Posted on 12/14/2008 10:05:43 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster
Forecast: A Long, Cold Winter
Stephanie Pomboy, Founder and President, MacroMavens
By LAWRENCE C. STRAUSS
AN INTERVIEW WITH STEPHANIE POMBOY: It will take consumers at least five years -- and probably more -- to recover from this crisis.
"LIKE THE BUBBLE IN FINANCIAL ASSETS, THE NEW REAL-ESTATE bubble has its own distinctly disturbing characteristics," Stephanie Pomboy wrote in an April 2002 note titled "The Great Bubble Transfer." The founder and president of MacroMavens was on to something, even if she was early, and she worried about the big buildup of consumer debt fueled by rising home prices. Pomboy, whose Manhattan firm analyzes macroeconomic themes and their investment implications, remains bearish, convinced that a long period of paltry U.S. economic growth is in store -- akin to what happened in Japan in the 1990s. For more of her views and forecasts, read on. [pic] Brad Trent for Barron's "If you want to get long socialism, one of the next market segments that will be given a guarantee will be municipal bonds." –Stephanie Pomboy
Barron's: How bad has the macro economy gotten?
Pomboy: It is certainly the toughest one any of us has lived through. My fear is that it's actually just in the early stages and that it is going to get substantially worse on the economic side, although all the government measures that have taken place so far might help to insulate some of the damage on the financial side.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.barrons.com ...
We need some booze.:-)
ping!
The unemployment rate continues to rise. It is very hard to figure out how you break out of that.Scary.
Can't wait till AGW comes back
My power flickered a couple times, but stayed on.
I was way more worried about the wind Friday than the cold or snow. Guess I’m still gun shy about the tree coming down on my shed two years ago!
Went out this AM and thawed out my hose bibs outside and set them to slowly drip, started the car and drove down to the corner to check the roads. Icy, but not too bad. I got chains in the trunk I can put on if I need to.
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I happened to visit a Wal-Mart superstore in southern New Hampshire yesterday evening, looking to buy some smoked salmon. The deli was dark and empty. The meat counter was bare. Just fresh produce available. They'd had to throw everything out due to losing power in the wake of Thursday's ice storm.
Fortunately, the smoked salmon I was after is packed in a manner that does not require refrigeration ("Best by Dec 2014"). On a shelf between empty refrigerated display cases was a stack of them. So, I grabbed 10 8oz boxes of alder-smoked Alaska salmon, at $6.48 each.
The store was packed with shoppers, and the parking lot was full, BTW.
>>What about unemployment?
Having the standard unemployment rate at 10% is definitely a possibility, though it does depend on what is done in terms of the state and local governments, which are 13% of total employment. But they have been the only area that is growing right now in terms of employment.<<
Whats a hose bib ? and should I do the same thing?
Your outside faucets where you attach hoses. If they freeze, they may burst. If you have any, go outside and open them up to get a slow, small, once every five second or so drip. The drip will prevent them from freezing.
A hose bib is like a sillcock except it isn’t freeze proof.
Of course it’s gorebal warming.
My power was out for 18 hours, I was going to move into my camper.
Thanks for another great article. I’m not familiar with Pomboy. Funny how she is long gold, China and commodities, which Peter Schiff and Jim Rogers get roundly criticized for.
Scary call, this Japanesque recovery, but that has been one of the favored outcomes of this crisis.
She does well to remind us that the scale of the debt and deleveraging is just mammoth in comparison to anything we have seen in our lifetimes. You really have to go back to the Depression to see such massive debt and deleveraging.
I like the way she came out very strongly against government interference with bailouts, etc, and against socializing losses.
Thanks for giving me a new name to add to my reading list, when I can find her.
Anybody who still thinks this is just a normal economic downturn, or the media talked down the economy to help Obama, or that Obama caused this with some minor fear of tax increases and socialized medicine, is just a brain-dead idiot who refuses to study, do homework, and learn the scope and scale and nature of this financial/economic crisis.
You know what I think? I think 1 in 10 people who post bother to read the article. The article gives compelling food for thought, and 9 out of 10 people posting on the thread read the title “Long, Cold Winter” and add random comments about todays weather. Simply idiotic. I don’t know why you bother.
I’m pretty fatigued about the depressing state of the economy, about preaching to the few in the choir here who get it, and about the hordes of the ignorant here who don’t know two bits about this liquidity crisis, now financial/economic crisis.
I’ve mostly quit posting articles about the economy here, since the choir all know where to get timely information, and the hordes of ignorant aren’t going to bother to read the articles. I’ll post a really compelling article I think the choir should read. Other than that, I’ve just lost the patience to try to educate all of the ignorant people here about what is really going on. Good to see they haven’t worn you out yet. I’m made of weaker stuff.
“The unemployment rate continues to rise. It is very hard to figure out how you break out of that.”
Well, I’m pretty sure that PRINTING WORTHLESS CURRENCY won’t do it, ya jerks!
How about we get Government out of the ‘business of business’ and let Business take care of herself? It’s called ‘Free Enterprise’ or ‘The Free Market.’
Some of you may have heard of it. It was once quite popular. *SHRUG*
Don’t give up. Ping me to things you find important. I know we’re on the same side of a lot of issues. I’ll discuss them with you. Screw the others, LOL!
I’m not giving up. I hold it my DUTY to keep preachin’ about this stuff. People get sick of me and my positive attitude toward precious metals, vice funds, contrarian investing and other commodities, but it ain’t braggin’ if you can DO it! And d@mmit, I am!
I haven’t lost my job (fairly recession proof industry, though the weather makes a big difference, and if I do lose it, I’ll work for myself; I’m just THAT good!)
I haven’t lost my house. I’ve never bought more house than I could afford, and I’ve ‘flipped’ more houses in the past 25 years than some of these youngsters have changed their socks, LOL!
I’ve MADE money in this ‘down’ economy. You CAN make money, good times and bad, even when the bad times are ‘manufactured’ by the MSM. Imagine that! As far as I can tell, we’ve been in ‘dire straights’ since President Bush took office nearly 9 years ago! ;)
It IS up to those of us that HAVE a clue to educate others. I don’t even care if they respond; I’ve done my duty, and so have you. :)
Thanks. There are plenty of good people here and plenty who mean well. My biggest problem is me. I’ve been studying the financial and economic mess for about 18 months now and the fatigue is just getting to me. It is depressing reading a parade of bad news for 18 months, knowing that there is so much more bad news ahead. I just want it over. Reading all this bad news, even though true, just gets taxing over time and sometimes I feel like just shutting down and ignoring everything. Pretend everything is fine. I’m just sick of this bad news and knowing it isn’t getting better, but worse, is taking its toll. I want to read about happiness and hopefulness, not decline and decay. Oh well...
The Obama chill.
Thanks for posting this very interesting article, Tiger. I feel like the lady makes sense, though I don’t consider myself competent to really judge.
However, if I understand correctly, the private sector in America is furiously trying to deleverage while the public sector in the form of the federal government is furiously leveraging itself like never before in history, perhaps in the hopes that the private sector will itself go back to borrowing, so everyone can pretend like everything is great.
I get the feeling that due to constant intervention by government, the economy has been artificially pumped up for a good long time now. Like 15 or 20 years. That would cover both Republican and Democrat administrations and Congresses.
“I want to read about happiness and hopefulness, not decline and decay. Oh well...”
We are in for a rough time ahead. Instead of worrying, get busy! Learn what it is that you have to do to protect you and yours...and screw the rest of ‘em.
As far as I’m concerned, Government got us into this mess, but MORE Government will not get us out of it. It’s every Freeper for him/herself these days where our money is concerned.
Meant to ping you to #24, Sam.
Thanks. I pretty much concur. I’m doing my best to understand what is happening economically, in hopes of taking the right stance for defense.
I heard a guy from the investment world on the radio this morning urging everyone to borrow and take risks to get the economy going again. Of course, one cannot avoid taking risks, every move one makes carries a risk, but on the whole, while I’d agree that remaining frozen is not an option, I’d think minimizing risk has the best chance of success. Considering what just happened.
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