25% Of US Jobs Are Offshoreable

Vox ^

[blam]

On the measurability of offshorability

Alan S. Blinder
Friday, October 9, 2009

Fear of offshoring may force its way back onto policy agendas soon. This column uses a survey of individual workers to measure the offshorability of particular jobs and says that about 25% of US jobs are offshorable. Surprisingly, routine tasks are not more offshorable but those held by more educated workers are.

Although overshadowed by the financial crisis and the world recession right now, the debate over offshoring – that is, outsourcing work to foreign (often poorer) countries – seems poised to stage a comeback as a public policy concern in the not-too-distant future. Indeed, with so much protectionist talk and some protectionist action in the air, fear of offshoring may force its way back onto the policy agendas of the US and other rich countries sooner than we think.

It seems axiomatic that both the economically appropriate and the politically feasible policy responses to offshoring should differ depending on whether the share of the workforce holding offshorable jobs is, say, 2%, 25%, or 75%. In the 2% case, we should probably ignore offshoring as a detail of little consequence. In the 75% case, we should perhaps be seeking radical solutions to the manifold problems caused by massive job dislocations. But if a number nearer to 25% is more plausible, as argued here, the situation probably calls for certain marginal (and some not so marginal) policy adjustments – but certainly not panic. Thus it seems important to obtain a rough empirical handle on this number, slippery though the concept of offshorability may be.1

[snip]

[freedumb2003]

So, that leads to the question: Should Americans be examining their skills and making sure they are not “offshorable?” Or should business dumb down the requirements for skills so the jobs stay local?

[familyop]

Quasi-academic-business-government should continue shooting herself in the foot, so that we can replace it sooner. Making inferior products (corporate bosses), outlawing domestic competition (corporate wives and daughters) and using foreign communist slave labor in collusion with building foreign enemy military forces is anti-American and anti-capitalistic.

Leadership at all levels of business and government are stale—generations removed from the men who started the businesses—and more than a little stupid for lack of exercise. Otherwise, they wouldn’t be sponsoring the popular socialist media (which brings them “bailouts” and the like).

[familyop]

Leadership...is stale, even.

[blam]

It seems the only high income job for a middle-class White male is to get an advanced degree or start a small business.

There is severe discrimination against hiring White males...the 30+ years war against them continues.

My son (a 41 year old White male) is suceeding with a PhD in physics...it took me a while to understand why he was so actively sought after by the large defense contractors. It's because he's a highly educated American who can qualify for a 'Top Secret' clearance and work in secret military programs...which he does.

[JudgemAll]

Well, considering the illegals and latinos have their own unharassed economic spanish speaking economy, who needs offshorables when we got friendly illegals... (Sarc off)

[snarkpup]

A while back there were a couple of years when it was considered cool to have a job where you could telecommute--until employers realized their employees could telecommute all the way from Bangalore.

[Graybeard58]

Well, thank goodness your job and mine are not offshorable.

[familyop]

“You bet, Chief. You’ll be in history, all right-but this is necessary, I’m afraid.” —Tsutsugimushi-Duncan, character in “The Marching Morons,” by C. M. Kornbluth

[WalterSobchak2012]

Or should business dumb down the requirements for skills so the jobs stay local? It isn't a lack of skills that drives outsourcing, it is the preference of Americans not to shit in a hole in the ground next to their tin shack. I was one of the fortunate folks who got to go to India to train "our overseas team members" - most of them were useless and most of them quit inside of six months because we even tried to go cheap in India.

[WalterSobchak2012]

Or should business dumb down the requirements for skills so the jobs stay local? It isn't a lack of skills that drives outsourcing, it is the preference of Americans not to shit in a hole in the ground next to their tin shack. I was one of the fortunate folks who got to go to India to train "our overseas team members" - most of them were useless and most of them quit inside of six months because we even tried to go cheap in India.

[The Toll]

What??? Still 25% left?

What in the world are we waiting for!! - C.E.O.

[Non-Sequitur]

So, that leads to the question: Should Americans be examining their skills and making sure they are not “offshorable?”

When it comes to being 'offshoreable' the only skill that can prevent it is the ability to work at India or China salary levels. Nothing else matters.

[blam]

At 10% Unemployment America Still Doesn't Have Enough Workers

[freedumb2003]

I 100% guarantee that my 30-year knowledge of systems and business processes and how they work together and how to turn ideas into code is not offshorable.

Coding is offshorable. Understanding the problem in terms understandable to all is not.

[WalterSobchak2012]

In the false economy you don’t have thirty years experience, your a geezer stuck in the past to inflexible and stupid to embrace CHANGE.

The long-term results and performance don’t matter, it is the money that can be saved next quarter by firing your six figure ass that becomes some thirty-something pricks bonus.

[Cyber Liberty]

You have to be careful. If you succeed at making yourself irreplaceable, you can become unpromotable.

[Non-Sequitur]

I 100% guarantee that my 30-year knowledge of systems and business processes and how they work together and how to turn ideas into code is not offshorable.

You may find that you are wrong in that. It depends on your company.

[freedumb2003]

>>You have to be careful. If you succeed at making yourself irreplaceable, you can become unpromotable.<<

LOL — there is great wisdom in your words, my friend.

But I keep my eye on the horizon to make sure I bring people to do what I do now so I can do more to do more (as it were).

The biggest mistake many make is to stand pat — that is a losing strategy. Keep your toolkit sharp, look at the environment, see what is needed and make sure you can supply it.

[freedumb2003]

>>You may find that you are wrong in that. It depends on your company.<<

Trust me, I have many companies that are vying for me even as we speak.

The joy of being a consultant with a great track record — you have lots and LOTS of people that are always saying “come on, move here and we’ll take car of you!”

I always keep in mind that the “lowest” person (clerk, starting analyst, etc.) may be the senior person I may meet later. I treat everyone like they are the CEO/CFO/CIO and their input, no matter how naive, is important (mentoring opportunities abound). Now, I do that because I think it is how people should be treated, but it leaves a pretty good reputation behind as well. Besides, I make people laugh (in the good way:) )

We live in complex times — anyone with their head not on a swivel is courting trouble.

[freedumb2003]

>>
In the false economy you don’t have thirty years experience, your a geezer stuck in the past to inflexible and stupid to embrace CHANGE.<<

You have never been more wrong in your life.

>>The long-term results and performance don’t matter, it is the money that can be saved next quarter by firing your six figure ass that becomes some thirty-something pricks bonus.<<

They know it would take 3 or 4 people to replace me. My knowledge is not in stuff, it is in how stuff works — and how people work.

[WalterSobchak2012]

well good luck to you then, I watched dozens of genuinely indispensable employees get escorted out over the last decade, fired by dead weight managers who couldn't even describe their roles - let alone evaluate their performance in them. But fire half a dozen of them and you just saved a million dollars a year.

I toast your good fortune if you are indeed working for a business that isn't proactively dismantling itself.

[freedumb2003]

>>I toast your good fortune if you are indeed working for a business that isn’t proactively dismantling itself.<<

You think I depend on my EMPLOYER for security? Not even close.

I have contacts across the country in at least a dozen businesses, any one of which would be happy to have me (I recently checked when things got a little sideways).

Anyone who depends on where they are now doesn’t understand the game.

And if they let me go in the next 2 years it will cost them 10 million dollars in contracts (I am named as a “critical contract resource”) — I feel pretty good about that.

But as I have said above, you have to keep your tools sharp, your clients impressed, your contacts fresh and your options open.

If you are good at what you do and have a reputation in your industry (and continue to grow and learn) you will do well. If you code all day, check the worn rug tread to the Exit Door.

And I suppose you are immune to what you hope will happen to me? Why aren’t you one of them “indispensable employees... fired by dead weight managers?”

Your magic ring of power?

[WalterSobchak2012]

The only reason I wasn't fired along with the rest was I had an employment contract with a pre-negotiated severance agreement. When the private equity trolls moved in I quit almost immediately. I was asked to return a short time later and was given the contract that would make it very expensive to fire me.

The men who were fired wholesale were the men who built the company and were compensated accordingly. When private equity took over they immediately set about getting rid of the logic team, firmware team and RTOS team in favor of using chinese chipmakers reference designs and linux.

This effort was a disaster and on my last day before retiring the company was taking in more revenue from leasing out surplus office space than from hardware sales.

At the moment what is left of the company is trying to get into the patent troll business.

[freedumb2003]

Well, believe it or not, large consultancies have learned from being burned from body shops and are actively seeking people with solid experience.

As I said, I am an instrumental part of at least $10 million in contracts and my area has nearly a 1/2 billion in contracts.

Deliver value, high quality, measurable day-to-day results and maybe, just maybe, people pay you money.

It ain’t your dad’s consulting environment. A 600-page deliverable doesn’t mean squat. It is the AP clerk that doesn’t have to spend her day inputting into 2 or 3 systems (and then reconciling differences) and can now look for the lowest overall cost for 10,000 pencils (OK, not a great example but I think you get the point) where the rubber meets the road.

Me? I spend time with that clerk, and then I spend time with the folk on the 2 or 3 systems and then figger out how to bridge them all. But, in my mind, the clerk is where we get value.

And I have done just that. And you would be amazed at how much the support of 300 or so AP clerks can increase the value of your personal stock. Add to that a few thousand Purchasing analysts and then setting the stage for strategic sourcing for a few hundred thousand people who need stuff and, heck, the next thing you know people like to have you around.

And doing it with a smile and a laugh is the bonus that makes it work.