When population turns political

Gaston Gazette ^ | March 23, 2009 | Barry Smith

[MitchellC]

Census results probably will lead to jockeying for partisan representation

North Carolina continues to be a fast-growing state. And new data released by the Census Bureau this past week shows the Raleigh area to be the fastest-growing metropolitan region in the nation.

The increased population has a lot of demographers and politicians alike hoping that after the next census, North Carolina will get an additional congressional seat.

The census will be conducted next year. Its purpose, as stipulated in the Constitution, is to find out how many people live in each of the states so that the number of members in the U.S. House of Representatives can be equally apportioned.

Faster-growing states usually pick up seats in the U.S. House, while states that lose population or grow at a pace slower than the rest of the nation could wind up losing seats.

For decades, North Carolina had 11 members in the U.S. House. Following the 1990 census, a 12th member of the House was added to the state. Following the 2000 census, North Carolina was given 13 seats after narrowly beating out Utah for the last available seat.

One reason North Carolina was able to beat out Utah was that people stationed at military bases in the state count toward the population, even if they're deployed overseas.

The increase in military presence in the state and the current number of North Carolina-based troops stationed overseas have a lot of people thinking that North Carolina could again be in line for an additional seat. If so, that would give North Carolina 14 members in the U.S. House.

It will be up to the General Assembly to decide how to redraw congressional district lines in 2011, once all the data are in. That will raise the stakes for the 2010 legislative elections, since it will be those elected next year who will ultimately decide how the district lines fall.

If Democrats maintain majorities in both the N.C. House and N.C. Senate, you can bet that they'll draw the lines designed to send more Democrats to Washington. If Republicans are able to gain majorities in those chambers, the reverse would be true. If Democrats hold in one but Republicans take the other, then there could be a lot of work at the redistricting negotiating table. By the way, that same census will be used to redraw the 120 state House and 50 state Senate districts. A decade ago, lawsuits followed the legislative redistricting actions.

Restricting is the most political act taken by the General Assembly. Ten years ago, it got ugly. I'd be surprised if the same didn't occur two years from now.

[MitchellC]

Population Politics Posted by Jeff Mixon

Barry Smith, Capital Correspondent for Freedom Newspapers has a piece out today about the effects of North Carolina's growing population on this state's representation in Congress. We could be in line for another seat in the U.S. House of Representatives after the next census.

Barry brings up the point that the fighting over redrawing the district lines could get ugly. Like it did back in 2002, 2003 and 2004. You could have another situation where a member of the redistricting committee decides that not only would he like his own seat in Congress, he'll draw the lines so dramatically that he really won't need to campaign too hard every two years. All of this speculation is hypothetical, of course, and should bare no resemblance to any current members of Congress from Raleigh named Brad Miller. (That's Miller in the pic conferring with Sen. Dodd of AIG bonus fame.)

(Population Politics cont'd)

[MitchellC]

NC *Ping*

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[KTM rider]

I hear ACORN is ready to help out with the census

[Impy]

Unless the GOP can win the state house in 2010 the rats will control North Carolina redistricting, again. The results would be very uncool.

[KTM rider]

I am sure ACORN would be glad to help get those districts all set up fair

[Liberty Valance]

bttt

[MitchellC]

The 2010 election in North Carolina is absolutely crucial, but I think this article understates the case. Not only will there be an added district, but with the re-drawing of lines, Democrats could possibly squeeze out one of the existing Republican districts, creating for themselves two more districts.

[Impy]

I don’t think they could eliminate a current GOP seat, those Republicans have to go somewhere, the remaining ones are all pretty Republican. But they could alter the Shuler seat (he’ll likely vacate it to run for Senate next year”) and the 8th district to make them more rat and harder to take back. And shore up their other less than safe seats as well as give themselves the new one.

[MitchellC]

Shuler announced he wasn’t running for the Senate last week.

The real problems are the 3rd (Walter Jones) and 9th (Sue Myrick). With Charlotte’s growing population, they could squeeze the 9th further into the city, losing red areas in Gaston and Union counties. Formerly mixed areas of western/southwestern Charlotte-Mecklenburg are now hard blue, and parts of Mel Watt’s 12th could go to the 9th (as well as the 8th to make up for any addition of red areas). Etc, etc.

[Impy]

“Shuler announced he wasn’t running for the Senate last week.”

I missed that. Well that’s good news for Burr.

“Formerly mixed areas of western/southwestern Charlotte-Mecklenburg are now hard blue, and parts of Mel Watt’s 12th could go to the 9th (as well as the 8th to make up for any addition of red areas).”

Red as in communist?

[MitchellC]

Burr isn’t off the hook yet. He’d probably have a tough opponent in just about any Democrat in this environment, but his likely opponent will be popular Attorney General Roy Cooper, who might end up being a tougher opponent than Shuler.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Newsspeak colors are baffling. Even more baffling is why us Republicans swallowed being labelled Communist Red.

[fieldmarshaldj]

That’d be like the seat coming full circle when Dem AG Bob Morgan won the seat in 1974 (who set the precedent for the seat turning out the incumbent party every election hence). Hopefully Burr will break the curse, but there being no nasty Cooper-Shuler internecine slugfest, it makes it harder for him.

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

Maybe Dole transferred the curse onto her seat. You would certainly think that could be the case, the way she imploded.

[Clintonfatigued]

“Red as in communist?”

Once again, the MSM tries to change the meaning of the Red symbol.

[fieldmarshaldj]

We really should’ve run someone else for the seat in ‘02. Maybe Sue Myrick. Dole took for granted that she’d win again, and that was a big mistake. ‘08, after all, was only the first time she’d ever run for office as the incumbent.

[darkangel82]

Her voting record last year didn’t help either. Walter Jones and the departed RINO Robin Hayes have made trouble for the party.

[DanZanRyu]

Could the Southern GOP go back to that 70s show? When Southern folks voted for one of their local Rodent boys who claimed to be a good ol’ Dixie boy who an independent thinker. When he voted consistently with Ted Kennedy 90% of the time, he gets booted by the GOP challenger. Next election cycle, the Southern folks decide to vote for one of their own good ol’ Rodent boys again.

[Impy]

Or in this case a Freeper.