Posted on 05/25/2009 12:06:42 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The world must be ready for H1N1 swine flu to become more severe and kill more people, World Health Organization chief Dr. Margaret Chan said on Friday.
A genetic analysis of the new virus showed it must have been circulating undetected for some time, in pigs or perhaps in other animals.
The WHO is poised to declare a full pandemic of the virus, which has infected more than 11,000 people in 42 countries and killed 86. And U.S. health officials released $1 billion for companies to get started on a vaccine in case it is needed.
The virus must be closely monitored in the southern hemisphere, as it could mix with ordinary seasonal influenza and change in unpredictable ways, Chan told the WHO annual congress in Geneva. [ID:nLM945575]
"In cases where the H1N1 virus is widespread and circulating within the general community, countries must expect to see more cases of severe and fatal infections," she said. "This is a subtle, sneaky virus."
An international team of researchers who analyzed all eight genes of the new virus confirmed its sneakiness, saying it was so different from its ancestral strains that it must have been circulating undetected for years.
They confirmed it is a hybrid of two other mixtures -- one a so-called triple reassortant of pig, bird and human viruses, and another group of swine viruses from Europe and Asia.
"The results of the study show the global need for more systematic surveillance of influenza viruses in pigs," Dr. Nancy Cox, chief of the influenza division at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told reporters.
The researchers said it is likely that other odd mixtures are infecting pigs but simply have not yet been seen.
(Excerpt) Read more at alertnet.org ...
maybe it’s hype, but the 1918 came in a double wave, a mild form in the spring, and the killer outbreak the following fall and winter.
Funny but I was having that discussion with someone earlier tonight about swine flu .... told her ... “It’s not over until summer 2010 IMO”
I’m not worried about the H1N1 virus, it’s that Swine flu that will kill us.
This version of the influenza has infected 11,000 people in 42 countries and has killed 86. The WHO, the CDC, our nations media, and public officials have done everything in their power to panic the public since it was first discovered.
Remember when the death toll in Mexico alone was about 150?
For the record, the mortality rate for the H1N1 flu so far has been 00.007818%. Another words, of 1,000 people who get this flu, 992 of them are not going to die.
And if you are healthy and acquire this influenza, there is almost no chance whatsoever that you will die.
Despite this, the WHO is even yet trying to panic the public at all cost. Nobody but nobody knows what the H1N1 flu will do by this fall. And if they did, the general populace could do jack shit about it if they did.
So what the hell is driving this constant bleating of dire predictions?
STFU already...
And if they did, the general populace couldn't do jack shit about it anyway.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't there something like 6 BILLION people in the world? So if 11,000 out of 6,000,000,000 get sick, and 86 out of 6,000,000,000 die, is that a "full pandemic" or is the WHO fear-mongering.
Aren’t more people killed in traffic accidents every year (or maybe every month) than this? It does seem like a bit of a over-reaction....
Got to have a ‘crisis’ to divert attention from 0 and the NWO activities.
Translation:
It’s not nearly as bad as we had hoped, so we’re working to hype it to more worser levels.
Yup. Several international liberal arts degreed warm fuzzy libtard types count on US handouts to maintain a living.
HEY! WATCH IT!
It’s perfectly possible to have a Liberal Arts degree and not be a fuzzy-thinking libtard.....
(Clutching my “Great Books” seminar syllabus tightly to my chest.)
True, but not many good engineers are involved with such employment (graphical engineers excluded).
'Men in Black', 'Liberty and Tyranny: A Conservative Manifesto', and 'Rescuing Sprite' are great books too especially for current times.
The Good Earth, Elanor and Franklin, The Odyssey, Huckleberry Finn, The Grapes of Wrath, and Don Quixote just to mention a few good ones too to read for keeping one's emotions keen and enteratained.
enteratained = entertained
What about the Zombie Apocalypse?
I take it you just bought a new shotgun?
I got the exact model pictured (Mossberg 590a1), complete with bayonet.

12 gauge, 9-shot, 20-inch barrel, ghost ring sights, heavy barrel, ported, and parkerized.
A mil-spec, zombie killing machine.
It may be over-reaction, it may not be. Engineers who deal in the physical realm have clearly defined systems to work in. If an engineer designs a bridge of known materials such as iron, concrete, etc, the bridge is always designed and built to withstand greater stresses than we normally expect. And when a a bridge does not collapse every time two trucks drive over it simultaneously, we do not ridicule the engineer for being too cautious.
In biological systems, we are dealing with entities with unknown and changing properties - unlike iron and concrete. In every “catastrophic” event in recent history, someone will be vilified for not doing enough to prevent its occurrence. So where is the proper point of caution and diligence that will please all? Someone will find it easier to ridicule a person who is actually taking reasonable precautions in their area of expertise.
HA! Another truck drove over that bridge and no collapse! That panty waisted shrill and effeminant engineer! Where are his b@lls?
/rant
HAPPY MEMORIAL DAY 2ndDivisionVet, Thank you so much for your service to our country
Margaret Chan is a poster-child for world-wide socialized health care......H1N1 is a windfall in that regard, as one can see in her address to the World Health Assembly......not letting a crisis go to waste!
Address to Sixty-second World Health Assembly
Geneva, Switzerland
18 May 2009
Concern over flu pandemic justified
Dr Margaret Chan
Director-General of the World Health Organization
Mister President, honourable ministers, excellencies, distinguished delegates, Dr Mahler, ladies and gentlemen,
Over the past three decades, the world has, on average, been growing richer. People have, on average, been enjoying longer and healthier lives....snip
Full text:
http://www.who.int/dg/speeches/2009/62nd_assembly_address_20090518/en/index.html
video:
http://video.who.int/streaming/wha62/wha62_chan_speech.wmv
“So what the hell is driving this constant bleating of dire predictions?”
Job security.
I agree that is a major component. “Look how bad you need us to protect you from this stuff.” Budget alert just ahead... ;-)
The WHO has refused to call a level 6 pandemic which by their definitions (flu in 2 regions with person to person spread). I was speaken to someone who’s a nurse and works at St Francis hospital in Long Island NY. She said their are dozens of suspected cases with the people in critical condition. I say suspected because they are not allowed to test for the H1N1. They went from hysteria a month ago to total denial.
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05260901/WHO_Phase_Daze.html
We live in rural NY and our household (including myself) is recovering from a flu virus right now.
We have the same thing that’s going through the local school - and I really don’t understand how they can even pretend to have an accurate accounting of what it is - or what it isn’t - because they only test critical cases that make it to the hospital.
S0- we all came down with “something” - not sick enough to go to the doctor.
And if you are healthy and acquire this influenza, there is almost no chance whatsoever that you will die.
Despite this, the WHO is even yet trying to panic the public at all cost. Nobody but nobody knows what the H1N1 flu will do by this fall. And if they did, the general populace could do jack shit about it if they did.
So what the hell is driving this constant bleating of dire predictions?
STFU already...
Typically, 1/3 of the population is likely to visibly come down with the flu. No, it's not going to happen instantly. It grows over time. But without a vaccine, as far as I can tell, that would be our expected outcome over the next 2 years or so.
At 1/3 of US population (yes, we're talking about something with the ability to totally saturate the country over time), with a 0.007817 death rate, that would be 781,800 deaths in the United States alone.
But wait... there's more.
The regular flu overwhelmingly kills people who are already at the end of their lives either by age or disease. That's not the case with this flu, which people over age 50 or 60 have some immunity to. So we're talking about potentially large numbers of people in the prime of their lives. Not a large percentage of population, but still, large numbers. If something effective is not done to stop H1N1, we will almost certainly see a lot of people die in the US alone over the next couple of years.
Now you might not personally think so, but there are a lot of us who think that something that can potentially kill more than half a million Americans in the prime of their lives is worth keeping an eye on.
In fact, for more than 5 years here at FR people have been tracking a threat that is theoretically of similar size: the terrorist threat. And even though we've had no major terrorist attack in the US in more than 7 years, and even though we have no less than 67 easily-identifiable enormous threads with somewhere between 50,000 and 100,000 posts (probably many times that when you consider all the related separate threads and posts), I don't recall anyone ever suggesting that we should stop tracking the terrorist threat.
But so far, we're only talking about potential deaths here. Even if it killed no one, this issue has the potential to make at least 1/3 of FR members highly miserable for a time and cost significant financial resources.
And a lot more than that when you consider family members. In fact, when you consider family members getting sick, this bug could potentially impact every single member of Free Republic.
Our scenario above, though, makes an AWFUL lot of assumptions. I'm only going to mention a few, this is not comprehensive.
First, it assumes no vaccine. And we'll have one, and reasonably soon. Of course, this raises all kinds of questions: How soon? How many doses will be available? How quickly and competently will they be distributed? How safe will the vaccine be? How effective will it be? We don't know. Even so, the impact will most likely be majorly blunted by a vaccine, or more than one vaccine.
On the other hand, the existing scenario also assumes that it doesn't turn worse in terms of fatality rate (which looks like a bad assumption). It assumes it doesn't become Tamiflu-resistant. It assumes enough Tamiflu is available when and where needed. It assumes that hospitals and other health care providers don't become overwhelmed. It leaves out the potential effects of eventual public panic (some emergency rooms were already overwhelmed with worried well people just a couple of weeks ago).
The bottom line is this: It is neither time to panic nor to tune out. This issue is going to be with us for a long time. If you don't want to hear any more about H1N1, then you'd better toss your computer into the dumpster now, because this issue is going to be with us at least through the next 9 months, and more likely for the next two years.
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