This is the housing price index from the fhfa.gov housing cost site. How about YOU tell the truth.
Posted on 09/18/2009 3:33:06 AM PDT by Scanian
THE next wave of the credit crisis is about to hit -- a collapse in com mercial real estate and potential explosion of bank failures. With its resources tapped out by the first wave, what should Washington do?
Over the last year, the Federal Reserve doubled the size of its balance sheet, and took unprecedented action in monetizing government debt and extending credit to financial institutions. Now it must head off inflation and extricate itself from $5 trillion-plus in credit exposure from various bailouts. The Treasury, meanwhile, is issuing debt at the fastest pace in peacetime history.
Now comes the next crisis. The same factors that caused the residential bubble -- easy credit, lax lending standards and booming mortgage-backed-securities underwriting -- also drove commercial real-estate overvaluation. But the commercial market lags the residential one by about a year, so this bubble is still popping.
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
It takes jobs to fill commercial real estate. How has that been going for us lately?
Whats another 5 tril? Just buy more presses.
The only commercial buildings that seem to be OK are privately owned tenant build-outs mostly doctors. Of course GOVERNMENT projects are being built all over the place.
I've seen it coming since the end of 2007. You can build a great building and if no-one rents it, bingo!
Blah, blah, blah, blah. I am sick and tired of every predicted next crisis. It is all a lie. This market does absolutely nothing but go up. Go ahead, tell me another lie.
Oh, look at the ETF fund with symbol SRS. It goes nowhere but DOWN. If commerical real estate were ACTUALLY in trouble, the ETF funds like SRS would be going up. The banks are in trouble? LOL. What a lie, the ETF fund FAZ goes nowhere but DOWN. Housing? Hee, hee, hee. Stocks like TOL and KBH go nowhere but UP. Nothing in the financial world is tied to the truth. Nothing is tied to the actual truth in this economy. Not one thing.
This is the housing price index from the fhfa.gov housing cost site. How about YOU tell the truth.
I know what is happening. You are not understanding the nature of my posts, apparently. The markets are being driven in the exact opposite direction of what is actually happening. SARCASM.
The CEO of Kroger the other day in an interview I believe was very insightful said she did not believe employment would be “coming back” anytime soon and would not till some kind of industry grows up to absorb those out of work. Her theory is firms have no intention of adding to payrolls even if business picks up because most of the workforce has been replaced by technological improvements allowing fewer individuals to do more. She added there is little new manufacturing, which is labor intensive, on the horizon domestically either.
So, where does that leave the banks, mostly the regional banks that are heavily burdened by this coming nightmare? My guess is they will be made insolvent and be made wards of the huge banking enterprises. The empty office structures will wither as monuments to stupidity on a grand scale while retail space will lag till employment picks up or the internet is made less attractive say by forcing sales taxes upon on line purchases. Again IMO.
Vince
Why do they keep referring to it as “the next” collapse? Commercial real estate collapsed last December and continued falling through successive floors like the World Trade Center all last spring.
That's how I see it- as I've mentioned previously, if you go south of where we live, there's a billion-dollar condo conversion of the shipyard where my Mom & Dad met.
Years have passed as they moved dirt around, built one sales office, then another. Breathless ads proclaiming "Phase one Gone! Don't miss Phase 2!"
And so on- but they never built the condos. Still moving dirt around, being sued for nonperformance.
Go north of here, see what I call "the towers of silence."
They built the shell, the 2 months ago padlocked the place. Now, they've taken down the signs.
Harry Dent “The Great Depression Ahead”
Watch for this bubble to burst in 2010
Predicts commodities bubble to burst, too, for all you gold buyers
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nF18_-iZTe0
The Keynesians believed you could pay people to dig ditches and fill them up again to stimulate the economy.
Well, people now a days don’t like ditch digging jobs. But, they do like paperwork. So you can have the government create all sorts of filling requirements, complex legal and tax codes, and have people fill them out. Another group can read them. Yet a third group can find errors in the forms and prosecute the first group. A forth group can defend the first group. There will need to be a sixth group for judges to get between the first group and the...um...let me...wait, ah yes, the forth group. Yet a seventh group will needed to be an appeals panel in case the first group is found guilty by the sixth group. We’ll probably need an eight group to recruit people for the first group because of the prosecution of the fifth group.
See, full employment!
“Whats another 5 tril? Just buy more presses.”
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Intaglio presses cost money! When the hyperinflation kicks in they will have to run the old presses around the clock to print enough money to buy new presses 80)
Next stop The United States of Zimbabwe.
hee hee hee... great post.
That curve is the derivative (change or delta) in the price change. To get the cumulative price change you need to take the area under the curve. The units of the y-axis is relative change per quarter. The total area under the curve is distinctly positive. (Area below the x-axis is negative.)
Price change per decade (longer averaging period) is clearly positive.
I think this article is written in part by one David Lowry and ended up under Rich Lowry’s name and picture. I was suspicious when reading it and the note at the end gives it away . . .
So what? Obviously you wouldn't have houses selling for negative amounts.
Price change per decade (longer averaging period) is clearly positive.
Again, so what? If you look in centuries the trend is positive too, but the recent trend is downward, and probably won't go upward again until the middle of next year.
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That was sarcasm, right? I mean, you could really believe that, could you?
You are correct. Tons of mystery money (actually bailout billions) manipulating a few large stocks are keeping the Dow artifically inflated. GE was the star yesterday. The stock market does not reflect reality.
No, no. Since it's relative change, the price will be positive unless it goes under -100%. The data is discrete time samples. To see the actual effect, you need to have the numbers. Just take a $1.00 dollar base. Multiply it by the relative price change in each quarter and you get the price. If the graph goes, say, {10 10 5 0 -10 -10} percent, the resulting price will be : 1.00 x (1.1) x (1.1) x (1.05) x (1.0) x (.9) x (.9) = 1.029105. The price change would have to negative and more than 100% for the price to go to less than zero.
Again, so what? If you look in centuries the trend is positive too, but the recent trend is downward, and probably won't go upward again until the middle of next year.
So what? Warren Buffet said if you're not willing to own a stock for ten years you shouldn't own it for ten minutes. A few down quarters in real estate or stocks doesn't mean the end of the world except for people with insufficent liquidity. If you are in the construction business you can expect tough times, but again, if you are in a cyclical business you need to expect that.
I should add a note: The U.S. Government now has insufficient liquidity to deal with a crisis and many, far too many, Americans are in the same boat.
During good times, instead of saving for a rainy day, some people and the government spent like drunk sailors. As I’ve said before in the new fable of the grasshopper and the ant, the ants get the government to take from the grasshoppers to give to the ants.
I think you may have it backwards; now the grasshoppers use the government to take from the industrious ants...
You are wrong. the median price of houses selling in the US has DROPPED look here the actual median selling price has decreased recently.
Warren Buffet said if you're not willing to own a stock for ten years you shouldn't own it for ten minutes.
Like he's some sort of font of absolute knowledge?
A few down quarters in real estate or stocks doesn't mean the end of the world except for people with insufficent liquidity
Well that's true, but unfortunately the market bubble was driven by people who should never have bought in the first place an now are whining that they are going to lose "their" homes. And the rest of us are going to have to pay for THEIR mistakes - socialism at its finest inspired by the "community redevelopment act" as enhanced by slick Willie.
Prices dropping is different than a negative price (they pay you to take it).
John Maynard Keynes said, “In the long run, we’re all dead.”, so I agree, you can’t take too long a view. OTOH, you should never, ever, buy a home you won’t want to live in for the next ten years and which you cannot reasonably expect to pay for with money you have or are now earning.
They were able to sell the property and buildings of the family hardware store last month, but for half of what it had been appraised for several years ago. I don’t think people realize that things are really bad for businesses.
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