Posted on 10/20/2009 4:05:52 PM PDT by Son House
Listened to an interesting talk today by Jared Bernstein, chief economist to Vice President Joe Biden, at a New America think-tank conference on job creation. A few observations:
1) If Bernstein’s talk was any indication, don’t look for much public celebration by the White House if we get some good 3Q and 4Q GDP numbers. As he put it, “Absent robust job growth, it is not a true economic recovery.” He stressed this point several times. I don’t even think you will hear an administration official use the word “recovery” in 2009.
2) Bernstein trotted out several interesting slides — which I am hoping to get hold of — that displayed the severity of the job market’s woes. It really seems like the big problem is not so much layoffs as it is a lack of hiring. Thus the high numbers of long-term unemployed.
3) He didn’t hint at much appetite for the grander second stimulus ideas like a job investment tax credit. (CBO would probably score such a plan as costing $75 billion a year or so, according to an earlier speaker.)
(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.reuters.com ...
In unveiling the report, Jared Bernstein, the chief economist for Vice President Joe Biden, said it shows the administration is “solidly on track” to accomplish its goal of saving or creating 3.5 million jobs by next winter.
Writer James Pethokoukis is plainly wrong about layoffs not being a devastatingly large problem.
That said, the high numbers of the long-term unemployed are easily explained by the Marxist Obama administration's (and the Dem Congress') outright hostility toward the producer segment of the economy. No sane business owner would be hiring seeing the storm clouds of socialism on the horizon.
This high number of unemployed thingy is nothing less than a lost jobs QUAGMIRE, and taxing the productive engine of the economy to death will not hire back one peep.
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No worry. Obama’s got some great ideas. How about pulling the rug out from under our (barely) free-market but robust just the same health care industry, scramble it and remake it as a taxpayer funded entitlement costing trillions of dollars while raising costs and taxes/fees and decreasing service and quality for all? And while we’re at it, why not yank the foundation from under our energy sector, scramble it, and “revolutionize” it with “green” technology that’s not even here yet. Yeah, great idea. And might as well slap a new carbon tax on energy and increase the costs of every product and service manufactured, distributed or transported in America (and around the globe) and increase the costs of fuel, electricity and heating to every inhabitant while you’re at it. Might as well go through with your plans to bankrupt the coal, oil, gas and energy sectors and bankrupt the whole damned country. Of course that’s after bankrupting the housing, finance, banking, manufacturing and transportation industries. Other than that, Obama is a financial genius. Recession? Depression? How about scorched earth?
The right hand doesn’t know what butt opening the left hand has a finger in.
Its a depression...just ask Biden
Yep, Bernstein says one thing to the DC crowd, and then releases a outright lie, well, unless you figure in the jobs saved /(1/2)Sarc and that would be the latter half
a little background on the venue where the speech was given:
The New America Foundation is a non-profit public policy institute and think tank located in Washington, D.C.. It was founded in 1998 by Ted Halstead, Sherle Schwenninger, Michael Lind and Walter Russell Mead.
In 2007 Steve Coll, a former managing editor of The Washington Post, succeeded Ted Halstead as President of the New America Foundation. Well-known board members include political commentator Fareed Zakaria, Christine Todd Whitman, international relations theorist Francis Fukuyama, Atlantic Monthly correspondent James Fallows, former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson, and economist Laura D’Andrea Tyson. Google’s CEO, Eric Schmidt, is chairman-elect of the foundation.[1].
Thanks for that, seems to lend itself to thinking he was saying one thing to the DC insiders, while releasing a false impression to fly-over country
free MS program to view PP:
Thanks too, here’s that link, I think the html mess up somehow;
http://www.newamerica.net/events/2009/jobs_defict
No wonder they get along so well with the “Palestinians”.
FYI - Ping to #13 with link at #16.
Fixing this is easy....tax cuts...cap gains cuts...regulatory relief at all multiple levels.
The can drive the dollar down as far as they want....but if K St and Congress refuse to get their boot off the neck of the American job machine....and deregulate like Reagan did in 1982...business will not invest as long as they think that the kleptomanics in DC can’t keep their hands to themselves.
This legislation will create and save 3 to 4 million jobs, rebuilding America,
“In the nation, this bill will provide 3.5 million jobs in the next two years,” said Klobuchar, adding that she thinks there is a public misconception as to where those jobs will be created. “Ninety percent of them will be in the private sector,” she said.
Yep, that's how logical applied economists are. Jobless recovery is incomplete but true nonetheless if the GDP grows.
Excellent point and well worth repeating.
The truth is, there has never been a RECOVERY package; what we have seen was a REFORM package. I wish the Reps stopped arguing whether the "stimulous package has worked," and called out the Obamites' lie, telling the American people that their economy is being reformed rather thatn rejuvinated.
FDR did the same thing in 1930s: using the frustration of the American people, CHANGED the economy towards a fascist one. For instance, price-fixing by the government --- 250,000 prices fixed in the steal industry alone -- entailed prison sentences for a discount given on drtcleaning.
Have a look at 6 of the Bernstein Slides from Post# 21 to Post#28
Have a look at 6 of the Bernstein Slides from Post# 21 to Post#28
Have a look at 6 of the Bernstein Slides from Post# 21 to Post#28
Have a look at 6 of the Bernstein Slides from Post# 21 to Post#28
gREAT INFO !!!
One more slide could be the private sector Jobs Congress and the White House are destroying
As he put it, “Absent robust job growth, it is not a true economic recovery.” He stressed this point several times. I don’t even think you will hear an administration official use the word “recovery” in 2009.
He is right to press the point, it makes sense both economically and politically.
1. We don't yet have "economic recovery", as the large part of the economy still struggles with trying to grow revenues amid sectors' deflation, weak dollar and related inflation in certain commodities, such as oil, and fighting the "Obama effect". What we have is the "earnings recovery" due to continuation of severe cost cutting, which has started even before financial crisis, and we are no longer in the midst of a financial liquidity crisis and bear raids on financial institutions which were reminiscent of bear raids during Great Depression.
2. Politically, they can use "slow economy" and "unemployment crisis" to keep pushing more deficit spending and statist legislations and regulations, and they would want to have more financial "stimulus" kick in next year, which is why their "porkulus" was designed to be back-loaded to start most of its spending February 2010, to have most effect on the elections.
So, downplaying the "recovery" now is not any kind of admission of their failed policies, but rather a setup for extending the blame for current conditions on "previous administration" and rampimg up to the 2010 election season's "recovery" however it will be defined at the time. It's a "constant campaign" mode, just like Dems had with Clinton.
I don't have a chart, but there is almost a direct correlation between recession and higher unemployment about a year or two after the increases in minimum wage. And there are sound economic principles to show that in this case correlation is causation.
And that recovery will be based on Government spending to raise the GDP numbers, the private sector still be stuck in their Jobless recovery
You might call the stimulus a REFORM package, but it is exactly what Clinton did after his election, except on a much larger scale ---- it is a Democrat payback package!
Meanwhile, we need to come up with a better counter-argument for the question of 'why the recession happened in the first place?' The standard answer from MSM that we keep hearing (and seem to be accepted even by some Republicans & conservatives) involves two points. The recession was caused by (1) Greedy Wall Street capitalists, and (2) lack of control on the part of Bush Administration because of their free-market ideology.
Unless we can come up with a better, concise counter-argument, people will always blame Bush, and unfortunately by extension, the Republicans and the conservatives.
Thanks for the ping
I looked at Bartik's charts, and also read much of the material provided at the symposium link: http://www.newamerica.net/events/2009/jobs_defict
My bulletpoints:
Even the far-left (nearly communist) rag, "The Nation," published an article, The Jobs Solution, that made these observations:
History teaches us that no nation can simply borrow its way to sustained prosperity. ...We also need to address immediately the decades of misguided trade policies that led to the transfer of millions of US workers from export industries into less productive and often lower-paying service jobs. ...
And from Financial times - Healthcare Can Get America Working:
But efforts to get America working again must be informed by the striking fact that most employment growth in the past decade has been concentrated in three sectors: healthcare, education and government, mostly state and local public services. ...But green jobs, on closer inspection, mostly turn out to be manufacturing jobs that can be offshored or low-wage, low-skill construction jobs. To make matters worse, even with huge federal, state and local subsidies, solar and wind power combined provide little more than 1 per cent of US electricity consumption. The prospects for the expansion of renewable energy without vastly greater subsidies and taxes on fossil fuels are not encouraging.
My takeaway, on reading the aggregate, is that this troupe of clowns don't have a clue how to "fix" what's wrong, but they are determined to step in, when stepping out would be the most effective action to stimulate the economy.
Look for MORE government intervention, not less. And I think that is true even if/when the Republicans obtain a majority. The US is probably on its way to the ash heap of history, but if it isn't, it hasn't reached "bottom" yet, and reaching bottom will have to happen before it admits it has a fundamental problem of way too much government.
Exactly right. I agree with your take on the subject. This is just the government creating the problem, then setting itself up to be the solution to the same problem.
At some point, it will collapse. It's inevitable. I'm switching to parasite mode, aiming to hasten the collapse.
..... Scott Moore: "I must confess that when I was a kid, during the Reagan years, I was among those Americans that condemned Russia's communist government. Back then, of someone had told me that Russians would become free and America would become communist, I would have questioned their sanity. Today, I'm dumbfounded as I watch it all unfold. Stanislav isn't the first to make this point. I have heard people here in America, former Soviet citizens, warn that we're heading in the same direction as the Bolsheviks. There are plenty of Americans who don't worship at the alter of the "Obamessiah" and hopefully we'll be able to put this brakes on this downward spiral in our future elections (provided we still have elections). May God help us all. I'll close with a quote from an American socialist. "The American people will never knowingly adopt socialism. But, under the name of 'liberalism,' they will adopt every fragment of the socialist program, until one day America will be a socialist nation, without knowing how it happened," - Norman Thomas, U.S. Socialist Party presidential candidate 1940, 1944 and 1948.” Wayne VanDerwood: “I read today the article about the United States loosing it's freedoms. This article angers me a great deal. Especially coming from Pravda.Ru. I am particularly angry that there is not a single untruth in the entire article. The very idea of printing the truth. What has happened to the world when a Russian news paper lectures Americans on liberty and is completely correct.”
You're right. Without knowing the toll Obamacare, cap and tax and increased federal or corporate taxes will take on them, businesses are just hunkering down.
With an economy that is 70% consumer based, it's hard to envision a rapid recovery with so many people out of work and those who still jobs doing a lot of belt tightening.
Businesses with a global presence seem to be doing okay - so far.
From a Pravda article America's decline into Marxism began long before Obama-nation containing the emails and comments on the previous Pravda article American capitalism gone with a whimper :
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