Posted on 10/18/2008 6:32:49 AM PDT by hoosiermama
Why the polls are incorrect: Is Mc Cain actually in the lead? (Vanity)
First let me apologize to all of you who are tired of the vanities, but felt we needed this conversation.
It occurred to me last evening while watching Laura on O’Reilly. She stated it really upset her that there were so many more democrats registered then Republicans.
One of those “”A-HA!” moments hit me. I work the polls in one of the larger districts in our area. Last fall many of my republican friends and neighbors (Approximately 10% that I was aware of)) requested “D” ballots. Several even winked or smiled knowingly. They were part of Operation Chaos.
Listening to Mary Matelin the other evening explaining that the polls use a percentage of registered voters to determine the percentage of party members to canvas. I imagine in Indiana that number is influenced by the actual ballot requested in the Primary. Is Operation Chaos still doing it’s thing?
BTW I was polled this week. It occurred to me and I dutifully reported to the poller that several of my “D” neighbors were supporting Mc Cain. (I suppose according to Murpha we would be considered a “racist” community)
My questions for fellow freepers: How much influence did the OC movement have on the vote in your state? Is it more influential than the Bradley affect? Rush listeners, which states are you in and how many of them voted heavily for Hillary? Are the potential voters not only enough for McCain to win, but win in a landslide?
Yes, McCain is winning and he will win.
How many of those newly-registered Democrat voters are ACORN frauds? Dead people, second graders, Disney characters?
Yes, he has been in the lead since Palin was announced, and maybe even before. The polls are complete garbage.
If Repubs registered as RATS for Operation Chaos in the primary, when would they switch back? Election day?
In my opinion, the pollers are overestimating the % of Democrats this year, I just don't know by how much. In my gut, I DO think the Dems will outvote the Republicans by several percent, but not quite as high as the pollsters think. But don't kid yourselves, McCain is still probably significantly behind, and it will be a small miracle if he wins. It is VERY doable though.
Excellent analysis. Let me just say that there is no way Obama is going to win Hillary’s 18 million voters. I’d guess half of them voted for Hillary because they saw her as the lesser of two evils.
Yeah, I’m not sure the pollsters are being that methodical about it. Some of these polls just have large party ID differentials, most likely to provide a certain favorable result to a certain favored candidate.
Good point, here in Oregon the paper was talking 100K that switched from R to D and you knew it was operation chaos. That said, the pollsters are using mixes that have no relation to past voting patterns and yes McCain is very likely ahead and moving farther.
Pray for W, McCuda and Our Troops
I’ve been saying this for a while. Two facotrs have skewed the poll weights, both related to over-registration on donks. One is Operation Chaos. The other is ACORN. In fact, I believe this is one of the main goals of all the fraudulent voter registrations by ACORN - to skew the polls so an Obamanation win seems inevitable, getting McCain voters to stay home, and thereby creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.
How many poll respondents are lying about being registered just so they can say they are supporting Obama?
There are probably a lot of ineligible voters being polled.
Here in TX, not only did lots of us cross over and vote for Hillary, we went to the local caucuses that night.
Man what a field trip.
Those people can’t even count heads for totals and hands for votes in their own meetings.
Your friends are like a few of my family members who live in a heavily blue congressional district. The voting decision for the congressdonkey er congressperson is always in the primary. They figure that this way they are participating in the election process. They also get the pleasure of voting against the donkey du jour twice.
Makes sense to me.
I think four factors will come into play on Nov 4 that may prove the polls off by quite a bit:
1) the “Bradley Effect”
2) Dem registration numbers due to Op Chaos
3) Republicans hate the Leftist Media scum so much, I hear a much higher % of people than normal are hanging up on pollsters — most of those are probably McCain voters.
4) I think a greater than usual number of people are lying to pollsters due to pure hatred of the Obama media. If they called me, I would either hang up on them or lie to them.
No a Powell endorsement of Obama on Sunday will effectively end McCain’s campaign /sarc
It’s still an extremely close race, but it doesn’t look good for Mac.
And yes, Dems are oversampled, but for the simple reason there are more dems than Republicans.
The local paper has reported that people in the Scranton-Wilkes Barre area were continuing to register as D in big numbers long after the primary. The paper is a Dem party rag however. (The paper who's reporter was the only person to hear "kill him" at the Palin rally in Scranton.)
I think the shift to D is partly explained by Op Chaos, partly ACORN and the like, but also there is still a lot of anger blaming Republicans and esp W for the mess were in even before it was a mess.
People have been complaining about the economy even when it was really good because the MSM and dems had them convinced it was bad even when it wasn't.
Are the KY and NC polls showing McConnell and Dole in trouble wrong too?
Colon Bowel?
MCCain is probably ahead. 5 friends of mine who have voted d there whole life are not voting for odumbo and they live in bucks county pa. How many others are out there? Just ask puma
ssssshhhhhhhh we aren’t supposed to tell anyone that the polls are so completely wrong until after the election, or else acorn will have to double up their vote fraud....
The PUMAs have their own operation chaos going - telling the pollsters they are voting Obama.
I believe that C. Powell was an “affirmative action” pick in 1989, wasn’t he?
I have a feeling ALOT of women for Hillary are gonna see this ACORN fraud and think on Nov. 4th they COULD have been voting for Hill if not for bambi and vote for McCain.
You don’t have to switch back to vote. I am sure that many Reps voted in the Dem primaries because the Dem primary was fought tooth and nail in every state. In VA, there is no registration by party. I voted in the Rep primary, but my wife and daughter voted in the Dem primary to vote against Hillary. They will be voting straight GOP in the general election.
It ia also true that the GOP primary finished early, with little excitement. The Democrats when on and on with lots of interest. How many switched registration (not necessarily Limbaugh fans) to participate in the “real” race of Clinton v. Obama?
One way to check for this, would be to see if the later primary states had a higher shift to Democrat registrations from those back in February.
I'm suspecting that many who participated in OC never actually thought this far ahead, nor did they anticipate that professional pollsters would adjust their sampling proportions to reflect apparent registration levels among the participating parties. So, the re-registration involved in OC has now had the effect of obscuring whether or not Obama or McCain is leading according to current opinion.
So we got a lot more Chaos than we expected. I'm not sure that's actually a good thing.
I have no clue about switching because I’ve never, ever done it.
Gee, I wonder who started the Powell rumor? Well I am officially starting a new Powell rumor. Rumor has it that Powell MAY announce his support for McCain tomorrow.
“Yeah, I’m not sure the pollsters are being that methodical about it.”
There was another article floating around here a few days ago about the type of person doing the grunt work - making the calls, asking the questions, for very little money.
They’re mostly young kids.
Young kids tend to be more liberal of course, and can taint the results with their own bias.
Powell did contribute to the McCain campaign—not Obama’s for whatever that is worth.
I am signed up for several online survey groups (Harris Poll, etc.) I have gotten several political surveys lately. As soon as I answer an online survey about which way I am voting (McCain), the survey immediately ends. No further questions. I have a feeling these online surveys are automatically slanted against Republican voters. Not that I am saying they are influencing the Gallup polls or other ones in the news, but I find that very interesting.
Great points, but there are even more GOP-to-Dem switches because of Op Chaos. There are lots of independents who registered Dem, and GOPers that don’t listen much to Rush, but wanted their vote to count. This would especially be true of NEW registered voters.
And I would agree that McCain voters are more likely to hang up on pollsters. Especially after Charles Gibson’s incredibly ignorant comment that “most polls” show Obama ahead by double digits.” (The man is on drugs, I promise you).
and I think that’ll backfire, more people will get out and vote than ever would have before the drive-bys became complicit with ACORN in stealing the election, I think it’s galvanizing ALOT of people to go vote against bambi.
If you go and talk to all the dems you know, you find a huge number are not voting or voting McCain. I have never seen this before. He only has 3 dems I know voting for him out of all the dems I know who voted Clinton, Gore and Kerry. He does not have his base in flyover country and is relying on the youth vote, and voter fraud to win. That is if he can make up the votes in his base he lost.
Those that need to rely on the youth vote are called losers.
Let me just say that there is no way Obama is going to win Hillary’s 18 million voters. I’d guess half of them voted for Hillary because they saw her as the lesser of two evils.
On a side note, while driving through the next town over from me which is heavily dem, there are *very few* Obama/Biden signs. However, in 2000 and 2004, the town was *full* of Gore/Lieberman and Kerry/Edwards signs. . .
In mine, you don't register with a particular party unless you vote in the party's primary. It only prevents you from voting in ANOTHER party's primary.
Your party affiliation is of no consequence on Election Day. And you are free to vote in another party's primary (but again, not more than one) during the next election cycle.
Does anyone know what Caller ID says when a pollster calls? I never answer anything I don’t recognize. I’m sure many others do the same thing.
-—And yes, Dems are oversampled, but for the simple reason there are more dems than Republicans.
If you know anything about statistical sampling, you would know that your statement is self-contradictory.
“The PUMAs have their own operation chaos going - telling the pollsters they are voting Obama.”
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Yeah. Check out the http://www.hillaryclintonforum.net/discussion/
My guess is that at least 3-5 million of the Hillary voters will go with McCain over Obama.
Also, as a little anecdotal evidence, I have caller ID on my phone. I’ve been getting calls every day from a Baltimore area code. I never answer, assuming its a telemarketer. Yesterday I finally answered just to see which company. It was a polling company.
I have no proof, but my hunch is that part of the oversampling is due to this...do more conservatives have caller ID then libs? are they less likely to answer and not immediately hang up?
again, no proof. but I think the answer is yes.
Pray for W, McCuda and Our Troops
Amen.
I think republicans are more likely to ignore those calls because they have better things to do.
Libs love to b*tch and whine - more libs would love to receive that call - more repubs would love to ignore it.
I don’t know I haven’t looked at the internals, and of course, those are different situations. With OStalin, we have many factors to weigh.....oversampling, bradley effect, puma’s etc. If these polls are the same a few days before the election I will give them more credibility (but not much more), right now its all push poll all the time.
In any case, none of us can know for sure if the polls are correct until election day.
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