem for your weekly shopping budget in the future is that there are problems on both sides of the equation that are likely to squeeze prices higher, permanently.

However, this also provides a great investment opportunity and now is a good time to buy into many areas of food production and distribution.

In September, sugar prices hit a 28-year high after the failure of crops in India due to the poor monsoon season. Prices have fallen about 20pc since then, but are still likely to charge ahead over the longer term.

Cocoa prices are also close to a 30-year high after a mixed harvest in Ivory Coast. Production of the bean is expected to be 100,000 metric tonnes lower this year than the 1.22m tonnes produced in the country last year.

[snip]

(Excerpt) Read more at telegraph.co.uk ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: commodities; deflation; economy; food; foodprices; inflation
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
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1 posted on 10/28/2009 2:38:31 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam

Buy Food – Price Rises Are Almost Guaranteed

_______________________

lol. That British sense of humor is quirky and amusing.


2 posted on 10/28/2009 2:40:27 PM PDT by Responsibility2nd (I am Legend)
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To: blam
Deflation? Not If You're Buying Food
3 posted on 10/28/2009 2:40:40 PM PDT by blam
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To: devolve; blam; ntnychik

I hate to grocery shop so when I go I stock up. Went yesterday and was surprised at the rise in price of almost everything!


4 posted on 10/28/2009 2:46:57 PM PDT by potlatch (Actions Speak Louder Than Words)
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To: blam

My wife said that our grocery bill is going up by 10% a week! At Walmart!


5 posted on 10/28/2009 2:50:36 PM PDT by albie
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To: blam

I bought hamburger meat last week at Food Lion for $0.98/lb. Haven’t seen that low a price in a long time.


6 posted on 10/28/2009 2:54:51 PM PDT by DannyTN
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To: DannyTN

Apparently, a lot of dairy farmers are tossing in the towel due to low milk prices (sending their herds to slaughter).

If so, that sounds like higher milk and beef prices in the future.


7 posted on 10/28/2009 2:58:37 PM PDT by SnuffaBolshevik
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To: SnuffaBolshevik

Thanks for that.

I just read an article that said supply was still expected to outstrip demand and we could still see dairy prices fall in the grocery stores.

Apparently export demand has dried up for dairy as well.


8 posted on 10/28/2009 3:05:15 PM PDT by DannyTN
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To: blam

I get annoyed seeing the ever diminishing product contents in the packaging. Ice cream, coffee, ricotta cheese (just saw that while shopping for ingredients for lasagna a few weeks ago). I’m sure there are others.

How about paper towels, laundry detergent, etc. It’s hard to keep a household budget.


9 posted on 10/28/2009 3:12:59 PM PDT by tropical
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To: tropical
Thanks to another FReeper directing me to Hillbilly Housewife on the net, I've learned or relearned meal planning. Lot's of stuff I would buy “ready to make,” I can now make ahead of time. Silly combinations of things like pancake mixes, biscuit mix, etc. even Cup of Soups.

Other recipes/meal planning has taught me how last nights leftovers can make a whole new lunch/dinner menu for the next day by adding a few spices from a different ethnicity. Example is hearty 13 bean soup, become been burritos the next day.

I think a lot of families have lost the art of real meal planning in our ready made world. Sure it takes some time to readjust to it, but it has been worth the effort. The family knows something is different, but like the changes that have lead to real home-cooked delicious foods.

10 posted on 10/28/2009 3:24:27 PM PDT by EBH (it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute a new Government)
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To: EBH

And thank you for mentioning the website in your response to me. I will check it out.

I’m glad your homemade recipes are a hit with your family and using leftovers can make a difference in stretching the family budget.

I found a recipe for homemade laundry detergent that I am going to try. When I finally get around to it, I’ll let you know how it works!


11 posted on 10/28/2009 4:33:16 PM PDT by tropical
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To: potlatch

.

Prices will continue to rise for food

Recall the tv video of Obama’s face when he said “Under my plan electric rates would necessarily skyrocket.”

He knew he was on camera - you could see Obama performing his acting job as he attempted to disquise his pleasure


12 posted on 10/28/2009 4:44:39 PM PDT by devolve ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . "Hey - Know what? I*d like a wider seat!" . . . . . . . . . . .)
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To: blam

Chase the loss leaders.

Spend the rest on dried beans.


13 posted on 10/28/2009 4:47:41 PM PDT by Glenn (Free Venezuela!)
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To: devolve
[Prices will continue to rise for food]

You know how I shop, don't go often for a huge order. I was surprised because the jump even in canned goods was not just a few cents. Most canned veggies were over a dollar apiece, I can still recall 3 for a dollar, etc.

Probably cheaper here than up north too.

14 posted on 10/28/2009 5:12:43 PM PDT by potlatch (Actions Speak Louder Than Words)
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To: EBH

Just looked at Hillbilly Housewife and bookmarked the site.

Very interesting....Thanks!


15 posted on 10/28/2009 5:13:16 PM PDT by azishot
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To: devolve

Here in the US, the harvesting of wheat and corn are being hampered by rain.

Poor summer weather here in maine hurt grains and potatoes.

We’re fortunate that we grow most of our own food (for three of us). We do a lot of canning and ‘puting by’ of food. We swap with others in our area who are better at certain things that we are. Last week we even bartered fresh raspberries for lobster.

From farm to fork, prices are going to go up. Fertilizer, transportation, processing,etc..

We also watch all the stores for sales and bargains. When it’s cheap we buy more. We’ve turned a spare room into a pantry.

My city friends think we’re a little paranoid or amusingly strange. My country friends think we’re ‘gettin’ smarter’ and give us tips.

Did I forget to mention ammo ? When welfare checks won’t buy enough, people are going to go looking for it.


16 posted on 10/28/2009 5:13:29 PM PDT by maine yankee
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To: potlatch

.

3 for a buck

Memories

ShopRite still has good buys

Pre-plan from mailed flyers

But it is a pain and I like to shop close by and quickly

What you can save on sales you can easily spend on gasoline and maintenance and insurance


17 posted on 10/28/2009 5:20:26 PM PDT by devolve ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . "Hey - Know what? I*d like a wider seat!" . . . . . . . . . . .)
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To: potlatch; maine yankee

.

You can never have too much gun

.44-40 Winchester cartridges (My big vintage Colt) traded or lobster and beef?

Blue Glasers are nice stoppers

Like to see them tag or ID those


18 posted on 10/28/2009 5:27:05 PM PDT by devolve ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . "Hey - Know what? I*d like a wider seat!" . . . . . . . . . . .)
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To: blam


Frowning takes 68 muscles.
Smiling takes 6.
Pulling this trigger takes 2.
I'm lazy.

19 posted on 10/28/2009 5:27:12 PM PDT by The Comedian (Evil can only succeed if good men don't point at it and laugh.)
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To: devolve
I avoid going to the football field sized super grocery store and go to a smaller ‘family owned’ one. They are a tad higher to begin with but have better meat and just all the basics.

I KNOW I save a lot by not seeing plants, makeup, clothes, etc, etc. Tempting things that I don't even need, lol.

By the way, I am getting some extreme slowness here at times.

20 posted on 10/28/2009 5:29:14 PM PDT by potlatch (Actions Speak Louder Than Words)
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To: potlatch

.

The long deli counters and the shrimp -

Yeah the big stores have it all -

-

Yup - slow at times here too


21 posted on 10/28/2009 5:48:42 PM PDT by devolve ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . "Hey - Know what? I*d like a wider seat!" . . . . . . . . . . .)
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To: devolve

[The long deli counters and the shrimp -]

Shrimp they have, but not all the ‘fancy stuff’. The things that look too good to resist and cost a lot more too.

Slowness comes and goes, when it happens it is really slow and I am on cable.


22 posted on 10/28/2009 6:01:25 PM PDT by potlatch (Actions Speak Louder Than Words)
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To: Glenn
>>>> "Chase the loss leaders. Spend the rest on dried beans. " <<<<

Wise advice. Also make a point of strolling through each of your grocery stores, to make sure that you don't miss a clearance table, or a mishmash of items put together in a grocery cart, priced to sell FAST.

Also, occasionally when you shop, bring along only 25 dollars and imagine that that's all the money you have left to feed your entire family for the next week.

LOL - that exercise will show you how spoiled we all really are.

Really, though, it's pathetic what the price of staples are nowadays, it's like everything has doubled in 4 years, with no good reason why. Rice, Dried beans, Legumes, Oatmeal, Millet, Sugar, Flour, Cocoa, canned veggies, etc. -- the one good thing about these very basic simple non-processed stapless is that, one or two at time, they frequently are on very good sale - during which one can buy multiple items, stock up when they aren't so expensive.

23 posted on 10/29/2009 7:17:43 PM PDT by hennie pennie
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To: potlatch
>>>> "I was surprised because the jump even in canned goods was not just a few cents. Most canned veggies were over a dollar apiece, I can still recall 3 for a dollar, etc." <<<<

I agree with you. I go to the grocery stores around here at least twice a week, and I was shocked this week at how everything seemed to have risen in price, as you say, not by a few cents or a nickel, but more like a quarter to forty cents. It's scary.

The only way I've found to keep the food budget at all under control is to always have two vegetarian-type homemade bean soups available - one simmering on the back of the stove, and the other all ready to be heated & eaten the next day. Seriously, having a large bowl of homemade soup each & every day cuts way down on spur of the moment hunger cravings for expensive processed junk food.

Also, both hot oatmeal and homemade plain hot cornbreads are very filling, as well as inexpensive -- particularly in comparison to almost everything else in the store. And you can also do "lots" with pancake night, to make it a popular supper, LOL.

24 posted on 10/29/2009 7:30:11 PM PDT by hennie pennie
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To: hennie pennie; devolve
[more like a quarter to forty cents]

Yes, I almost wrote 40 to 50 cents higher! It was amazing.

There is a French name for how you do your ‘simmering soup’ and I can't think of it right now. I read long ago that they would continuously keep a pot of soup going and add things each day!

Beans, rice, noodles, potato's, filling things. Who knows where it's going to go before long and I don't garden like many.

You sound very smart in your choices.

25 posted on 10/29/2009 7:41:50 PM PDT by potlatch (Actions Speak Louder Than Words)
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To: azishot; EBH; tropical; nw_arizona_granny
You can also find a treasure trove of frugal ideas & advice and thousands of recipes on Granny's Free Republic messagethreads. Here is a link to the current one - feel free to jump right in, or to ask questions - it seems that many active posters have links for virtually anything FRUGAL.

On that thread, I just received at least half a dozen new homemade soup recipes - already tested on another poster's family, and confirmed to be popular with them.

Weekly Roundup - Living On Nothing Edition [Survival Today - an On going Thread #3]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2299939/posts

26 posted on 10/29/2009 7:44:18 PM PDT by hennie pennie
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To: potlatch
Interesting! Here I thought I was being a tightwad, but instead I'm do French Cuisine. Kewl!! I'll have to keep my eye out for that specific French term, LOL!

Also, in books about the cooking habits and diets of the Colonies and early American pioneers, there always is mention of a pot of beans boiling away all day long on, either in the fireplace, or on the back of the woodstove. THAT is part of the secret to decent bean soup - cooking it LONG enough; another thing we moderns don't often know is that you should us a HEAVY steel pan or a HEAVY cast iron pot to boil your bean soup in. Makes ALL the difference in the world, lol!

27 posted on 10/29/2009 7:51:36 PM PDT by hennie pennie
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To: potlatch

.

Large frozen pre-cooked shrimp

Bubba Burgers with onion


28 posted on 10/29/2009 7:52:43 PM PDT by devolve ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . "Hey - Know what? I*d like a wider seat!" . . . . . . . . . . .)
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To: devolve

Lol, large frozen shrimp aren’t exactly economical!


29 posted on 10/29/2009 8:04:18 PM PDT by potlatch (Actions Speak Louder Than Words)
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To: blam

Deer season is coming up soon. Stock up on bambi meat. Big PETA fan. People eating tasty animals.


30 posted on 10/29/2009 8:08:14 PM PDT by Texas resident ( Doing my part to piss off the heathen left.)
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To: hennie pennie

I used to have all the cast iron stuff and over the years I gave it all away.

Found the pot of soup on Google;

Pot-au-feu

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pot-au-feu

This tells of a lot of things but in books I just read that they keep that ‘Pot au feu’ going all the time!

NOW YOU CAN BE FANCY ABOUT IT, LOL!


31 posted on 10/29/2009 8:10:53 PM PDT by potlatch (Actions Speak Louder Than Words)
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To: hennie pennie

Thanks! I’ll be sure to check it out.


32 posted on 10/30/2009 3:43:57 AM PDT by tropical
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To: hennie pennie

Thanks for the link!


33 posted on 10/30/2009 5:01:26 AM PDT by EBH (it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute a new Government)
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To: blam
Sorry to bother you, but the link to the article entitled, DEFLATION? NOT IF YOU'RE BUYING FOOD doesn't work, can you check it, OR better yet, post that article as a thread to FR?

I did a seach for

title:deflation

to do a quick search for all thread titles containing the word deflation, but didn't find your article.

I've been reading lots of your postings about the economy, but I had NO idea that SO many news articles are currently being written about the imminent threat of severe deflation.

YIKES.

34 posted on 10/30/2009 6:31:48 AM PDT by hennie pennie
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To: hennie pennie; All
Search for articles containing the word 'DEFLATION' in the title

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/search?m=all;o=time;q=quick;s=deflation

FR Search for Keyword: deflation

http://www.freerepublic.com/tag/deflation/index?tab=articles

35 posted on 10/30/2009 6:39:48 AM PDT by hennie pennie
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To: hennie pennie
"Sorry to bother you, but the link to the article entitled, DEFLATION? NOT IF YOU'RE BUYING FOOD doesn't work, can you check it, OR better yet, post that article as a thread to FR?"

I just clicked on it and it worked for me. Regardless, click here, I've linked it again. The article is from The Telegraph (UK)

36 posted on 10/30/2009 8:04:05 AM PDT by blam
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To: hennie pennie
Roubini Sees Market Crash All Over the World
37 posted on 10/30/2009 8:14:35 AM PDT by blam
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To: blam
Thanks so much, I've now printed off that article -- I should have checked on google, as it's from March/2009 and not just news.google.com, LOL -- this article reads like a correct psychic prediction, what a scary blast from the past!

Several posters in this thread have noticed a definitely price LEAP in canned goods - not that I normally buy any of this stuff when it's not on sale, but still... to see so many items obviously increase so suddenly anywhere from a quarter to around 40-cents is pretty disconcerting.

CONSUMER TIPS
Deflation? Not if you're buying food
Some grocery prices have almost doubled in the past year, despite the Retail Price Index falling to zero... Anyone shopping at their supermarket today will be tempted to scoff at the revelation that prices have not risen at all over the past year, according to the Retail Price Index (RPI).

Some foods have almost doubled in price since this time last year, figures from The Telegraph's Real Cost of Living Index (RCLI) show. Cucumber portions, for example, have risen by 88pc, while staples such as mince beef (up by 48pc) and Basmati rice (43pc higher) have also become much more expensive.

...Other foodstuffs to have risen sharply in price include strawberry jam (up by 34pc), baked beans (32pc), Golden Delicious apples (29pc) and bolognese sauce (27pc), according to the index...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/consumertips/5048554/Deflation-Not-if-youre-buying-food.html

(NOTE: I think it might be such a long URL, that perhaps my link won't work, it doesn't "look" right in the preview version, so cut & paste may be necessary.)

38 posted on 10/30/2009 10:10:23 AM PDT by hennie pennie
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To: All
Food will never be so cheap again

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2370801/posts

Dated October 25, 2009

39 posted on 10/30/2009 11:04:13 AM PDT by hennie pennie
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To: hennie pennie
Look at this, this is what the price of a can of Wal-Mart brand (Great Value) diced tomatoes has done over the last six months. I don't remember the exact time frames but here is how the prices changed:

* $0.48

* $0.54

* $0.92

* $0.63 (Presently)

Can anyone explain these prices.

BTW, the price of beans & bacon soup went from $0.68 to $1.08 overnight.

I know these prices because I have been hoarding.

40 posted on 10/30/2009 11:43:10 AM PDT by blam
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To: blam; DelaWhere
Nope, I cannot explain it, but I can make a few predictions -- many Americans will simply refuse to purchase canned food at such exorbitant prices. It's definitely time to stock up on canning jars & lids, and to order seeds & fertilizer NOW, just in case BIG FOOD doesn't get the message, LOL, that their product is NOT worth that much money.

Say, I recently read elsewhere that the Dollar General Store has just slashed the prices of all their canned Libby's Veggies, and I predict that all other food retailers will have to follow.

Perhaps Dollar General has a better handle on their inventory and has come to realize that a 49-cent can of veggies MIGHT sell for 60-cents, but NOT for 89-cents, LOL.

Another thing that I am finding strange nowadays, is that a can of corn or of peas or of diced tomatoes in creeping up to a dollar a can; yet in the exact same store, you can find stuff like 3 Large tins of SPAM for five bucks.... or 6 cans of tunafish for three dollars.

It doesn't make anysense to be able to buy 3 large cans of Dinty Moore Stew for the same price as 5 measley cans of processed tomatoes. I mean what has more food value -- 3 cans of diced tomatoes or 5 cans of tuna??

If these prices continue through to next year, I predict that alot of America's food manufacturers will go bankrupt, and that in part, bankrupcy will result because people who absolutely refuse to pay these outrageous prices will start growing CROPS in their front & back yards.

For instance, three years ago I could buy a bag of dried black beans for 59-cents; last year they were around $1.29 and this fall, many are priced at $1.69.

ONE DOLLAR AND SIXTY-NINE CENTS FOR 3 CUPS OF DRIED BLACK BEANS???

Huh?

A can of diced tomatoes for a buck??

Excuse me??!

LOL

TINY little cans of Campbells Bean with Bacon Soup, in my area, priced at over 2 bucks a piece?? These people are nuts.

41 posted on 10/30/2009 12:07:21 PM PDT by hennie pennie
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To: blam; nw_arizona_granny; Velveeta; MamaDearest; WVKayaker
Blam, I just returned from the grocery store, and the Campbell's Bean with Bacon Soup was $1.69, just like at your Walmart.

So I decided to pick up a package of dried navy beans and make homemade bacon bean soup. Just a small 16 oz. bag. Can you imagine what a pound of dry navy beans cost?

$2.33

That was the generic variety; and the generic canned navy beans were $0.99, and a can of the SW White Beans was on sale for $1.05.

QUESTION, Blam -- Is this what happens when the Dollar seriously loses its value? I thought that when the dollar lost value that exports became very cheap - wouldn't a commodity like navy beans be inexpensive?

Back during the Y2K scare, what were navy beans? Maybe 37 cents a pound? I don't recall, but I don't remember them being anywhere near a dollar, much less TWO DOLLARS AND THIRTY THREE CENTS.

What would be the name for this, that so many people all at the same time, throughout the country, notice that prices have jumped on lots of FOOD items? -- Is it the devaluation of the Dollar, or does it indicate rapid sudden inflation? Or...?

Say, I wonder what navy beans are priced at, elsewhere? Maybe we've got a local shortage?

Thanks.

42 posted on 10/31/2009 2:24:00 PM PDT by hennie pennie
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To: hennie pennie
" It's definitely time to stock up on canning jars & lids, and to order seeds & fertilizer NOW, just in case BIG FOOD doesn't get the message, LOL, that their product is NOT worth that much money. "

Thanks. I did that last year.

43 posted on 10/31/2009 2:42:12 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam; All
Blam, I hope you don't mind my sharing this information from a B.L.O.G. -- however, if this is accurate, presumably being reported by Bloomberg, I thought you'd want to know about it:

IRRI Says India May Import Rice, Fueling "Panic"

http://socioecohistory.wordpress.com/2009/10/31/irri-says-india-may-import-rice-fueling-%E2%80%98panic%E2%80%99/

This is looking like the repeat of early 2008 when the price of rice escalated. 2009 has been a bust for farmers. The world is suffering from massive drought and inconsistent rainfall.  With global grain stocks at dangerously low-level, this can result in global famine starting in Q2 2010. Bloomberg reports:

India, the world's second-largest rice grower, may become a net importer for the first time in 21 years in 2010, potentially sparking the kind of "panic" that sent prices to records in 2008, an agricultural economist said. India may import as much as 3 million metric tons next year after the wet season harvest plunged...

44 posted on 10/31/2009 3:45:29 PM PDT by hennie pennie
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To: hennie pennie
Perhaps those beans were imported?

Pesticides detected in frozen beans imported from China

White Navy Beans - China

Flour - China

Campbell's Soup imports tomato paste from Mexico for it's products , wtiness:

Litigation imported Campbell's tomato paste

45 posted on 10/31/2009 5:32:57 PM PDT by MamaDearest
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To: blam; hennie pennie

I’m late reading the thread about grocery prices. We quit shopping at Walmart except maybe twice or three times a year for items we cannot find (reasonable prices) elsewhere. I love V8 juice or its generic counterpart. Walmart raised the price of their generic to about a buck and a quarter more than it used to. I priced it at my local Kroger store and found it for 89 cents a can. We bought a bunch of it there. You have to beat them at their own game. IMHO they think because they price a few items less than elsewhere, they expect you to shell out the difference on other items because you are already there, in their store and too tired or too lazy to shop elsewhere. That’s where they lost me. I shop for the lowest price for the product I want and/or need - or wait until it comes on sale somewhere. Call me stubborn, call me cheap, but my money only goes so far and I’ll spend it frugally in these troubled times.


46 posted on 10/31/2009 5:39:45 PM PDT by MamaDearest
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To: MamaDearest
o.m.g. - thanks for these links, I'm saving them for tommorrow morning, as they look like good nightmare material, and its too close to bedtime.

They were a national generic brand called "flavorite," truly nothing special, whatsoever.

I would have thought navy beans were from North Dakota or Utah, but maybe we are exporting our entire legume harvest? And importing inferior product from China?

I avoid wheat & gluten, so the only Campbells I've eaten in decades is the Bean With Bacon - which has an obvious tomato base, or else their Chunky Chicken Cheese Broccoli - both are way overpriced, and nothing to write home about, LOL

Campbells recently changed their Tomato Soup recipe for the first time ever, since it was first developed in 1887. They reduced the salt about 30%.

47 posted on 10/31/2009 6:03:47 PM PDT by hennie pennie
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To: hennie pennie

Soups and stews taste great, and don’t waste food that way. Older folks too, like them way better than just a steak, even - because the meat is more tender than any steak after simmering all day.

What I learned is to feed more people, nothing goes to waste and learn to stretch what isn’t wasted. For example when we used to go camping, somebody would always fry up a mess of bacon and pour the grease into the fire. Bad idea, because with just a few tablespoons of flour and condensed milk, regular milk etc or cream, very fine gravy can be made to ladle over taters and biscuits, another easy way to fill the bellies and draw high praise from the camp.


48 posted on 10/31/2009 6:29:26 PM PDT by Freedom4US
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To: Freedom4US; nw_arizona_granny
I've read that during the depression, many families made a gravy from lard, cornstarch & milk, (and I supposed with salt & pepper,) and that this gravy was eaten at one meal of the day, every single day for years & years - whether it was poured over bicuits, bread, rice, potatoes, noodles - the Cornstarch Lard Milk Gravy was a mainstay staple for years for many hungry Americans.

The bacon grease you mention sounds like an excellent addition to the version I've read about.

49 posted on 10/31/2009 6:52:56 PM PDT by hennie pennie
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To: blam

Technically, since none of those items are rationed, you are not hoarding; you are merely stocking.


50 posted on 10/31/2009 6:55:51 PM PDT by editor-surveyor (The beginning of the O'Bomb-a administration looks a lot like the end of the Nixon administration)
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