Posted on 10/22/2008 9:21:31 AM PDT by mn-bush-man
It must be noted that a 1 point swing from Democrat to Republican results in a TWO point swing in the polling number of the leader!
The state polls have been skewed by weighting as well. See my earlier post showing what the weighting was in 2004, which is a good baseline to adjust the propaganda polls you see on a daily basis. Virginia is probably the most obiously biased in terms of the huge disparity in the polls with what actually happened in 2004, which was 4% more Reps than Dems. Most of these polls have been based on Dems outnumbering Reps by 8-13%, which is not going ot happen. other states have been improperly weighted as well.
The state polls have been skewed by weighting as well. See my earlier post showing what the weighting was in 2004, which is a good baseline to adjust the propaganda polls you see on a daily basis. Virginia is probably the most obiously biased in terms of the huge disparity in the polls with what actually happened in 2004, which was 4% more Reps than Dems. Most of these polls have been based on Dems outnumbering Reps by 8-13%, which is not going ot happen. other states have been improperly weighted as well.
There is nothing sinister here. Ras collects new data on voter party affiliation every month to keep it current.
It's similar to measuring and cutting two 8” boards from a single piece. If you start from one end and measure 8”, make your mark, then measure your second mark at 16”, and proceed to make your cuts, I GUARANTEE you won't end up with two 8” boards. Even more so if you happened to be 1/8” or 1/4” inch off from your starting point.
Now if you INTENTIONALLY wanted to end up with boards that were incorrect, you could alter your beginning measuring point to whatever degree would assure your desired outcome.
Working the numbers:
39 D vs. 33 R - Operation Chaos +1 R -1 D
38 D vs 34 R - Acorn (Ohio) (if we stop fakes) +2 R - 2 D
36 D vs 36 R - Bradley effect (Prez +2 R -2 D other zero)
34 D vs 38 R - lose 5 seats in House 3 in Senate and hold White House - if we can stop Acorn -
else tossup for Prez lose 18 in House and 5 in Senators
but Obama/Acorn are Stalinesque - so stay to count the votes!
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