Whatever happens, you can bet Obama will put us on the wrong side of it.
Frowning takes 68 muscles.
Smiling takes 6.
Pulling this trigger takes 2.
I'm lazy.
Posted on 09/22/2009 6:21:16 AM PDT by Kaslin
In August, the Georgian navy seized a Turkish tanker carrying fuel to Abkhazia, Georgia's former province whose declaration of independence a year ago is recognized by Russia but not the West.
The Turkish captain was sentenced to 24 years. When Ankara protested, he was released. Abkhazia has now threatened to sink any Georgian ship interfering in its "territorial waters," but it has no navy.
Russia, however, has a Black Sea Fleet and a treaty of friendship with Abkhazia, and has notified Tbilisi that the Russian coast guard will assure, peacefully, the sea commerce of Abkhazia.
Not backing down, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili -- who launched and lost a war for South Ossetia in 48 hours in August 2008 -- has declared the blockade of Abkhazia, which he claims as Georgian national territory, will remain in force. And he has just appointed as defense minister a 29-year-old ex-penitentiary boss with a questionable record on human rights who wants to tighten ties to NATO.
We have here the makings of a naval clash that Georgia, given Russian air, naval and land forces in the eastern Black Sea, will lose.
What is Saakashvili up to? He seems intent on provoking a new crisis to force NATO to stand with him and bring the United States in on his side -- against Russia. Ultimate goal: Return the issue of his lost provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia back onto the world's front burner.
While such a crisis may be in the interests of Saakashvili and his Russophobic U.S neoconservative retainers, it is the furthest thing from U.S. national interests. President Obama should have Joe Biden, Saakashvili's pal, phone him up and instruct him thus:
"Mikheil, if you interfere with the sea commerce of Abkhazia, and provoke Russia into a Black Sea war, you fight it yourself. The Sixth Fleet is not going to steam into the Black Sea and pull your chestnuts out of the fire, old buddy. It will be your war, not ours."
Nor is the Abkhazian crisis the only one brewing in the Black Sea.
Last month, Russian naval troops blocked Ukrainian bailiffs from seizing navigational equipment from a lighthouse outside Sevastopol, the Crimean base of Russia's Black Sea Fleet for two centuries.
The Sevastopol lease, however, runs out in 2017. And Kiev has informed Moscow there will be no renewal. Russia's fleet will have to vacate Sevastopol and the Crimea, which belonged to Russia before Nikita Khrushchev ceded the entire peninsula to Ukraine in 1954 in a "brotherly gesture" while Ukraine was still part of the Soviet Union.
Russia also bears a deep animus toward Ukrainian President Victor Yushchenko, for trying to bring his country into NATO. Yushchenko, whose approval rating is in single digits, has been seen, ever since the U.S.-backed Orange Revolution of 2004 that brought him to power, as America's man in Kiev.
Moreover, as religious, cultural, ethnic and historic ties between Kiev and Moscow go back centuries, Russians remain unreconciled to the loss of what they regard as the cradle of their country.
What is America's vital interest in all these quarrels? Zero.
The idea, mentioned in hawkish quarters, of having the Sixth Fleet take over the vacated naval base at Sevastopol would be as rash and provocative an act as having Chinese warships move into Guantanamo, were Havana to expel the United States.
But that is unlikely to happen. For Obama appears to be rolling back the George W. Bush policy of expanding NATO into former republics of the Soviet Union.
Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are already members, and Bush and John McCain were anxious to bring in Ukraine and Georgia. But, as Bush's inaction during the Russia-Georgia war revealed, America is not going to fight Russia over who controls Abkhazia, North or South Ossetia, Dagestan, Ingushetia, Chechnya or Georgia. All are beyond any vital interest or legitimate sphere of influence of the United States.
With his cancellation of the U.S. missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic -- a shield designed to defend against a nonexistent Iranian ICBM -- Obama sent two message to Moscow.
First, Obama believes entente with Russia is a surer guarantee of the peace and security of Eastern Europe than any U.S. weapons system. Second, Obama puts Washington-Moscow ties before any U.S. military ties to NATO allies in Eastern Europe.
Which means NATO is approaching an existential crisis.
Almost all NATO troops, except U.S., are gone from Iraq, and the alliance's minimal commitment to Afghanistan is ending with no victory in sight. NATO's expansion eastward has come to a halt. Ukraine and Georgia are not coming in. And the United States is not going to place troops, warships or missiles any closer than they are now to Russia's frontiers.
"NATO must go out of area, or go out of business," said Sen. Richard Lugar at the Cold War's end. NATO went out of area, and is coming back with its tail between its legs. The alternative arises.
Ugh. Did the russkies give Pat Buchanan some kneepads as well? Does a sovereign nation like Georgia not have the right to defend its territory from hostile threats, no matter how great they may be?
Obama to the country of Georgia: We surrendered. You should too.
Good luck and good bye.
He’s undone Ronald Reagan and freedom in Eastern Europe in mere months.
Praise Obama!
South Ossetians fired their artillery from the cover of a town.
The Georgians dared to fire back - instant casus belli. Lucky for South Ossetia that all those Russian Tanks were a short drive away.
Who thinks obama will get in a conflict with russia to defend these countries? Raise your hands! Higher as I can not see any...
FWIW, I recently saw a show on one of the History Channels that mentioned John Paul Johns was once a Vice Admiral in the Russian Navy. He helped them win a major battle in the Black Sea.
typo fix “John Paul Jones”
What am I talking about? Shortly after zero appeased Russia by betraying our ally Poland, Russia starts flexing her muscles. Apparently Buchanan has forgotten - or never understood - the inevitable corollary to Reagan's “Peace through Strength” doctrine. That is, of course, “War through Weakness,” and appeasement is weakness.
PS Note the way Buchanan worked in those evil neo-cons ie Jooooos. Of course it's the Jooooos fault, eh, Pat? Isn't it always in your alternate reality?
Interesting that Obama’s world view seems congruent with Buchanan’s.
Why I am not sure but it seems that the people have historically had more in common with Russia than with Georgia and the reality and at the end of the day is Georgia lacks the power to enforce it’s will on them and IMO should reconsider even trying.
I don’t see the people of Ossetia and Abkhazia demanding that the Russians leave.
There could be alternatives to creating a never ending national dispute like what we see in Israel/Palestine. I am not sure it could be done but Georgia should consider a negotiated settlement with Russia wherein Georgia renounces its claim to the territory in exchange for cash and trade concessions or whatever else is important to them.
If Russia wants it they should have to pay much like we did for Alaska and in doing so Georgia could save some face.
I know this is a bit simplistic but the alternative is bad for everyone. It a done deal either way, Georgia is never going to get these territories back anyway so there is not much point in engaging in a long term confrontation with Russia that will only hurt Georgia.
A lot of parallels here to Danzig and Germany in 1939.
Good old Pat. He never met a fascist Dictator he wouldn’t kowtow to.
Whatever happens, you can bet Obama will put us on the wrong side of it.
Barrack Obama has been seen since his 2009 Polish missile shield capitulation as Russia's man in Washington.
I bet Pat would consider a war against Israel an American “vital interest.”
I think a large part of the lack of anti-Russian sentiment in South Ossetia and Abkhazia is the way that ethnic Russians were emigrated by the soviets en masse into these regions during the USSR era and ended up being the largest single ethnic group in the two nations, exactly like the Tibet/China situation.
Crawl back under your rock, Pat.
I am sure you are right. Probably a better analogy would be Northern Ireland rather than Israel/Palestine. But at this point that is the lay of the land, most were born and raised there and they are not leaving.
The bottom line is that borders are defined by ones ability to defend them and by those who would be governed, in this case Georgia looses on both fronts. It’s a raw deal for Georgia but that’s not going to change situation on the ground. The quicker they accept the reality and try to make some good out of it the better.
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