[fieldmarshaldj]

Billy, there was no reason for Sununu to step aside in ‘08. I never saw polling that indicated he trailed by double-digits. He was usually behind by a modest margin (I think an average of 6%, IIRC), but not a gap that couldn’t be closed (and at one point, I saw polling data that he had closed that gap). There weren’t necessarily any clear-cut candidates that could step in to replace him. We had no House members, there was no mention of any former Governors. More than likely, a second-tier candidate would’ve come forward, and we still would’ve lost. I don’t back him now because I know the actual results of the last election and we have enough time to bring in a Steve Merrill or Frank Guinta to take a shot. I would, however, like to see polling data on head-to-head matchups between them and Hodes.

[yongin]

During the fall of 2007, Rasmussen and Survey USA showed Sununu losing by 10-15 points. At first, I thought they looked too good to be true. As the situation in Iraq improved, Sununu’s poll numbers imporved as well. He didn’t look DOA. Rasmussen even had Sununu tied in mid-Sept 08. Then the financial crisis came and Sununu went back to being DOA. Absent the financial crisis, Sununu could have won.

[BillyBoy]

I'd be willing to bet that if you compared Smith's poll numbers against Shaheen in 2002, and then looked at those same polling firms showing Sununu's numbers against Shaheen in 2008, you'd find the numbers were pretty close. A handul of polls had them behind by double digits, a couple of times they were within the margin of error, but at no time was Smith 2002 or Sununu 2008 polling ahead of RAT Shaheen (at least not within the margin of error). I'm pretty sure I can make a good case that Sununu's re-election prospects in 2008 were as good as Smith six years earlier. Both were weak incumbents in their respective election years.

Also, bear in mind that Smith was "written off" as dead meat against Swett in 1996, but won re-election to the Senate. Sununu can't claim the same. You guys were all insisting he'd magically recover at the last minute and pull off a win, but he didn't. Sununu is a one-termer. By defition that makes Smith's Senate campaigns more "successful"