During the fall of 2007, Rasmussen and Survey USA showed Sununu losing by 10-15 points. At first, I thought they looked too good to be true. As the situation in Iraq improved, Sununu’s poll numbers imporved as well. He didn’t look DOA. Rasmussen even had Sununu tied in mid-Sept 08. Then the financial crisis came and Sununu went back to being DOA. Absent the financial crisis, Sununu could have won.
Those initial ‘07 numbers didn’t pass the smell test, and as I suspected, it was really never wider than 5-6% for the bulk of it.