Hey, we got to keep this up, we have a lot of designer masks to move. [Soon to be at your nearest dollar store - stock up]
Posted on 05/04/2009 2:07:26 PM PDT by FromLori
A second wave of swine flu may strike later this year, ministers warned yesterday.
As hopes rose that the worst of the outbreak is over Health Secretary Alan Johnson said the tally of 18 cases in the Britain was likely to rise.
US health officials last night claimed the outbreak was not as deadly as first thought and the disease is peaking in Mexico.
But as three new British cases emerged over the weekend, Mr Johnson said: "At the moment all the evidence is that we can confine it, contain it, and treat it effectively.
"But with pandemics you get two phases. A first that is often very mild and then a much more serious one in the autumn and winter.- article continues below »
(Excerpt) Read more at mirror.co.uk ...
Not to understate the potential danger, but aren’t they extrapolating from one data point?
I believe it! Right around that time GM investors will get a phone call from the White House saying they’ll take what’s offered to them in their bankruptcy, or Zero will use the WH press corps to destroy their reputations.
Has our newly appointed HHS secretary weighed in on this yet?
Bookmark for later reading.
Now, if the gobmt tells me I have to get a vaccine for it, then we have a problem. I have never received ANY flu vaccine nor do I intend to ever do so.
The State Run Media are doing their jobs very well.
Same with some of the alarmists with their repetitive chants of “1918”.
Idiots.
Don’t forget the second, third, fourth and fifth waves. Just to keep the hysteria going.
The idiots may have, as with SARS, overplayed their hand too soon so that when there is a real one, many are going to pooh pooh it “’cause ‘member last time they said this”.
Hey, we got to keep this up, we have a lot of designer masks to move. [Soon to be at your nearest dollar store - stock up]
And when can we expect the third wave?
uh, still waiting for the FIRST wave (of flu not hysteria).
Since the current hysteria seems to be sputtering ... we must manufacture possible future hysteria.
SnakeDoc
non-event 2.0?
no wai!
E.Pluribus, I chose you because you have a sign-up date closer to my own, and have been on FR long enough to notice such things.
It seems all the fashion in the past few days to “poo-poo” the flu, right along with the main-stream media. How many of us are watching the local reports, or sleuthing through the net to see what is really going on with the spread of the flu. Most have accepted the talking points of the day.
The potential impact of this flu is being downplayed for economic reasons, as the latest WHO release states. Please keep in mind the older Freepers here, and those younger ones who have health issues.
My husband, for example, has Parkinson’s. Do you all think it really wise to be casual about bringing home the flu to him? Our local and rural school district is closed right now - confirmed by the CDC to have the flying pig flu.
Yet this case, and several other “probables” in our area aren’t showing up in the national reports, even though our local health department has reported the confirmation to the local newspaper.
We are not panicking here, but we are preparing, and being cautious about spending time in crowds, markets, drugstores, and other locations where contagious folks are apt to congregate.
Even if this flu is mild for most, it might not be for my husband and others who have difficulty coughing properly.
There are many reasons why the .gov folks might want to downplay this. Avoiding panic is one reason, and any disruption of our “just-in-time” inventory is another.
Please understand, I hope all you optimists are correct. But, here in our area, it seems wiser to err on the side of caution.
dude, they released the first wave themselves with their lab engineered,2 parts pig, 1 part human, 1part avian, very contagious but not very lethal strain. Now that we’re all cowed and the military in place, the next wave of a deadlier lab engineered strain ought have us all up on hindquarters saying, “yes sir , no sir, right away sir.”, to Obama’s heart’s content. Nothing is happening by accident these days comrade.
The fears are genuine and serious. About the only time a light flu hits in late spring, it is followed months later by a much more potent flu. We don’t know why.
The 1889-90 Russian flu was preceded by a light flu in May. Then its deadly form hit in December.
The 1918 Spanish flu hit first in March, in a mild form. Then its deadly form hit in August. (This assumes they were the same flu. Many people caught it both times.)
The 1956-’58 Asian flu had a mild form in February, and its severe form hit the US in June.
The 1968 Hong Kong flu also was preceded by a late spring flu. Then the really nasty flu hit in July.
The bottom line is the US can no more relax with influenza than it could about nuclear weapons during the Cold War. Except influenza is far more certain than nuclear war.
not-so-certain ping
You just want millions of people to die so you can act superior and say "I told you so."
That's exactly what the global warming hoaxers say!
I tend to judge people by the company they keep. You keep bad company.
This is getting silly.
It’s gone past silly to completely ridiculous.
E. Pluribus, are you joking?
I can’t believe you don’t see how this could affect my husband.
Just keep up your blind faith in the tabloid media and their lying hysterics.
While you're at it, you can keep up with the latest on Britney, too.
The comparison is valid because at its current lethality, H5N1 influenza poses the largest mortality risk to the US, outside of horrific natural disaster or nuclear war.
Plague population disasters are a rarity, but there are some known examples, such as the intentional introduction of Myxomatosis to control Australia’s rabbit population, which wiped out 99% of the rabbits in that country in 1950.
http://www.csiro.au/science/MyxomatosisHistory.html
H5N1 Influenza is a “perfect storm” of an already deadly group of diseases, which regularly kills about 36,000 Americans every year. It is not hype, it is the real thing, and has the potential to kill 30 million Americans, and perhaps as many as 1 billion people worldwide.
Currently, there are three major subgroups of H5N1, and the Egyptian version has mutated into a less lethal pediatric disease. This offers it the opportunity to “figure out” how to readily transfer from human to human, after which is can easily regain its 60% mortality rate.
This H1N1 late spring outbreak is especially troubling, because late spring influenza outbreaks have preceded the last four major severe influenza epidemics, happening in the subsequent July-December window. So world health authorities will have to remain on full alert for the entire second half of this year.
There are times when I wish Free Republic had an “ignore” list. This is one of them.
Easy to do. Just don’t post to me, and you’ll never hear from me again.
You’re the one who contacted me.
Taking note of that, E. Pluribus. I am so sorry that I did. Please forgive my indiscretion.
But no influenza virus has ever reached even a tenth of those casualty figure except one, the Spanish 1918 flu.
That flu evolved in environments that have no parallel today: the densely packed trenches and troop ships of World War I, with tens of thousands of men spending weeks, even months, within inches of each other. In other words, a perfect environment for a flu to mutate into maximum lethality.
What you don't want to accept is that when viruses mutate, they are almost always mutating in the direction of less lethality, not more. Flus that are too lethal will quickly kill themselves into extinction. Therefore there is extraordinary natural-selection pressure on the flu to mutate into a form that allows it to spread to as many hosts as possible, by letting them live.
For those of you who are interested in following the latest information on where the flu is breaking out, and if it might be heading your way, this is a good site with just the facts, no hype, and no editorializing.
This does not take into account other factors, primarily animal vectors. The H5N1 influenza has an extraordinarily large number of animal vectors, which have varying responses to the disease. It is unique, for example, in afflicting both canines and felines, which have radically different immune systems.
Some varieties of birds will die from the disease within a day or two, while others will carry it for weeks or longer with little ill effect.
So while you are correct that diseases do become weaker over time, this *only* happens once the disease has emerged into a species, *and* the more lethal strains have reduced its numbers so much that less lethal strains can emerge.
Until that time, communicability matters far more than mortality, within a similar incubation period. This is easily demonstrated mathematically, and was even available in software simulations in the 1980s.
Translation - Obama will need more cover in the fall for whatever shannigans he will be pulling then ...
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