Posted on 10/15/2009 2:09:35 PM PDT by BigSkyFreeper
El Niño in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is expected to be a dominant climate factor that will influence the December through February winter weather in the United States, according to the 2009 Winter Outlook released today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Such seasonal outlooks are part of NOAA’s suite of climate services.
“We expect El Niño to strengthen and persist through the winter months, providing clues as to what the weather will be like during the period,” says Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service. “Warmer ocean water in the equatorial Pacific shifts the patterns of tropical rainfall that in turn change the strength and position of the jetstream and storms over the Pacific Ocean and the U.S.”
“Other climate factors are also likely to play a role in the winter weather at times across the country,” added Halpert. “Some of these factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance. The NAO adds uncertainty to the forecast in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic portions of the country.”
Highlights of the U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February) include:
This seasonal outlook does not predict where and when snowstorms may hit or total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than several days in advance.
NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources. Visit http://www.noaa.gov.
Didn’t we just have an El Nino two years ago? Whatever happened to the 11 year cycle? Or are they just making crap up?
How well did last fall’s predictions compare with the actual winter weather?
I say we find this “El Niño” kid and kick the crap out of him. Who the hell does he think he is screwing with our weather?
You’re thinking of the sunspot cycle, which is an eleven year cycle which hasn’t quite hit bottom yet but it’s on it’s way down as fewer spots are being observed at the moment.
el Nino vs. no Sun Spots vs. Global Warming. Who’s going to win?
I think they just make stuff up. The Wiki says El Ninos happen every 2 to 7 years and last for 9 months to 2 years. Which to me would seem like there isn’t a cycle.
“California: A slight tilt in the odds toward wetter-than-average conditions over the entire state.”
Pour it on!
It was dead on here, as it was predicted to be much colder than usual which was the case.
The hurricane season was a big bust. So now, we are supposed to believe more forecasts?
I’ll stick with the Farmer’s Almanac.
It has the midwest and west frigid, and average temps for the south. East is a mix.
El Gore should plan events in some of he warmer areas. His scam is getting chilly receptions.
Warmer than average temps my hinder!
How about those furry caterpillars? ARe they more fuzzy this year?
Saw one on Monday. When it was stretched out, there was no orange to be seen. When it curled up, there were thin orange bands, but the dark bristles were very thick.
ping
Just checking with spaceweather.com and the sun is still spotless and the solar minimum appears to be deepening and from yesterdays review may be heading for historic lows and some solar scientist were speculating if sunspots are gone for good, a conclusion that is not warranted. As you know in Montana, we had a lot of snow last spring and in early October we had a lot of record low temperatures but toward the end of the week we may see temperatures recovering into the 70 Degree range. What a difference a few days make. We are seeing a struggle between the el-nino and lack of sunspot so which will predominate who knows. One thing for sure is the el-nino will be gone for our next winter and if the sunspots don’t recover look out. Interesting aint it??
No sunspots and a cool, wet summer in Ohio lead me to think it will be no sunspots and cold, wet winter in Ohio.
That’s not very sophisticated, but it’s what I’m thinking.
Spaceweather admitted not too long ago that sunspots have a direct link to global temperature.
Of course, they caught a flak storm from the enviro cultists over that, and have made a point of posting the words ‘anthropogenic’ global warming repeatedly since.
A lack of sunspots equals lower temps.
(The Maunder Minimum was marked by a lower temp gradient.. And the Maunder minimum was viewed with tools far less capable than what we have now.)
Intuitively that map prediction makes more sense to me.
We had a very cool summer here in Indiana, almost no 90 degree days, lots of rainfalls, no midsummer drought, and fall temps are very cool also.
This week is Novemberish, with highs around 45, damp and windy.
The trend says cold temps are arriving early.
anybody know what the Accuweather guy (Joe Bastardi) is predicting?
My recommendation is to buy a warm winter coat for everyone in your family and maybe an extra blanket or two.
We’ve moved to our retirement house this year.
Smaller ranch, extremely well built, all brick, nat gas heat.
Former place was big, drafty, and propane heat.
I anticipate fuel prices will trend upward dramatically under Cap N Tax / Carbon BS so I wanted to do what I could to not be priced out of my house by utility costs in my old age.
Exactly. Why should I believe anything a government scientist predicts? Look at the number of named Atlantic storms this year.
Only two named Hurricanes in the Atlantic so far. The NOAA idiots claim it is due to El Nino, but they acknowledge that Atlantic temps are lower then during the active Hurricane seasons a few years ago.
Right now more then 50 % of the Global Southern Oceans are below normal in temps. Not good. The main problem for the US, especially the upper sections, is the below normal temps of the Northern Pacific. That will be the dominant factor this winter. Right now El Nino has a colder then normal water area located right in the middle of it. And if you notice there has been cold water around Hawaii all summer. No Pineapple Express.
It was designed as a 'put up or shut up' of an "astrological weather forecaster".
The astrological forecasts were a bit more accurate than the NOAA long range forecasts; and neither was statistically better than John W. Campbell's tossing of darts at a labled dart board "control".
IIRC, the Farmer's Almanac was considerably more accurate than any of the other three.
Is that more fuzzy than usual?
Hurricanes thrive on warmer sea waters. The Gulf Coast water temperatures during Katrina for example were 85-90 degrees.
It is amazing how water feels at different temperatures compared to the atmosphere (air). Just a few degrees makes a big difference. That is heat content or heat capacity for you. Water over 84 is loaded with thermal energy.
We could be in for some very interesting weather. Brrr
Mesurement of the magnetic fields associated with the few sunspots that have appeared caused speculation that we might be entering an era similar to the Maunder Minimum. After the el-nino subsides we could have some very interestng weather if the solar minimum persists.
Yes, I think so. I have seen them with just some brown/black at the ends and a thick stripe of orange in the center or with a thin stripe of orange in the center, when they are stretched out. This one was all brown.
But one caterpillar isn’t conclusive.
The other day they were rather hopeful that a sunspot would form, they had it listed as “A sunspot is struggling to form!” and it never even made it.
*chuckle*
If it persists, can anyone say “mini ice age”?
How’s that warmer then noral working out for ya in the central northern plains?
Maunder Minimum 1645 to 1715 The sunspot activity and magnetic activity around the few spots that form are suggestive of 1645.
Had 20 minutes of summer and now we're into fall-like weather after the last 2 weeks of having winter. :)
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