Dollar Hegemony For Another Century

The dollar will still be the world’s dominant reserve currency in 2030, sharing a degree of leadership in uneasy condominium with the Chinese yuan. It will then regain much of its hegemonic status as the 21st century unfolds. It may indeed end the century even stronger than it was at the start.

The aging crisis in Asia — and indeed the outright demographic implosion in Japan and China, not to mention China’s water crisis — will soon be obvious to everybody. Talk of Oriental supremacy will start to sound overblown at first, and then preposterous.

Japan is about to go bankrupt. It is on the cusp of a fiscal crisis that will change perceptions of Asia dramatically. The IMF says gross public debt will reach 218pc of GDP this year. This is compounding very fast. It will be 246pc in 2014.

Every economic powerhouse on the planet is experiencing a population crises. Japan and china are imploding faster than anyone could imagine possible.

Europe is also imploding(including russia) but the europeans are getting replacement citizens from the middle east and turkey. How long they can remain an economic powerhouse while being replaced by uneducated barbarians is unknown. Are the immigrants being educated and socialized fast enough? Since so many of them appear to be extremists, I would guess the answer is NO.

Americans are also being replaced by uneducated hispanics. They do seem to assimilate in a few generations just fine. But whether or not they are learning to respect our constitution is a different matter. I suspect they are not learning this since they all go to public schools and these things are no longer taught in public schools. And they can’t learn from their parents what their parents do not know.

India, brazil, turkey, and iran are question marks. They do not have excessively high reproduction rates like the third world countries typically do. They are getting more and more industrialized and more educated. I would predict that as these nations become more and more westernized, they too will experience a population crisis just as the other big economic nations are.

So one starts wondering...when does a peoples’ population implosion start to level off and start to return to normal? I don’t think we’ve ever seen this particular cycle in a developed nation before. We don’t know when the population bottoms out and when it starts to rebound. we probably won’t know the answer since the bottom will probably not be reached during any of our lifetimes. This is just my guess.

I disagree with the author who says that the US will not do something as fool hearty as wracking up debt. The government hasn't controlled spending for nearly 30 years. I don't believe they are simply going to willy nilly make a U-turn to pay it off.

Instead, I believe there will be a General Motors style of restructuring that will have to happen (except on a national level) where debts will have to paid pennies on the dollar, "car dealerships" (i.e., businesses) will have to be shut down immediately, etc. and Americans will have to face gut wrenching financial crisis. And there will be many many unhappy people out there. And it's not going to be pretty. And there will be alot of talk about the 250 million guns out there and grumblings about a UN sympathetic federal government. I personally don't take that view (the anti-federal view), but I know that sentiment is out there alive and well and is pervasive amongst a large segment of the US population.

So, I'm not so confident that the debt problem in America will be solved so easily.

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