Posted on 10/26/2008 2:38:00 PM PDT by abb
For years, it's been one of those speculative staple questions of consumer-media research: If you could only keep one thing out of a list that included your phone, your TV or your computer and internet connection, what would it be?
But with the recession looming, it's no longer such an academic question. Agencies, media, telecoms and other marketers are pondering the implications of an impending shakeout where, after years of piling on one subscription fee after another, consumers take a harder look at what they really need.
Their decisions in what look to be lean years ahead could play a substantial role in reshaping almost every aspect of marketing -- from determining whether DVRs or streaming video win the battle for the eyeballs of time-shifters to making it harder than ever for marketers to survey consumers by snipping the landlines by which much of survey research tenuously dangles.
For years, $200 has been a major resistance point for buying new entertainment or telecommunications hardware, said David Poltrack, exec VP-research and planning for CBS, at the Association of National Advertisers annual conference earlier this month. Now, media, telecommunications and distribution companies are bumping up against a similar threshold in monthly subscription fees, he said.
"Landline, cellphone, television and internet -- it's starting to get around $200," he said. "And the question becomes: What are you going to cut to keep it manageable?"
One for another "We're seeing a lot of people cut the cord and go to their mobile phone as their primary unit, so we're seeing some decent growth in that side of the business," said John Harrobin, senior VP-marketing and digital media for Verizon, at the ANA. "But 30% of the business we have is traditional landline business, so we're getting offsetting effects."
Meanwhile, he said, Verizon has continued to see increases in broadband penetration as telecommuting has grown in response to rising gas prices.
By most accounts, the ultimate winner could be the computer -- and by extension the broadband connection -- which can provide access to streaming video, paid content, telecommunications services and web versions of print publications alike.
WPP Group's Ogilvy & Mather and Mindshare teamed up with Microsoft recently on an extensive ethnographic and survey research project to profile "digital divas" -- that 16% of women who are most wired, highly viral and increasingly important to package-goods marketers -- and came up with a finding that might seem surprising. The women named laptop computers over TV or even mobile phone as their device of choice.
That might seem relatively middlebrow for the digital elite, but the decision makes perfect sense, said Debbie Solomon, group research director of MindShare, because a laptop with a broadband connection can substitute for almost everything else.
Broadening dependence Five years ago, when researchers surveyed digitally savvy youth, they were getting the same answer to the "what could you least live without" question, said Rishad Tobaccowala, CEO of Denuo and chief innovation officer of Publicis Groupe Media. "Now, it's moving to the broader population," he said.
"My sense is that you're going to see people paying a lot for one thing," Mr. Tobaccowala said. "The lifeline to the world is a fast internet connection and as much as I can get free from that internet connection."
Losers in the in recession-fueled, technology-paring equation, he said, will be landlines, cable service beyond basic cable and even more-expensive mobile packages.
Other losers, he said, include Blu-ray DVD players and Slingboxes, which become less relevant when consumers rely more on their broadband connections for TV shows or other video. But he said a potential winner will be the first company to develop a seamless way of moving internet content to TV screens.
Mr. Tobaccowala said recession also could slow or halt the erosion of audiences from free, advertiser-supported media to paid entertainment content, which he said is an ultimately untenable trend anyway, as the endgame implies each household ultimately paying at least $1,000 annually for content it once consumed free.
"Network evening newscasts will go dark after the '08 elections and their news divisions disbanded."
Walter Abbott, (b. 1950), Media observer and commentator
ping
Turns out this guy saw the future. Not so much the movies, but on newspapers he was spot on.
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,1860821,00.asp
Newspapers and Movies—Both Fading Fast
09.19.05
Also, has anyone come up with cell phones that sound as good as landline phones?
Most of my former TV time is spent on the computer.
But, wait, it gets even worse for cable. I wanted to watch a college football game yesterday. Choice of cable or my 30 year old rabbit ears hooked to a digital converter that cost me a net of $20. The rabbit ears provided a far superior picture on my 17 year old TV.
What else do I want from cable? Weather? better coverage and no ads on the computer. News - computer wins again. Entertainment - slight edge to cable, but I can block pop-up ads on my computer, and can’t on the TV. So call it a wash.
Rural homeowners will keep landlines, no?
Not that I would watch this show online or on network TV, this article from last week was instructive.
http://blog.wired.com/underwire/2008/10/hulu-airs-seaso.html
Hulu Airs Season Premiere of 30 Rock a Week Early
I thought about this issue this week. I am thinking about cutting my cable because all it is is garbage. Every channel.
I hope most Americans start to see they have a choice and that they don’t need to give all the media conglomerates power by continuing to accept the garbage we have on cable and satellite.
What’s worth watching on TV? The last series I liked was 24, pure escapism, then it went all mussie soft. Turned it off for good. The wife liked American Idol, until she figured out the voting was rigged. You can’t even watch a football game without the liberal crap.
Who wants to sit around an watch a bunch of soft-shelled Republicans ponder how smart they think they are.
I now have the DVD checkout habit ... Good stuff at the local library and free. Going to set my sights on a new blu-ray player for Black Friday.
I shouldn’t want this so much cause it means I will have a fifty time less chance to get a job, but I can’t stand most of the MSM.
Then again this gives me the chance to start my own.... :D.
Someday soon - I’ll say within the next 5 to 10 years - just about all content ever produced will be available on demand. Movies, TV shows, newscasts, documentaries. Search for it, click on it and watch it on your widescreen.
Just about the only “appointment viewing” that can economically survive will be sporting events.
I agree, sports only, nothing else will survive — And I coach that with if they get the politics out of the stupid booth. People want in on the action, not listen to a bunch of has beens tell us how smart they used to be.
There is no longer any reason with the high speeds of the Internet. Did you see Comcast bumped up to equal the Verizon fiber to the door speeds just last week? 50mps download ... That’s going to leave a mark.
Cell phones, no more contract for me, it’s all pay as you go el cheapo. That was wasting another $100 a month.
The wife got a magic jack, if you haven’t you should have it. Free long distance, $40 a year.
Now you're cooking with gas, Doc. Once you start watching the good old stuff from back when they could write a script, today's stuff is exposed as the trash it is.
What’s a magic jack?
My husband and I have decided that if Obama wins, we’re getting rid of the cable. Even Fox is on the Obama wagon...I’ll go to freerepublic, you tube and listen to Rush.
I sure hope so. Here in mtns and the valleys, you can’t use cell phones.
Yes, much is wireless. And that is great for those on the go. But the future is all about who controls the pipe. And nothing beats FIOS/fiber to the home. The cable companies can try but they are fighting a losing battle.
“I thought about this issue this week. I am thinking about cutting my cable because all it is is garbage. Every channel.”
I just did about 30 months of the TV thing, I bought a nice TV, payed a large payment for Direct TV and then gave it all up two weeks ago.
The TV experience is almost pure habit, Hollywood is an incredibly incompetent industry with a very low grade product and I just couldn’t continue to act like it worked for me.
Check out Netflix - $10 a month for as many singles as you can order - one at a time. Lots of Golden Oldies as well as the new crap. Mail turn around is great. I'm 80 miles from Las Vegas and average 8-9 discs a month. Watch 'em one night, send 'em back the next - or, keep 'em as long as you want.
Great service because the guy who thought up the concept runs it. Will probably change when he sells out and the Bottom-Line-Is-God boys take over. Until then, enjoy first rate service.
Probably yes, depending on the circumstances. I live so far out in the boonies that only one cell company's phones work at my house, dsl/high speed is not offered at all, and satellite internet is much too expensive for the poor reviews it gets.
We have satellite tv, but if it rains hard we have nothing. I bought one of the digital converter boxes with a coupon, just in case I get so fed up with satellite tv that I tune them out!
Having a landline in this rural area is a necessity for me.
Our local library has a a huge DVD collection, including all the most recent releases. As soon as the movie hits the rent stores, it shows on the library card catalog. You can order most any movie for free, it may take a few days to transfer in.
We watched Iron Man the day it showed in the stores. Not too hot actually ... :-(
Hard to beat free, and you get six check out videos at a time.
If I go with a blu ray player, I may go netflix for the BDs
Since I've been studying this phenomenon over the past three years, I've run across this concept several times. 'Must see TV' or 'appointment viewing' or some such. It seems once viewers realize they can watch something at their convenience via DVR or computer, a lot of stuff never gets watched at all. You know this sends chills down the backs of the TV studio suits.
You are leading by example. We might do the same thing.
I frequently watch via computer/internet a program I missed on TV. More broadcasters are putting their programs online.
For example, if the dvd fails or weather broadcasts interrupt local programming, I can watch them later via computer. (I now have my laptop on wireless and a video cable to my main TV. So, I can actually watch the internet feed on by main TV screen.)
Hulu.com
Veoh.com
Fancast.com
AOL.Com In2TV
Those are several sites that have old and new tv programs and some movies online.
I did this at my home. Cut the landlines down to one and put two lines on Virgin Mobile.
Virgin definitely had the best deal going on low use cell. Few fees, and only $20 every 3 months. Nice, free LG phone.
Count on an extra $20 to port a number over though, and remember that your old phone number will be DOWN the day that you port it, until it reconnects on your cell up to 2wks later.
Still, they are the cheapest around.
Is the circulation down for the newspapers in Europe? Where the papers have a position on the left or right?
Unlike here in the US where all the reporters are in the middle of the road.
The only thing in the middle of the road, are dead critters!
Something tells me, I am going to cut the cord on these awful TV Channels ... There is nothing but crap on anymore, ever since they started cluttering up the History Channel and the Discovery Channel with the global warming claptrap.
I don’t watch much TV either but what I do watch is 24, come hell or high water. I’m very much looking forward to the 2 hour prequel Nov. 23 (and Season 7 starting in January) for it’s been a long, long, long time since 24 was on.
Over a year ago I made the decision to terminate my landline and my dsl. I went with my broadband cell service and a cellphone only. That cut my expenses in half for communications. I still have my Directv but I probably wouldn’t miss that if one day it were gone. Internet is slower than dsl but I had already adjusted and since I’m not home a lot, just having that connection is worth it all, both phone and internet connectivity.
“It seems once viewers realize they can watch something at their convenience via DVR or computer, a lot of stuff never gets watched at all.”
That is true.
Recording lets them respond to the impulse to watch that important or entertaining show but the more they delete and record over the unwatched material painlessly, the closer they come to realizing how meaningless it all is.
As a result of their eager, ongoing and complete violation of the Public Trust, our own media is as great a threat to this country, as ANY other enemy we face.
Cancel your cable. I did, years ago.
Link is shown on this thread. I have business at home. HATE AT&T and make a lot of LD non-800 calls. Got a Magic Jack about 30 days ago. It’s awesome. Eliminated one business line and my residential landline - YEAH!
Pretty hard to get water, sewage and natural gas without “umbilical cords.” LOL!
Big Telecom will get around all this with bandwidth throttling, so that consumers can’t watch video over their broadband connections and cancel cable TV service. They are already starting this. You’ll have to pay a premium to get increased bandwidth.
Interesting!
I agree.
I’m not sure where you’re from but every winter we run without commercial electricity for a few days up to a couple weeks at a time. We have a well, elevated water storage tank, a generator and a septic tank. My Internet is broadband and it my computer, TV, and refrigerator run well off a battery bank and an inverter. My water heater and oven/stove are propane so we even have hot water and can cook anything you can. Our generator is good sized and runs off of propane and is plumbed into our large tank. I run the generator a couple hours a day to charge the battery pack and everything runs fine. I’m looking into installing a dozen or so solar panels and using those for the initial, (first choice) charge on the batteries. It cost a bit more to keep this system going than normal electrical service but we don’t so without a single thing when the power is out. I guess independence and self-sufficiency is a country or mountain thing.
“Within the next 20 years all new construction will be mandated to be independent of all umbilical cords.”
If that becomes a reality i’m glad i’ll be dead by then or so close to it I couldn’t give a damn!
Any and all of the major cell phone networks.
Also, has anyone come up with cell phones that sound as good as landline phones?
Probably not, but who wants to talk to telemarketers anyway?
No land line since 2001.
Not to mention reliability.
If consumers perceive they have communication redundancy, and if we go to a recession, then some will make cost saving changes to eliminate redundancy. To some, reliability and quality of service will continue to be important. To others, mobility and flexibility will be the driving factors.
This, of course, will all be influenced by tax policy and regulation policies. Those taxed services that are under the guise of a regulatory agency will operate at a severe disadvantage.
No they won't.
I can guarantee that if presently untaxed alternatives reach a critical point, they WILL be taxed, but what's worse, it will be possible for the government to turn all the conduits on --- or off, and the user will be at the mercy of bureaucrats.
You have a point. Then additional industries will go down the tubes.
...it will be possible for the government to turn all the conduits on --- or off, and the user will be at the mercy of bureaucrats.
Obama 24/7 on my TV. Aaaaaarrrrggghhhhh!
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