Swine Flu Garners Pandemic Status [Level 6, and There Is No 7]

ABC News ^ | June 11, 2009 | Gitika Ahuja and Dan Childs

[2ndDivisionVet]

The World Health Organization this morning formally declared that swine flu had reached the level of a full-blown pandemic, moving the viral outbreaks to phase 6 on the pandemic alert scale.

WHO Director-General Dr Margaret Chan met with flu experts at 6 a.m. ET today in Geneva to discuss the spread of the novel virus, and since Wednesday the escalation to the highest level of pandemic alert had been widely anticipated.

The move reflects the continued spread of the virus around the globe, despite quarantines, school closings and other measures designed to keep it in check. Swine flu is the first official influenza pandemic in more than 40 years.

However, public health experts say there's no reason for the public to be more concerned about the virus today than yesterday; indeed, it is unlikely that much will change at all for the general public.

"From a macro view, the main actions defined for WHO phase 5 are the same as those for phase 6," said Dr. Julie Gerberding, former director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. "However, individual countries and communities may have conditioned key tactical and operational steps of their response to the WHO phases, so there could be significant local, regional, or national impact. Technically, we have been in phase 6 for some time."

"When you hear this announcement, and your children are with you, main thing is to reassure kids not really all that much is going to change unless things get more severe," Dr. Irwin Redlener of the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health in New York, told "Good Morning America."

Other infectious disease experts were quick to point out that the pandemic designation refers to the spread of a disease -- not its severity.

[2ndDivisionVet]

So why scare the whole world?

[bayouranger]

They’re trying to convince us that we are all infected, I guess...

[razorboy]

Funding. Everybody loves funding, and making people panic is the best way to get it.

Of course with this and bird flu and SARS eventually people are going to stop listening to WHO, and right about then is when we’ll get a disease that really is dangerous.

[silverleaf]

I suppose the common cold has been at level 6 for a while?

[Blood of Tyrants]

Never let a crisis go to waste.

[Red_Devil 232]

Because WHO and its swine flu got pushed out of the news cycle and they want attention.

[FourtySeven]

So why scare the whole world?

Who knows? Maybe some of them hold stock in Tamiflu? < /sarc >

Seriously, when was the last known case of the so-called "swine flu"? A month ago? Sheesh. Talk about being late to the party!

[SirAllen]

You know, they’re going to end up regretting crying wolf like this. People won’t take the next one that’s truly a pandemic seriously until it’s too late.

[Cowboy Bob]

I've not heard a word about the Swine Flu in weeks. In fact, there has been more stories about Michelle Ubama's fashion then the Swine Flu.

why is it suddenly a Pandemic?

[Deek]

Swine Flu Garners Pandemic Status [Level 6, and There Is No 7]

Good Lord. What if this were actually killing more people than say...the common cold.

[KevinDavis]

Reminds me of a story of a The Boy Who Cried Wolf..

[bayouranger]

I know this may sound a bit tin foil, but maybe that’s their plan.

Just an aluminum thought....

[razorboy]

Yeah, or Penn Jillette’s patter for the juggling broken bottles routine (”this bottle is really nasty, of course I say that every show but this time I mean, of course I say that every show too but THIS TIME”).

[batter]

I'm not dead...I'm getting better...I feel happy! I feel happy!...

[ican'tbelieveit]

There is some indication that Australia, entering their fall/winter season, has seen an exponential increase in swine flu cases in the last few days.

[MrB]

Just wait for it -

we’ll hear pretty soon what freedoms we’ll have to surrender to get through this “crisis”.

[2ndDivisionVet]

No, there are cases everywhere, whether it is truly a “pandemic” is my question.

[colorado tanker]

It's laughable this few cases would be designated a “pandemic.” I suppose they need to scare people to jack up their funding, but they have no credibility left with me.

[mikelike]

Watch for Big Pharma’s rollout of a Government-mandated vaccine.

The freedom you should expect to be surrendering is the freedom of your (and your children’s) physical determination or as the founding fathers would no doubt surmise - the God-given natural right to life itself.

[homegroan]

I agree-co-inky-dink that we are in the middle of “reviewing” the unstoppable Public Health Insurance “Plan”? After all-it’s URGENT per the big O..

Hmmmmmm.....

Me-thinks somethings afoot...

SZQ

[DoughtyOne]

I guess this has spread far and wide, so officially it can be called a pandemic. The Swine Flue has sure been an education to me though. I used to think of Pandemic as a massive killer. I could have reverent respect, perhaps fear of that. Now it means nothing at all.

Pandemic has been reduced to nothingness in a matter of months. And so has the fearmongering WHO, the CDC, and other blathering nabobs of irrelevance.

[21twelve]

There was some kid in my kids’ school who had it two weeks ago - but not serious and seems to be the tail end of it here. I hope that it doesn’t mutate into something worse as it makes it way south and then back north this fall.

However, it has a higher rate of transmission than the noraml flu, which increases the number of hosts, which I imagine also increases the rate of mutation. Mutations which could make it more - or less - deadly.

[Freedom Dignity n Honor]

Because it’s ravaging Australia right now. It’s in many countries with about 30,000 infected. In Australia, it’s winter and the virus is percolating and might change so that by our flu season, it could be a monster...or it could just die out.

[Guenevere]

Remember the infamous Swine Flu of 1976.

...and the resulting paralysis and deaths from the shot itself, due to Guilliam-Barre Syndrome!

I will not trust this present administration to care 2 cents about me or my health!

[dangerdoc]

They are doing exactly what they are supposed to do. The WHO monitors risk and tries to deal with that risk in a pro-active way.

It is the media that takes what the WHO and CDC are doing and try to scare people because it creates ratings and sells papers.

[spectre]

"You know, they're going to end up regretting crying wolf like this. People won't take the next one that's truly a pandemic seriously until it's too late.

That's because the public seemed to be educated to believe the word "pandemic" and mortality were one and the same.

I agree with you.

sw

[dangerdoc]

Pandemic relates to how many people have a natural resistance.

We regularly have pandemics of cold viruses. We will probably have a pandemic of the swine flu. If it happens without picking up more severe pathenogenic genes then it will give a lot of people a bad week and nothing more. If it picks up a couple of bad genes from another flu viruses, then it could kill millions. Nobody knows but responsible public health programs try to prepare for the worst.

BTW, don’t be too cocky, there have always been pandemics and our global economy makes us more susceptable than ever.

[DoughtyOne]

The WHO, the CDC, the Obama administration, the nation’s media and even folks on this forum try to scare the hell out of the U.S. public and I’m the one who is cocky?

Thanks for the warning, as if we hadn’t already been given the full panic mode (shouting fire in a crowded theater) treatment already.

[Rashputin]

dangerdoc -
“They are doing exactly what they are supposed to do. The WHO monitors risk and tries to deal with that risk in a pro-active way.”

I agree completely.

I hope this one is something the folks here are right in laughing off. As one poster said, though, cry wolf enough times and it doesn't work any more. I'd hate to think that another 1918 could come slinking around while being laughed off as just another conspiracy.

[OB1kNOb]

So why scare the whole world?

The same would likely have been said in 1918 if they had the same level of communication and forwarning as we do today. If you look at the Spanish flu mortality graph from the U.K. (source: CDC), you'll see that it cropped up initially when flu season has normally ended in the Northern hemisphere (like this current flu) with a small mortality peak (think Mexico) and was relatively mild, mortality-wise, and lasted through the summer (like the current flu is showing signs of doing all over the world) only to return with a vengeance the next fall and winter during the expected flu season, reaching it's highest of three mortality peaks, with the third peak occuring the following early spring.

If WHO and the CDC did not try to raise the world's awareness of this flu like they currently are, what would everyone be saying if this current flu starts repeating the same mortality peak trend come September-October? Do they err on the side of caution by warning people now, or throw caution to the wind by saying nothing and risk having it act like the Spanish flu this coming fall? I vote for erring on the side of caution. JMO.

[Cementjungle]

Quick! Let’s enact a global health coverage plan. We’ll put Obama in charge since he’s got boatloads of money to spend these days. Free medical care for terrorists will surely make them adore us.

[reformedliberal]

Everyone we know in our area, as well as ourselves, have had it. I would estimate that in about 75% or more, the symptoms were very mild, just a week-ten days of fatigue, headache, low appetite and some low level muscle aches following a slight cold. The other 25% or so reported a more typical influenza, with respiratory symptoms and some GI symptoms. No deaths we are aware of, including a couple of late elderly (80s) who did develop pneumonia, but recovered with appropriate treatment.

My husband works with the public and two days a week has office hours in our home. We are strict about handwashing and just told everyone making appointments to let us know if there was illness in their home or office and we would gladly reschedule them to a week or ten days further out. Everyone was compliant.

I have seen no panic and no real dismissal. People are much wiser than many would assume, IMO, and simply followed hygienic procedures, took off from work/school if they were ill and monitored their own progression. AFAIK, only those with underlying conditions even consulted a physician.

[kalee]

A couple at our church have a 1 year old grandchild who was hospitalized last night in critical condition. This AM it was diagnosed as Swine Flu.
He’s in IL.

His is the only confirmed case in families of friends or aquantances of ours.

[kalee]

OOPS...acquaintances

[Straight Vermonter]

141 people have died out of 27,000 who were sick enough to go to the hospital. That’s ~0.5% mortality rate.

Yawn.

[LucyT]

Three more NYC swine flu deaths raise toll to 15 - Newsday http://ow.ly/dx49

[dangerdoc]

Getting it now is probably a good thing. If it comes back as a virulent bug, those who had the mild form should have some immunity.

[azkathy]

Now acquired immunity is something that I have wondered about.
I am amazed at some posters who actually seem to expect the media to do a good job reporting on Swine flu. I would have thought by now that most people who post on Free Republic would have learned that the media does NOT allways do a good job.
I certainly don’t count on them to provide comprehensive reporting on this topic or others. If you check to see what they report on, they will take the press release and repeat it over and over. They don’t generally go out into the community and dig up any new information from people, like patients or doctors who have actually experienced the illness.

[dangerdoc]

“I am amazed at some posters who actually seem to expect the media to do a good job reporting”

LOL, I had to stop there and chuckle. Hehehe, there I go again.

Never let facts get in the way of a good story. I quit talking to the press about a decade ago, it saved us all a lot of aggravation.

[American in Israel]

It is not like we can do anything about it, run in circles and wear a face mask, the viruses are much smaller than a face mask filters anyway.

I guess we could bankrupt ourselves out to the 4th generation and pay for massive lobster and caviar parties at the WHO.

[ga medic]

“It’s laughable this few cases would be designated a “pandemic.” I suppose they need to scare people to jack up their funding, but they have no credibility left with me.”

They are trying to warn and educate people about this flu, and what they should do if they have flu symptoms. With the information they provide, you can then make a more informed decision about whether you want to travel, etc. Would you prefer that they did not inform you when a contagious disease exists?

A pandemic is defined by the number and location of the virus. It has nothing to do with the severity of the virus, but many people don’t seem to understand what that means. There isn’t any debate at all over whether this is a pandemic or not. Clearly it is. This flu could be dangerous, or not, but no one knows what it is going to do at this point. There have been 30,000 plus cases confirmed by labs so far. They usually only run labs on the most severe cases, so there are many more cases that are not included in the numbers. Next fall they will have a much better idea of where this is heading.

It would be stupid to panic over this flu, at this point in time. It is equally ignorant to claim that it is not a pandemic, and it is all designed to scare people. I recommend that people pay attention to the information and recommendations made by the CDC. They are doing a good job on this flu.

[Scythian]

Merely preparing us for the one that is about to be unleashed is my guess ...

[colorado tanker]

I don't have grounds to suppose CDC isn't following all the right protocols and regulations on this.

But they hurt their credibility with the public by using this terminology. They won't be taken as seriously when a real epidemic comes along.

[ga medic]

I think you are confused by the terminology.

Pandemic: A sudden outbreak that becomes very widespread and affects a whole region, a continent, or the world.

Clearly this flu is at a pandemic stage.

Epidemic: A sudden severe outbreak within a region or a group

This flu also meet the definition of epidemic. I don’t understand what you mean by a real epidemic. This is already a real epidemic, and there isn’t any dispute over the use of that term.

The flu can be very dangerous. around 20-30,000 people die of the flu in the US each year. That doesn’t mean that each person who gets the flu is in mortal danger, only that it is dangerous to society as a whole. With this flu, there is limited immunity in the general population, which means a greater number of people are susceptible to becoming ill. Put that together with the fact that flu viruses mutate quickly and can become very virulent, and there is a real risk to this.

H1N1 has a history of killing as many as 100 million people, so we already know the potential to become virulent is there. There were some young people in 1918 who were completely healthy when they woke up in the morning that died by the next day. Right now, the flu is no where close to being this dangerous. It probably won’t become as dangerous as the 1918 virus, and if it does, we have far more knowledge and ability to treat it.

They are not trying to panic people, only to inform them on the progression of this disease. It is very important to medical professionals and first responders such as myself to have this information, so that we can make the proper determinations about care for those who are ill.

China is a perfect example of taking this precaution way too far (IMO). They are unlikely to prevent this flu from entering their country, yet actually holding people against their will. Comparatively, the US is acting in a very responsible way. We all have a choice of how much risk we want to take with respect to this virus. As long as that doesn’t change, there is nothing wrong with using the appropriate medical terminology to describe this flu.

[OldNavyVet]

"WHO Director-General Dr Margaret Chan met with flu experts at 6 a.m. ET today in Geneva to discuss the spread of the novel virus"

The word "novel" means new; meaning that a new virus species has evolved.

The Financial times ... at http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f0fba872-5685-11de-9a1c-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1 ... puts it this way ...

"By the agency’s own criteria, the conditions to trigger phase 6 had been in place for a number of days: the existence of a new flu virus that was spreading widely between people in two different parts of the world. But officials have been scrambling to manage reactions and to counter panic or over-reaction by both the public, for whom a “pandemic” implies a highly lethal infection, and governments, many of which had been preparing responses to a more severe form of the virus."

The Financial Times goes on to say ..

"By the time the next northern flu season begins towards the end of this year, H1N1 could have further mutated, potentially increasing its severity."

[berkeleybeej]

My daughter is a nurse at a hospital east of San Francisco Bay Area. The number of H1N1 cases have increased over the past couple of weeks. Because of a significant exposure to the virus, she is now on a course of Tamiflu.

Two deaths recently - pneumonia complications.

It’s not over.

[ga medic]

its barely even started. Hope your daughter stays healthy. Tamiflu should do the trick.

[Lady GOP]

Hospital Inundated with Potential Flu Cases Palomar Medical Center sees rush of patients complaining of flu-like symptoms

By R. STICKNEY

Updated 1:42 PM PDT, Thu, Jun 18, 2009
AP

A health worker checks a woman at a health post in Mexico City, April 2009.

So many people have shown up at Palomar Medical Center complaining of flu-like symptoms, that hospital staff has set up a triage outside the main building.

Details Emerge About Swine Flu Victim
Watch Video

We now know more about a young woman who died from complications related to the swine flu.

An unusually high number of patients have arrived to the hospital complaining of flu-like symptoms.

Hospital administrators decided they didn’t want the potential flu patients to mix with the other patients in the emergency room according to hospital spokesperson Andy Hoang.

In the span of 6 hours Wednesday, the hospital treated 80 people in their ER. Sixty of those patients complained of flu-like symptoms. On a normal day, the hospital’s ER treats approximately 160 people. On Wednesday, they saw more than 200 patients.

The triage should be operating after 2 p.m. Thursday.

San Diego County’s first fatality from the swine flu was treated at the hospital late last week.

Adela Chevalier, 20, died Monday after having symptoms for just a few days, according to doctors at Palomar Medical Center.

Chevalier felt ill last Friday and gradually got worse throughout the weekend, doctors said. On Monday, her mother took her to the ER at Palomar Medical Center in Escondido where she had to be put into a wheelchair because she was too weak to walk.

“She had various symptoms, low grade fever, history of cough, severe muscle pains.”said Dr. Don Herip.

About an hour and a half later, preliminary tests showed that Adela had the H1N1 virus. By mid afternoon she was dead.

Chevalier’s death is the seventh swine-flu death in California; 44 people have died around the United States. Most of those victims were less than 50 years of age.

Find this article at:
http://www.nbcsandiego.com/health/tips_info/Hospital-Inundated-with-Potential-Flu-Cases-.html

[Lady GOP]

Hospital Erects Triage Tents To Handle Rush of Flu Victims
Thursday, June 18, 2009 Email article | Print article | RSS
Hospital Erects Triage Tents To Handle Rush of Flu Victims

Palomar Hospital is inundated with patients complaining of flu-like symptoms following death of Escondido woman.

The fear and concerns surrounding the swine flu related death of an Escondido woman Monday night is affecting emergency operations at Palomar Hospital. So a triage tent was set up outside of the emergency room entrance of the hospital to accomodate people suffering from flu-like symptoms. In a span of six hours Wednesday night...eighty people came into Palomar Hospital’s emergency room...75-percent of them complaining of flu like symptoms. Hospital spokesman, Andy Hahn, says this severely strains the hospital’s medical resources so they’re taking this extraordinary measure. People will be screened away from the general population of the hospital. Hospital officials say the triage tent will remain up for as long as the demand for medical care from flu like symptoms persists.