I don’t know what to think about this. John Sununu was a bright, capable Senator, but I don’t know if he would be the strongest candidate.
Sununu won in 2002 because the GOP brand was strong back then. Sununu lost in 2008 just because the GOP brand was poor. He lost re-election 52-44. In the potential matchup polls, Sununu is polling at 44-46. I think that is his glass ceiling. Let Sununu run for Hodges’s House seat. Then when the GOP brand improves, Sununu could go for round 3 against Jean Shaheen.
Sununu should be the nominee. He is stronger than you think. Shaheen was a popular Governor in NH with broad appeal among Independents. It was an upset that he beat her in 2002.
With Shaheen no longer as his opponent, and Hodes, who is not univerally liked instead, Sununu could build a huge advantage in the 1st District, where Shaheen hailed, to overcome Hodes’ support in the 2nd to win the seat.
Futhermore, 2010 is not going to be another 2006 or 2008. With Dems in power, voters, especially in NH will want to divide the goverment, though perhaps not on the scale of 1994. In fact, in 2008, the Republicans made gains in the NH State House. Futhermore, with the Iraq War over, and deficit spending by the Democrats, the NH voters will likely be more friendly to Republicans, who they were upset with over the Iraq War and Bush’s Spending Problem.
Sununu can beat Hodes, and though he’s down 46-44 right now, 45% is what he got in 2008. He can only go up from here.
By the way, there are some well-liked State Senators in the 1st and 2nd District that could take both seats from the Democrats. Lets use the Republicans huge bench in the State to win those seats, and use the statewide guys like Sununu to go for the big ticket offices. Im pretty sure Sununu woulnd’t want to return to the House (1 in 435) after being in the Senate (1 in 100). Look for a serious run at both the house seats in 2010. Bradley is running to hold a NH State Senate seat after the newly elected Republican resigned after a DUI. With Bradley out of the picture, Frank Guinta, Mayor of Manchester (1/6 of the 1st District), is looking to run at Che-Porter. In the more liberal 2nd District, there are a couple state Senators looking to take a run at it, who could give the Dems (likely Katrina Swett, whose husband lost the seat back in 1994) a run for their money.
Who else do we have? Sununu is reasonably conservative and pro-life; I like him. I would prefer to see new blood but I want to see a winner.
I think Merrill or the Mayor of Manchester would be stronger. And DJ once mentioned the state AG.
He would be the strongest candidate. That might be damning with faint praise, but that’s the situation.