At least 38 states overestimated tax revenues

The Washington Times ^ | Monday, July 6, 2009

[rvoitier]

At least 38 states overestimated tax revenues And states weren't just barely missing their revenue projections; they whiffed by large margins.

[Domandred]

And of course the solution won’t be to cut spending, it will be to raise taxes more.

[AZLiberty]

TAIWWOAT: This article is worthless without a table (or at least a link to one.)

Why didn’t they give us the information by state?

[Las Vegas Ron]

That’s because they underestimated 0bama

[Rembrandt]

” ..said Wilbur Maki, a professor emeritus in the Department of Applied Economics at the University of Minnesota who served as state economist in the early 1980s..”

This learned opinion is from a distinguished speaker from the state which just sent Al Franken/Stuart Smalley to represent their state as a U.S. Senator! Please put that opinion where the sun never shines.

[Dapper 26]

Underestimating revenues only exists in family households of conservative Americans. Government spending always overestimates tax revenues with increased taxes a foregone conclusion.

[GeronL]

and federal revenues are down about a third

[goodnesswins]

OR Ping....Oregon is mentioned in this article....about what the legislature just did re: taxes, and what the PEOPLE are planning to do about it.

[Jim from C-Town]

“and federal revenues are down about a third”

And Falling....................

[31R1O]

At least it is here in Oregon.

[dragnet2]

States in Deep Trouble Over Plunging Income Tax Revenues

The Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government has issued a State Revenue Flash Report discussing an across the board enormous drop in personal income tax revenues.

Total personal income tax collections in January-April 2009 were 26 percent, or about $28.8 billion below the level of a year ago in states for which we have data. In April 2009 alone (April being the month when many states receive the bulk of their balance due or final payments), personal income tax receipts fell by 36.5 percent, or $18.2 billion.

Personal income tax receipts in the first four months of calendar year 2009 were greater than in 2008 in only three states — Alabama, North Dakota, and Utah. In FY 2008, personal income tax revenue made up over 50 percent of total tax collections in six states — Colorado, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, and Virginia. Personal income tax revenue declined dramatically in all six of these states for the months of January-April of 2009 compared to the same period of 2008. Among all 37 early-reporting states, the largest decline was in Arizona, where collections declined by nearly 55 percent.

In the month of April alone, 37 early reporting states collected about $18.2 billion less in personal income tax revenues compared to the same month of 2008.

This $18.2 billion is close to the $20 billion shortfall that states experienced in overall tax revenue collections in the first quarter of calendar year 2009. This is particularly bad news for the states that rely most heavily on personal income tax.

Given the ominous picture of personal income tax collections, deeper overall revenue shortfalls and further deterioration in states’ fiscal conditions are likely on the way for most states for the April-June quarter of calendar year 2009.

What a Bad April Does to State Budget Processes An April income tax shortfall comes at the worst time of year for two reasons. First, by the time it is recognized in late April or mid-May, it is just 6-10 weeks before the end of the fiscal year for 46 states. For states without large cash balances, this can create a cash flow crunch or even a cash flow crisis. There is not enough time to enact and implement new legislation cutting spending, laying off workers, raising taxes, or otherwise obtaining resources sufficient to offset the lost revenue before the June 30 end of the fiscal year. As a result, a state without sufficient cash on hand to pay bills must resort to stopgap measures to “roll” the problem into the future.

Second, the increased budget problems caused by an April income tax shortfall come late in the fiscal year and late in the budget process — often as states are supposed to wrap up their budget negotiations.

The new bad news for elected officials can unsettle carefully balanced gap-closing plans already tentatively negotiated. Since the budget actions included in these tentative plans presumably were the most attractive options available to them, almost by definition actions to close new budget gaps will be much more difficult.

All of this makes it hard for budget negotiators to reach agreements that will fully close the new budget gaps. It raises the risk that the newly adopted budget will take an optimistic view of the year ahead and may unravel as the year progresses, requiring midyear cuts. And because those solutions that are adopted may be nonrecurring in nature, it raises the risk that states will face larger gaps for 2010-11 when such nonrecurring resources go away.

There are numerous tables in the report worth a look. In fact, the entire 9 page PDF is worth reading in entirety.

States most dependent on Personal Income Taxes

68.5% of Oregon’s Tax Revenue from PIT. Collections off 27.0% 57.2% of Massachusetts’ Tax Revenue from PIT. Collections off 28.5% 55.9% of New York’s Tax Revenue from PIT. Collections off 31.8% 47.5% of California’s’ Tax Revenue from PIT. Collections off 33.8% 52.4% of Connecticut’s Tax Revenue from PIT. Collections off 25.9% 52.7% of Colorado’s Tax Revenue from PIT. Collections off 25.4%

Arizona’s collections were down a whopping 54.9% depending 25.3% on Personal Income Taxes. South Carolina, Michigan, Vermont, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Idaho, and Ohio are also in deep trouble.

20 states depending on personal incomes taxes for > 25% of total taxes were down 20% or more on collections.

[FrogMom]

and federal revenues are down about a third

Is that a fact?? If so, it's bloody HUGE!

[GeronL]

Yes, I think so. Someone will have to do a search or something but yes revenues are way down.... the deficit is way up [partly] because of it. Among other things.

[dragnet2]

In Oregon, where personal income tax collections were preliminarily down 15 percent from projections for 2009, the recently adjourned legislature approved a two-year budget dependent upon $733 million in tax increases to avoid cuts to schools and other state services. Anti-tax activists and business groups are planning a petition drive to put the tax hikes to a vote of the people.

Good for Oregon...

These bloated big government socialist parasites won't stop until they take everything you own.

[FrogMom]

Arizona’s collections were down a whopping 54.9%

Oh great. We also have a Republican governor wanting to raise taxes.

CUT SPENDING!!!

[rvoitier]

How does that saying go? "It's the Liberalism, Stupid!"

[dragnet2]

Government at all levels will do everything they can to not reduce the size of their governments. Be it local, county, state or federal levels...

It's all about gaining more power, and more control over *everything*.

They don't care that the taxes they collect are down because people no longer have the money, and they will do what ever it takes to keep taking...

In this economic environment, just the thought of raising taxes is making people recoil, as few have any money left to hand over to the kings men.

[familyop]

Let’s make that 50 states. Stop buying anything that you don’t need for a few years. Get more self-sufficient. Let’s learn to do some real work again. We’ll be better off after the defaults.

[dragnet2]

Let’s make that 50 states. Stop buying anything that you don’t need for a few years. Get more self-sufficient. Let’s learn to do some real work again. We’ll be better off after the defaults.

It's already happening, and for many, it's no longer a choice. Few have the money for a new home, new car sales are circling the drain, people are keeping what they got, and fixing and repairing it, and making do with what they have, buying used, etc.

I'm to the point, where we are not buying zip, unless we absolutely need it.

[WKUHilltopper]

Here’s an idea...keep raising taxes. Be sure to take even more money from those who produce it. That’s the ticket. That’ll work for sure.

Idiots.

[dragnet2]

And of course the solution won’t be to cut spending, it will be to raise taxes more.

Exactly what they'll attempt to do...

Watch for the dire warnings and threats of impending disaster if you don't hand over more money in the form of taxes.

[Tzimisce]

Well they just need to raise taxes again. :)

[ninonitti]

And series

[AZLiberty]

Thanks. Here's the link to the report. Arizona has the biggest percentage decline of any state in personal income tax collections.

I can see why there's a push in Arizona for a flat tax. With the current "progressive" tax system, as incomes go down, taxes go down even faster. Deflation would hurt government even worse than the populace. With a flat tax, however, collections would only go down as fast as income.

[dragnet2]

Here's the link to the report. Arizona has the biggest percentage decline of any state in personal income tax collections.

Thanks, we were just looking at that.. It's pretty clear, with the loss of jobs, and prices on near everything going up, few have any money left.

This is going to be a hard pill to swallow for government at all levels, when they finnally figure out, the people no longer have the money to fund government lottery style retirement pensions, top shelf medical benefits and high end wages etc...

[dragnet2]

Well they just need to raise taxes again.

Oh yeah, raise the taxes of millions that lost their jobs, homes, pensions, investments etc.

This is going to be fun to watch.

[dragnet2]

and federal revenues are down about a third

No doubt the king is sending his men into the villages to force the peasants to pay.

[MHGinTN]

The sham of carbon taxing is getting exposed far too quickly for the criminal democrats to make it stick. The way they will choose to raise tax revenues on out of work people and failing households is to apply taxation to the things needed for survival, like food and fuel. Fuel will be first, then food and production, storage and transport of food, then tax at register for basics. Commies are at least predictable, and the DNC is a criminal commie enterprise. They have cultivated a dependency class which keeps them in Hastings, and Obamas?

[dragnet2]

The way they will choose to raise tax revenues on out of work people and failing households is to apply taxation to the things needed for survival, like food and fuel. Fuel will be first, then food and production, storage and transport of food, then tax at register for basics.

You bet.

While millions just struggle daily to survive, and hold onto their homes, cars, jobs, if the still have jobs, ya got a millions of government employees behind closed doors, sitting at tables in tax paid government offices, planning their strategy to take more money in the form of taxes, fees, fines, and regulation.

It's really insane how quickly this punitive government monster has evolved and grown.

[dragnet2]

The sham of carbon taxing is getting exposed far too quickly for the criminal democrats to make it stick. The way they will choose to raise tax revenues on out of work people and failing households is to apply taxation to the things needed for survival, like food and fuel

We were just discussing how government at all levels, simply pulls out of a hat, what they say we owe them. Think about the endless government tax schemes...There is no rhyme or reason to them. It's like looking at your phone bill, with endless charges and taxes attached...

A friend brought his phone bill over a few months ago...It was like 4 pages long...And he makes no long distant calls. We went down the list, the the taxes and fees were absolutely incomprehensible. The local city governments are now charging you a tax, simply because you have a phone line going to your home.

I kid you not.

[dragnet2]

bttt

[dragnet2]

bttt

[FrogMom]

I think it can only be series if it’s hugh! ;)