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Counting Your Chickens Before They Hatch
BC Politics ^ | November 02, 2008 | Dave Nalle

Posted on 11/02/2008 10:12:47 PM PST by Exton1

For a minute I thought it was next Sunday, because they were all talking about the election in the past tense, with questions like "when was it that John McCain lost this election?"

The discussion came down mostly to how much of a landslide the election is going to be for Obama, with no consideration of the possibility of any other outcome.

Apparently the media has entirely convinced itself that exit polls of early voting can accurately predict the overall outcome of the election, despite the fact that it has been definitively proven that people lie pathologically to exit pollsters, as was demonstrated in 2000 and 2004.

It is almost enough to raise the suspicion that they are engaging in psyops-style vote suppression and attempting to convince people not to vote because the outcome is predetermined.

One of the fundamental mistakes the punditocracy and the pollsters seems to be making is the assumption that high voter turnout means that lots more Democrats are voting and that independents are turning out to vote Democrat.

They seem to be overlooking the reality that Obama is a polarizing figure and his power to turn out voters may very well include the power to turn out a lot of voters who oppose him.

A second important mistake is the assumption that Obama has a strong appeal to the middle and working class. The predictions of the pollsters and pundits seem to give no consideration at all to the possibility that Obama may be losing a remarkable number of votes among the white middle class to whom the McCain message and Sarah Palin's union background and populist persona are very appealing.

The third mistake is the chronic Democratic assumption that voters are stupid and uninformed.

(Excerpt) Read more at blogcritics.org ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: mistake; obamamccain; vote

1 posted on 11/02/2008 10:12:47 PM PST by Exton1
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To: Exton1

Good article and right on the money. The pundits are complete idiotic fools and this whill be clearly shown on November 5. This election will be a referendum on barack obama an it will be thumbs down.


2 posted on 11/02/2008 10:17:14 PM PST by HerrBlucher
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To: Exton1

Correct me if I am mistaken but hasn’t early voting been less favorable to Obama than Kerry in 2004?


3 posted on 11/02/2008 10:17:25 PM PST by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: Exton1

4 posted on 11/02/2008 10:19:01 PM PST by Emperor Palpatine ("Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen.)
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To: Exton1
Let the MSM and Elitist Pundits have their fun counting those chickens...that way we can all sit back on November 5th and have some scrambled eggs and watch all of them eat crow.
5 posted on 11/02/2008 10:19:30 PM PST by T Lady (Palin-Jindal 2012)
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To: Emperor Palpatine
ROTFLMBO!!!!
6 posted on 11/02/2008 10:20:49 PM PST by T Lady (Palin-Jindal 2012)
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To: T Lady

They should be eating crow, but they will claim that they were justified and that everyone who voted for McCain is a racist boob hick.


7 posted on 11/02/2008 10:21:08 PM PST by ForbesFan
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To: Exton1

In Obama’s case, I’d say it’s “counting your chickens before they come home to roost”.


8 posted on 11/02/2008 10:24:06 PM PST by Question Liberal Authority (Make your own damn pie.)
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To: HerrBlucher

thats the reason the dems pushed hard to get people to vote early - to skew the polls! early voters are not new voters.


9 posted on 11/02/2008 10:24:06 PM PST by Eric Esot
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To: Exton1
Great article, and this part I really liked:

There's a very real possibility that the McCain/Palin campaign is largely flying under the radar and that their successes are being almost entirely overlooked by those who are watching the election.

I believe this is happening. The media and the DC/NYC insiders love the idea of Obama so much, they refuse to step back and look at reality.
10 posted on 11/02/2008 10:27:15 PM PST by snarkytart
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To: Norman Bates

The way I understood it, yes and no, the Black Vote has turned out heavily in early voting, the youth vote has not.

FL remains mixed, NC there was a huge early turnout, but it ran for two weeks, anyone who was crazed about the Obamao has cast their ballot.

Ehh...Nov 4th...vote..’nuff said.


11 posted on 11/02/2008 10:27:53 PM PST by padre35 (Sarah Palin is the one we've been waiting for..Rom 10.10..)
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To: ForbesFan
So I guess that would make me an Oreo Sellout since I voted for McCain as well.

I refuse to sell the future of this country down the road to Socialism and Serfdom.

12 posted on 11/02/2008 10:28:14 PM PST by T Lady (Palin-Jindal 2012)
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To: Exton1

Not only do they lie, but this year many many people are refusing to respond, just like in the polling. This is something the pollsters do not know how to take into account. There are huge numbers of people refusing to respond.

Me, I’m in CA so it’s pretty much Obama, but I am not listening to a THING on TV, it will be off, all Election day, until our polls close here. I suggest to anyone who has polls open later than the east coast that they DO NOT listen to anything until their polls close. The MSM will do ANYTHING to suppress any votes for McCain/Palin. So, I am requesting that no one in other time zones turn on anything until their own polls close! That’s hard, but think of how long and hard Sarah and John have campaigned in the last weeks and grit your teeth and don’t reach for the TV or Radio remote


13 posted on 11/02/2008 10:28:38 PM PST by Ruth C (!!!! Get off the back of your lap and VOTE !!!!)
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To: T Lady

14 posted on 11/02/2008 10:31:40 PM PST by Lisa_from Buckeye Country ("Al I ever really needed to know I learned on the basketball court."...Sarah.... and my daughter)
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To: Lisa_from Buckeye Country
To photo shop McCain's face on Truman's...

Priceless!

15 posted on 11/02/2008 10:35:06 PM PST by T Lady (Palin-Jindal 2012)
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To: Exton1
Help save America, find out why it is a very, very bad idea to let Barack Hussein Obama become the next President of the United States, because we will all suffer the consequences: The Obama Disaster.com
16 posted on 11/02/2008 10:43:12 PM PST by Stayfree (The Obama Disaster.com has all the latest reasons why Obama shouldn't be President!)
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To: Lisa_from Buckeye Country

That’s another picture I hope to see Wednesday morning......McCain’s this time. I’m sick of pundits and the lamestreams telling us it’s a foregone conclusion that Barf Obami will win. I wonder if all this doom and gloom is engineered to keep people away from the polls?


17 posted on 11/02/2008 10:45:10 PM PST by Dawgreg (Happiness is not having what you want, but wanting what you have.)
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To: T Lady

No, I don’t think Obama or the media would be too crazy about you. They have their agenda, and you don’t fit into it because you do your own thing.


18 posted on 11/02/2008 10:46:11 PM PST by ForbesFan
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To: ForbesFan
You got it...I refuse to dance to the Marxist Music or pay the Pretty Boy Pied Piper.
19 posted on 11/02/2008 10:47:52 PM PST by T Lady (Palin-Jindal 2012)
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To: HerrBlucher

“The media makes much of the huge crowds which turn out to see Obama’s speeches. What they seem to be missing is that Palin and McCain are making far more appearances between them, seeing far more of the voting public on a more direct level, and turning out enthusiastic crowds of 25,000 and more at every one of these appearances, often in states where, if Obama is actually doing as well as the experts claim, they ought to be getting the cold shoulder.”

This will be a Palin-McCain WIN folks.


20 posted on 11/02/2008 10:50:26 PM PST by txzman (Jer 23:29)
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To: Exton1

I think that the MSM will cry racism if McCain wins. But if Obama wins, you will hear them say how wonderful it is and this country will heal and we will all unite together as the Messiah promised. They will see this as a victory over conservatism and the Media will say that its time for the Republican party to become more moderate because being taken over by the right didn’t help them win an election. Hopefully this country will still be recognizable. Interesting that there is no one in the media complaining about how the hard left has taken over the democrat party.

One person at my work who is a Liberal Democrat said that he hopes that Obama puts Republicans in his cabinet if he wins because he said that the change he was talking about and he said that he was going to transcend politics and unite us and that if he didn’t then he was going to be a one-term president. Sadly, this person is close to retirement so I’m not sure if he’s going to be affected by the soaring unemployment that’s going to come. If Obama does win 2012 better not have another Bush decide to run. I have enough of the Bush’s. Bush was great on Judges and the War on Terror, but he has not been a conservative on much of the other issues.

I voted already for McCain/Palin and I hope that Americans decide to go with the known rather than the unknown. I live in CA and I have seen more McCain/Palin signs than Obama signs but I live in a conservative part of the state. Hope that means something!


21 posted on 11/02/2008 10:50:55 PM PST by ripcasc
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To: Norman Bates

LS mentioned some exit poll data showing Obama winning early voting in Florida by 7.5% The thing is, Kerry won early voting by 16% and lost Florida by 5%.


22 posted on 11/02/2008 10:53:17 PM PST by Mr. Silverback (*******It's not conservative to accept an inept Commander-in-Chief in a time of war. Back Mac.******)
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To: Dawgreg

Hate to tell you this but THOUSANDS have already gone to the polls here in Ohio. I had no idea until a couple weeks ago that you could vote early, unless it was by absentee vote. They are bussing them in, in droves here in Columbus, and even serving them pizza and bottled water. I posted a thread on it, and contacted my local GOP headquarters.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2123016/posts


23 posted on 11/02/2008 10:55:50 PM PST by Lisa_from Buckeye Country ("Al I ever really needed to know I learned on the basketball court."...Sarah.... and my daughter)
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To: Emperor Palpatine

24 posted on 11/02/2008 10:56:25 PM PST by DoughtyOne (Our nation is uncomfortably close to having B.O. We need to use a Republican roll on by 11/04.)
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To: Emperor Palpatine

BTW, I like it. Good one...


25 posted on 11/02/2008 10:56:43 PM PST by DoughtyOne (Our nation is uncomfortably close to having B.O. We need to use a Republican roll on by 11/04.)
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To: Exton1
Republicans think people are smart, while Democrats know people are stupid.

That alone explains the rise of Barack Hussein Obama.

The only question is, are people really this stupid? We will know the answer to that question in 48 hours. We all know people are uninformed, and the duplicity of the Media is obvious to those who are intellectually honest.

26 posted on 11/02/2008 11:01:59 PM PST by Kickass Conservative (Democracy, two wolves and one sheep deciding what's for dinner.)
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To: Exton1

I turned on msnbc for a laugh and huckabee was on AGAIN, left the room for a minute and returned to find my 8 year old was upset.

I asked what was wrong. He said Obama won the election.

off went msnbc.


27 posted on 11/02/2008 11:40:07 PM PST by proudtobeanamerican1 (God Bless Sarah, John, their families and the conservative voters)
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To: Exton1
The third mistake is the chronic Democratic assumption that voters are stupid and uninformed.

That's not a mistake - these are the type of voters the Democrats court. Voters who can't figure out how to mark a butterfly ballot for instance.....

28 posted on 11/02/2008 11:43:45 PM PST by Rummyfan (Iraq: it's not about Iraq anymore, it's about the USA!)
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To: Lisa_from Buckeye Country

> They are bussing them in, in droves here in Columbus, and even serving them pizza and bottled water.

Lisa, Lisa, Lisa... you don’t understand: “Stealing” the election is only wrong if the Republicans do it first.


29 posted on 11/03/2008 12:34:34 AM PST by DieHard the Hunter (Is mise an ceann-cinnidh. Cha ghéill mi do dhuine. Fàg am bealach.)
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To: snarkytart; Exton1
I believe this is happening. The media and the DC/NYC insiders love the idea of Obama so much, they refuse to step back and look at reality.

I believe it also serves their objective towards justifying leftist rioting that will inevitably occur should "the one" lose the election.

30 posted on 11/03/2008 2:52:06 AM PST by Caipirabob (Communists... Socialists... Democrats...Traitors... Who can tell the difference?)
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To: T Lady

The Pied Piper image dead on. With his trailing ‘Rats. . .


31 posted on 11/03/2008 4:41:47 AM PST by doberville
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To: Lisa_from Buckeye Country

What I meant was those who prefer to wait until voting day to vote. That’s so typical what’s happening with the busing and “favors”, reminds me of Clintoon goin’ down to Nawlins and pull Mary Landreiu’s bacon outta the fire a few years ago when she almost lost her Senate seat.


32 posted on 11/03/2008 4:50:28 AM PST by Dawgreg (Happiness is not having what you want, but wanting what you have.)
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