Posted on 11/03/2008 9:08:39 AM PST by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 185 Electoral Votes and Barack Obama would receive 353 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 193.65 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/27/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/20/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/13/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/6/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/29/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/22/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/15/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/8/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/1/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/30/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/23/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/16/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/9/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/2/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/26/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/19/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/12/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/5/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
I guess I will just stay home tomorrow then..../sarc
My only regret is that I have but ONE vote to give for my country!!!
How right were they in 2004
Boy, are those intraders gonna be shocked on Election Night!
Well, I guess we might as well not show up with these numbers.
How can obama get all the votes kerry got? Add a million or two mad hillary voters to that spread and it’s LESS close than 04.....
Vote McCain/Palin!!!!!!!
“My only regret is that I have but ONE vote to give for my country!!! “
Join ACORN, and you can have two or more.
In 2004 they correctly predicted the results of every state.
I can only vote.
An easily manipulated bit of rubbish...
This particular analysis was pretty accurate from a statistical point of view in 2004. However, if you want to see how accurate it is, go look at the swing Bush got around 5PM or so on Election Day 2004. I think it had Bush in the lead in the AM, a 90/10 swing to Kerry around 2PM, and back to Bush at 7PM or so.
Just don’t go getting all wobbly....we’re not dead by any stretch of the imagination. FWIW, I was a nervous wreck in 2004, kind of right about 2006 (I knew the house was gone, but the Senate shocked me somewhat). This year just seems different...the numbers being thrown around are silly and it is almost like they need to make this race tight on purpose. If they are right, we’re doomed (this year), but all of this reeks of manufactured support for Obama.
Going to be a lot of “traders” who are going to lose a bundle.
if I wanted to see the obama poll cheerleaders I just need to look at Yahoo’s numbers.
Well, at about 7 p.m. Election Day they were right on the money. A few hours before, however, LOL.
In fact day traders are a lousy bunch to bet along with as 80% of them lose money. Most are basing their decision on faulty data spread by the msm and weighted by erroneous voter registrations via ACORN or like minded commies.
This is, at best, an echo of the polling results.
I know two retired men from NYC who live here in Canada—they’re diehard Hillary supporters and cannot stand Obama.
I couldn’t believe it, but they both voted for McCain.
Don’t Lose Hope.
Remember Obama has spent 500 million dollars to convince you the race is over.
I belong to a PUMA group. We are those loud former DEMS that are voting for McCain.
We used to be part of the smokescreen that tried to convince you to stay home and give up. Don’t believe it.
Don’t know how they were in ‘04, but there are only 4,475 registered users in their universe.
There’s a lot of people who voted for Bush that are voting for Obama. I guess most are independents. I don’t think they are really republicans, but there are some republicans drinking the Obama Kool-Aid.
As they say about all such trade block, "past results are no guarantee of future performance."
All this does is encourage me to GOTV in NC.
There will be plenty of time for deconstruction AFTER late, late, late tomorrow night.
We're overdue for another 1948.
Also, the more polls which can be skewed to look like an Obama win will give room for the moonbats to claim another "stolen" election if McCain does win, which would weaken a McCain administration for the next four or eight years. Intrade has been portrayed as the "perfect" poll because people are actually putting money at risk, but if a few are trying to skew it for political benefit then it isn't so perfect anymore.
I regret that I do not have some serious money to place on some of those states.
I don't know how much it would take to skew the results.
It's probably in the thousands.
That's pocket change to Soros.
If it all falls my way I stand to make $4500 on approximately $500 in investments. If McCain wins I could make anywhere from $2000 to $4500. If McCain loses but NC and FL fall my way I cover. If McCain loses but NC, FL, and OH fall then I make about $300. If PA, FL and VA fall to McCain I am up $1000 minimum.
Shrewd investments can ensure profit! Think out scenarios and cover yourself. If Obama wins it might be the last money you can make for a while....
It’s a zero sum market. Slightly less than zero sum considering transaction costs.
But for every dollar lost by a “trader” there will be a dollar made by a “trader’.
The price distribution among the states is highly skewed and is thus very unlikely to be predictive.
Note that Intrade is often used as a market into which other betting syndicates lay off risk.
I think there is enormous money to be made on Intrade this year in very many of the state markets.
Good Luck !
jas3
Hillary has a lot of voters in California that will not vote for 0bamma!!!!!!............
Actually I’m pretty sure they had Pawlenty at about 80% or so the night before. Either way, they were wrong. They don’t have any more knowledge of what will happen tomorrow than we do.
Intrade Market Summary (This is what I am using to trade with, but you are on your own:-) You can fund an account with a credit card with some extra security steps.
Pretty Safe Bets
Montana $7.50 to get $10.00
N. Dakota $7.50 - $10.00
Arizona $8.50 - $10.00
Low Risk
Georgia $7.50 - $10.00
Missouri $5.00 - $10.00
Indiana $6.50 - $10.00
North Carolina $3.50 - $10.00
Moderate Risk
Florida $3.00 - $10.00
Nevada $1.50 - $10.00
Ohio $2.00 - $10.00
Higher Risk
Virginia $1.75 - $10.00
Pennsylvania $1.20 - $10.00
New Mexico $2.00 - $10.00
Colorado $1.70 - $10.00
New Hampshire $1.40 - $10.00
Clint Eastwood
Wisconsin .50 - 10.00
New Jersey .40 - 10.00
Minnesota .90 - 10.00
Michigan .50 - 10.00
Iowa .65 - 10.00
California .20 - 10.00
I don’t believe they’re very accurate at all. They have undervalued McCain so badly, that it’s jaw dropping. They have Franken up. I think these guys are betting with their hearts and not their heads. Sooner or later, it will cost them.
We’re doomed.
They correctly predicted every state in the nation in 2004.
But this is 2008 ....
Somethings are very different this time like ...
the P.U.M.A. factor,
The Bradley effect,
Cell phones instead of land lines,
I think polling will be farther off this time
Either Obama is gonna win big or this is truly a historic miscalculation by Intrade. In ‘04 the big upswing for Kerry in the afternoon came when a bunch of phony exit polls were released.
I don’t think these numbers are manufactured, but this is a unique situation. A lot of the bettors are Europeans and they are convinced Obama is a lock. He is just like them. I think a lot of others are betting with their hearts as well. They could be very wrong this time around.
I don’t understand why there is so much Obama Kool-Aid drinking going on when there is no evidence to justify it. Not a shred, except the media trying to will it to happen.
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