Iran Buys Time for Nuclear Program at Little Cost

The Woodward Report ^ | October 2, 2009 | Jamsheed K. Choksy

[thisisthetime]

Despite the encouraging outcome of yesterday's talks in Geneva, the nuclear standoff with Iran is far from over. It will not end for the U.S. until there is full, ongoing compliance with all protocols of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) inspection regime. And so long as Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is Iran's president, it very likely will not end for Iran until breakout capability has been achieved.

It should not be surprising that yesterday in Geneva, Ahmadinejad's recalcitrant regime appeared to make major concessions to the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council and Germany (P5+1). In order to ensure his own political effectiveness and legacy, Ahmadinejad may extend such compromises not only on atomic inspection, but also on counterterrorism and even Middle East peace, all in exchange for Iran's inclusion within the global economic community.

Given his past words and deeds, however, the question remains whether those offers represent short-term ploys or legitimate and constructive long-term commitments. For now, though, the Iranians' smooth talk and conciliatory positions in Geneva bought the domestically autocratic and internationally adversarial Iranian government much-needed time, at little cost.

Granting inspections to the recently revealed uranium enrichment plant outside Qom is not groundbreaking. The Iranian government knew full well that international inspections would occur once it notified the IAEA two weeks ago about the facility. Iran's leaders disclosed the site not simply because Western intelligence agencies knew of its existence. Iranian authorities are not naïve. They would have assumed such construction would show up on Western satellite images within a few months of breaking ground. Iran's administration notified the IAEA in order to generate a framework of trust among nations other than the U.S. and its allies prior to initiating negotiations.

[William of Barsoom]

“Encoraging outcome?” — he means the meeting and agreement to hold another meeting in a couple of weeks or so? THAT “ecouraging outcome?”

Oh... Goody...