Posted on 11/03/2008 3:48:09 PM PST by thirdgradeteacher
A house in my ‘hood that had an obambi sign in the yard for quite some time, now has just some other Dem candidate signs. I think they pulled down their own sign.I still think McCain[Palin win BIG!
The polls and pundits were embarrassingly wrong in 1980.
If ever there was a year to confound the “experts”, this is it:
Bradley/Wilder effect
PUMAs
ACORN voter registrations giving rise to pollster oversampling of Dems
Youth vote myth
Democrat complacency
These guys are ripe for the pickin’!
Are you a member of the NEA and what consequences do your students suffer when they don’t follow the rules?
One thing to add: the PUMAs will roar. We have a number of them here posting and lurking, and I again want to thank them for the work they’ve done.
An old newspaper photograph haunts the dreams of every US pollster. A grinning Harry Truman, having won the 1948 presidential election despite every prediction, is holding up a copy of the Chicago Tribune. It reads: “Dewey defeats Truman”.
Could it happen again? Every pollster is predicting a victory for Barack Obama. Might a grinning John McCain be pictured on Wednesday triumphantly holding a pile of incorrect polling data?
There are two things that say that he might.
The first is that American pollsters have not yet experienced what happened here in 1992 – when the polls pointed to a Labour victory but John Major won. The conventional wisdom is that 1992 was great for the Tories but terrible for the pollsters. In the long run, the opposite turned out to be true. Victory in 1992 turned to ashes for the Conservatives, whereas the pollsters used the debacle to get themselves sorted out.
Now British polls are properly and carefully weighted, taking account of what is known as the spiral of silence – the tendency of voters for the less fashionable party to keep their intentions to themselves. British pollsters weight their results to allow for these shy voters. US pollsters do not.
It isn’t unreasonable to believe that there could be a Republican spiral of silence. And that US pollsters are all missing it.
...
Keith Olbermann will have a nervous breakdown on the air, he will take the report of McCain winning, crumple it up, throw it at Matthews head and storm off the set.
I’m looking forward to inauguration day with President John McCain, and the first woman VP, Sarah Palin!
On Wednesday, I’m looking forward to seeing a few idjits who live near me outside, on their knees at their cars, scraping their 01.20.09 bumperstickers off!
With the help of God, Diebold and Dick Cheney.. how can we lose!
I try to remain optimistic.
I have a black lady co-worker, big Obama supporter but otherwise very nice and intelligent.
I've been telling her for weeks that we have it rigged.
I'd hate for us to lose and spoil my fun.
I PRAY you are correct. Popular vote don't mean squat [except that it gives the dims something to gripe about]
PRAY and VOTE!
Read HamiltonJay’s posts for lots of optimism backed up by on the ground observations of the scene in PA. Go PA!
Just one correction. Pilots do not go to the happy hunting ground.
Okay, then how ‘bout.
That Great Hanger in the Sky
I believe that the majority of my fellow Americans cherish freedom. I believe that most of us understand the evils of communism.
I believe that we will prevail.
B.O. is the least experienced, most radical candidate ever.
If he were white, he’d lose more states than Dukakis.
Liberal guilt cannot make up that much ground.
I live in the people’s republic of Upstate NY...(Moonbat Maurice “un-Fairness Doctrine” Hinchey is my congress-critter)...and you can deduce who my senators are.
At the grocery store Saturday morning...I saw a gentleman with a McCain/Palin hat. I complimented the gentleman for his taste in headgear. Very modestly, he said “My wife picked it out”, and we exchanged a thumbs-up...as I went down another aisle...I said to the gentleman “That’s even more reason to get your wife some flowers”...
The Hillary Clinton Forum and Hillbuzz are more optimistic about McCain’s chances than FR! They’ve been very enjoyable reads for me.
Can't. Got none.
I'm going off line until Wednesday. I taped the Giants-Cowgirls game to watch tomorrow.
If he wins - we've got a big, BIG problem.
Enjoy tomorrow, those of you who can stand it.
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