Here’s a bigger version from the chart on Calculated Risk. And here’s CR’s take on the situation.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/07/another-involuntary-landlord-and.html
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/07/another-involuntary-landlord-and.html
Second, the monthly payroll report, like the one issued today, is full of largely coincident data. However, it does have one piece of leading data: the length of the work week. This is generally considered a leading indicator because employers will tend to adjust the number of hours their employees work before hiring or firing them. For example, it would be normal for companies to begin to pay existing workers overtime before they hire additional workers because of the uncertainty related to the initial upturn in a production or service cycle.
However, commentators rarely highlight the length of the work week when discussing the monthly employment report.
What has been happening to the length of the work week? It has hit all-time lows the last two months. Thats right. The only official leading indicator in the employment report has hit all-time lows the last two months. Who has reported that? No one.
http://www.businessinsider.com/richard-bernstein-why-is-weak-employment-a-surprise-2009-7