Early poll gives Kerry the edge in final debate

CNN ^ | 10-14-2004

[Chet 99]

TEMPE, Arizona (CNN) -- Sen. John Kerry appeared to gain more momentum heading toward November 2, easily beating President Bush in the third and final debate, a poll taken late Wednesday night suggests.

A CNN/USA Today/Gallup snap poll taken immediately after the presidential debate found that respondents gave a significant edge to Kerry over Bush, 52 percent to 39 percent.

The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

The numbers were similar to the results of a poll taken the night of the first debate September 30 in Miami, Florida. That night Kerry was favored by a 53 percent to 37 percent margin.

[Snappy1MarineMom]

All of the polls online had Kerry winning by 75-80% after
all of those debates!

[itsPatAmerican]

it’s true, Bush was not a strong debater. Didn’t matter in the end to most.

[ken21]

a push poll.

we push you stupid conservatives out of the voting booth!

/j

[AHerald]

Republicans don’t win debates. It’s the law.

[mikey_hates_everything]

Oh well, guess it doesn’t mean anything that Drudge has McCain up by 73 to 25. /s

[Maelstorm]

I didn’t think John McCain won the first two debates from a visceral standpoint but he did win this one. Not with a knock out but he put Obama’s tie in firmly in the paper shredder. Now McCain just has to push him all the way in. Joe the Plumber is going to be instrumental in shoving Obama and his big government big socialist allies into that shredder. The pundits are wrong this time. Obama is slightly ahead. Those that have written John McCain off were wrong once again. Obama and the Democrats are over stepping with glee. Murtha today stepped in it, Obama’s ACORN associations are starting to grow as the ACORN story grows and now Joe The Plumber is everywhere and it will continue to be a mainstay on the campaign trail. If I were McCain I’d start carrying a plunger with me on the campaign trail. I’d hold it up and say “Washington you are next!”. lol

[T. Buzzard Trueblood]

Sen. John Kerry appeared to gain more momentum heading toward November 2

Hah. CNN was trying not just to hand the debate to Kerry, but the election as well.

Folks, never trust the Enemedia!

[rtsimon]

This is good to see and I remember how it was back then. But...Was Bush outspent like it is now? Was Kerry in video games and staffing people all over the country in rural areas. Was the the media in the tank for Kerry like they are for Obama? Were people crying at the very sight of Kerry? Were kids singing songs for him? Everyone of those electoral projection maps i’ve seen show an impossible win for McCain. I just don’t see how we’re going to win this time. I know I am quite pessimistic about politics but all of the factors I mentioned before are just so overwhelming.

[SeafoodGumbo]

Hehehe, thanks for posting this!

[phs3]

The people you speak of would vote Satan if he was the dem pick

[Saab-driving Yuppie]

Let's remember, Bush actually ran a horrible campaign. Remeber the 527s, which were about 100:1 in favor of Kerry? Bush never responded to any attacks. His ads were totally unmemorable. I don't think he attacked Kerry very skillfully.

The Swift Boat Veterans ran the best ads and did the most to discredit Kerry.

The only thing the Bush campaign did better than the Kerry campaign was GOTV.

[LeonardFMason]

LOL. When was the last time a Republican ever won a debate? Remember the MSM template. Debates just give them a chance to promote their favorite Democrat. Who expected the MSM to say McCain won?

[woofie]

It’s the law.

State or Federal?

[Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus]

And this time around, we are choosing President Kerry’s successor....

[rtsimon]

yeah I remember all the Swift Boat stuff. But do we have that this time in your opinion? Is the Ayers and ACORN connection ads our swift boat ads this time? You have to remember that Kerry had no style and was the poster boy for elitism. And do you remember those hunting pics?

[KoRn]

Kerry won all 3 debates. Bush almost won the first won, but I believe his debate prep was only good for 30 minutes of debating. As a matter of fact, Bush had a fair lead before the first debate. After the first debate, bush was tied at best or losing in the polls until election day.

[HawaiianGecko]

I keep hearing this but the actual polls don't seem to agree.  CNN/USA never had Kerry up 13% that I can see.

RealClearPolitics Poll Average^SM
3-Way Race: Bush/Cheney vs Kerry/Edwards vs Nader/Camejo
Send This Page to a Friend | Graph: RCP Historical Poll Average

Poll	Date	Bush/ Cheney	Kerry/ Edwards	Nader/ Camejo	Spread
RCP Average	FINAL	50.0%	48.5%	1.0%	Bush +1.5
RCP Average	10/27 - 11/1	48.9%	47.4%	0.9%	Bush +1.5
Marist (1026 LV)	11/1	49%	50%	0%	Kerry +1
GW/Battleground (1000 LV)	10/31 - 11/1	50%	46%	0%	Bush +4
TIPP (1041 LV)	10/30 - 11/1	50.1%	48.0%	1.1%	Bush +2.1
CBS News (939 LV)	10/29 - 11/1	49%	47%	1%	Bush +2
Harris (1509 LV)	10/29 - 11/1	49%	48%	2%	Bush +1
FOX News (1200 LV)	10/30 - 10/31	46%	48%	1%	Kerry +2
Reuters/Zogby (1208 LV)	10/29 - 10/31	48%	47%	1%	Bush +1
CNN/USA/Gallup(1573 LV)*	10/29 - 10/31	49%	49%	1%	TIE
NBC/WSJ (1014 LV)	10/29 - 10/31	48%	47%	1%	Bush +1
ABC/Wash Post (2904 LV)**	10/28 - 10/31	49%	48%	0%	Bush +1
ARG (1258 LV)	10/28 - 10/30	48%	48%	1%	TIE
CBS/NY Times (643 LV)	10/28 - 10/30	49%	46%	1%	Bush +3
Pew Research (1925 LV)	10/27 - 10/30	51%	48%	1%	Bush +3
Newsweek (882 LV)	10/27 - 10/29	50%	44%	1%	Bush +6
GW/Battleground (1000 LV)	10/25 - 10/28	51%	46%	0%	Bush +5
ICR (741 LV)	10/22 - 10/26	48%	45%	2%	Bush +3
CNN/USAT/Gallup (1195 LV)	10/22 - 10/24	51%	46%	1%	Bush +5
Los Angeles Times (881 LV)	10/21 - 10/24	48%	48%	1%	TIE
Newsweek (880 LV)	10/21 - 10/22	48%	46%	1%	Bush +2
Time (803 LV)	10/19 - 10/21	51%	46%	2%	Bush +5
GW/Battleground (1000 LV)	10/18 - 10/21	49%	45%	1%	Bush +4
AP-Ipsos (976 LV)	10/18 - 10/20	46%	49%	2%	Kerry +3
Marist (772 LV w/leaners)	10/17 - 10/19	49%	48%	1%	Bush +1
FOX News (1000 LV)	10/17 - 10/18	49%	42%	2%	Bush +7
Pew Research (1070 LV)	10/15 - 10/19	47%	47%	1%	TIE
ABC/Wash Post* (1237 LV)	10/16 - 10/18	51%	46%	1%	Bush +5
NBC/WSJ (LV w/leaners)	10/16 - 10/18	48%	48%	1%	TIE
Harris (820 LV)***	10/14 - 10/17	49.5%	44.5%	1%	Bush +5
CBS/NY Times (678 LV)	10/14 - 10/17	47%	45%	2%	Bush +2
CNN/USAT/Gallup (788 LV)	10/14 - 10/16	52%	44%	1%	Bush +8
Time (865 LV w/leaners)	10/14 - 10/15	48%	47%	3%	Bush +1
Newsweek (880 LV)	10/14 - 10/15	50%	44%	1%	Bush +6
GW/Battleground (1000 LV)	10/11 - 10/14	49%	46%	0%	Bush +3
ABC/Wash Post* (1248 LV)	10/11 - 10/13	48%	48%	1%	TIE
Zogby (1223 LV)	10/9 - 10/11	45%	45%	2%	TIE
CBS News (760 LV)	10/9 - 10/11	48%	45%	2%	Bush +3
ICR (763 LV)	10/9 - 10/11	48%	43%	2%	Bush +5
CNN/USAT/Gallup (793 LV)	10/9 - 10/10	48%	49%	1%	Kerry +1
Time (886 LV w/leaners)	10/6 - 10/7	46%	45%	4%	Bush +1
GW/Battleground (1250 LV)	10/3 - 10/7	49%	46%	0%	Bush +3
AP/Ipsos (944 LV)	10/4 - 10/6	46%	50%	2%	Kerry +4
Marist (642 LV)	10/4 - 10/5	49%	46%	1%	Bush +3
Fox News (1000 LV)	10/3 - 10/4	47%	45%	1%	Bush +2
ICR (762 LV)	10/1 - 10/5	51%	45%	2%	Bush +6
ARG (800 LV)	10/2 - 10/4	46%	46%	2%	TIE
ABC News/WP (1169 LV)	10/1 - 10/3	51%	46%	1%	Bush +5
CBS News/NYT (561 LV)	10/1 - 10/3	47%	47%	1%	TIE
Zogby (1036 LV)	10/1 - 10/3	46%	43%	2%	Bush +3
Pew Research (801 LV)	10/1 - 10/3	49%	44%	2%	Bush +5
CNN/USAT/Gallup (772 LV)	10/1 - 10/3	49%	49%	1%	TIE
Newsweek (1013 RV)	9/30 - 10/2	45%	47%	2%	Kerry +2
SHU Poll Inst. (1003 LV)	9/27 - 10/2	48%	43%	2%	Bush +5
Battleground (1000 LV)	9/27 - 9/30	51%	44%	1%	Bush +7
LA Times (1100 LV)	9/25 - 9/28	51%	45%	2%	Bush +6
CNN/USAT/Gallup (758 LV)	9/24 - 9/26	52%	44%	3%	Bush +8
IBD/TIPP (649 LV)	9/22 - 9/27	45%	45%	2%	TIE
ABC News/WP (810 LV)	9/23 - 9/26	51%	45%	1%	Bush +6
Pew Research (948 RV)	9/22 - 9/26	48%	40%	2%	Bush +8
Time (877 LV)	9/21 - 9/23	48%	42%	5%	Bush +6
FOX News (1000 LV)	9/21 - 9/22	46%	42%	1%	Bush +4
Battleground (1000 LV)	9/20 - 9/23	50%	45%	0%	Bush +5
Marist (630 LV)	9/20 - 9/22	50%	44%	2%	Bush +6
CBS News (931 LV)	9/20 - 9/22	51%	42%	2%	Bush +9
AP/Ipsos (931 LV)	9/20 - 9/22	52%	45%	1%	Bush +7
Pew Research (989 RV)	9/17 - 9/21	45%	42%	3%	Bush +3
NBC News/WSJ (787 LV)	9/17 - 9/19	50%	46%	1%	Bush +4
Zogby (1066 LV)	9/17 - 9/19	46%	43%	1%	Bush +3
IBD/TIPP (650 LV)	9/14 - 9/18	45%	42%	2%	Bush +3
ARG (LV)	9/7 - 9/21	47%	46%	1%	Bush +1
CBS News (1048 RV)	9/12 - 9/16	50%	41%	3%	Bush +9
CNN/USAT/Gallup (767 LV)	9/13 - 9/15	54%	40%	3%	Bush +14
Battleground (1000 LV)	9/12 - 9/15	49%	45%	1%	Bush +4
Pew Research (725 LV)	9/11 - 9/14	47%	46%	1%	Bush +1
Harris (867 LV)	9/9 - 9/13	47%	48%	2%	Kerry +1
Newsweek (1003 RV)	9/9 - 9/10	49%	43%	2%	Bush +6
IBD/TIPP (674 LV)	9/7 - 9/12	46%	46%	3%	TIE
Zogby (1018 LV)	9/8 - 9/9	46%	42%	2%	Bush +4
Time (857 LV)	9/7 - 9/9	52%	41%	3%	Bush +11
AP/Ipsos (899 LV)	9/7 - 9/9	51%	46%	1%	Bush +5
FOX/Opin. Dyn. (1000 LV)	9/7 - 9/8	47%	43%	3%	Bush +4
ABC News/Wash Post (LV)	9/6 - 9/8	52%	43%	2%	Bush +9
Pew Research (745 LV)	9/8 - 9/10	54%	38%	2%	Bush +16
CBS News (909 RV)	9/6 - 9/8	49%	42%	1%	Bush +7
CNN/USAT/Gallup (778 LV)	9/3 - 9/5	52%	45%	1%	Bush +7
Newsweek (1,008 RV)	9/2 - 9/3	52%	41%	3%	Bush +11

 

[Saab-driving Yuppie]

So far, we don't have anything like the SwiftBoats. Ayers has probably run its course. ACORN might have some more legs. I do remember the hunting pics, though my belief is that, somehow, this actually helped Kerry in rural NEO, where he was "hunting" but that it ridiculed him elsewhere.

Joe the Plumber has a chance to personalize the McCain campaign.

[rtsimon]

Yeah the Joe the Plumber stuff is big but really what is the percentage of people like Joe the Plumber in this country? I bet it’s overwhelmingly low. People like getting free money in the mail. Couple that with the horrendous job of Bush in people’s eyes and it doesn’t look good. Although McCain did well trying to distance himself. I am still waiting breathlessly for a big October surprise of some sort.

In personally think the only way he can win is if he starts hammering home that the Dems will have complete control of the government. Pelosi and Reed need to become household names for corruption and high taxes and a Great Depression.

[PressurePoint]

Has it ever occurred to the MSM that there may be an inverse correlation between "winning a debate" and "winning an election"?

Could it be that the American people consider "good debater" to be synonymous with "good b-s'er?"

[rtsimon]

that’s devastating. It is completely reversed for this election. The only difference is how much further Obama is in all polls.

[TNCMAXQ]

You are right on many points. McCain being outspent by a huge margin worries me too. But I think the media were almost as bad 4 years ago as they are now. Kerry was a veteran so he had that going for him.

As far as the electoral map goes, yes it is discouraging now. All those polls from all those states would have to be wrong for McCain to win. But it is still possible something would turn the tide. In 1980 it was thought to be a very close race in FL, TX, and other states Reagan ended up winning handily. At this point in 2002 many analysts thought Republicans would lose more Senate seats but just in the final days things swung around and it turned out to be a good GOP year. I’m not saying I expect everything to break in our direction but I am trying to hold on to some hope knowing that there can be surprises, even at the last minute.

[rtsimon]

yeah I agree...A Lot can happen in 19 days. The whole thing that fears me is just the love affair people have with Obama. You don’t hear anything like this about McCain. I work in a bar on the weekends. You should see how much people admire Obama and all he has done is talk a good game and look good doing it.

I like you am holding out hope but man it is getting more depressing everyday. Thank god I am going away this weekend and getting a break from the depression..heh.

[DiogenesLaertius]

No, Kerry made a huge amount of tactical errors. In the last debate he mentioned Cheney’s lesbian daughter which most people thought was lacking in class.

In the last few days Obama showed up and I believe a weapons cache was found looted and Kerry ran nothing but attack ads on Bush’s policy in Iraq which brought the election to Bush’s home turf.

Kerry’s ground game was also all wrong with poor volunteers that were badly coordinated.

And Kerry did not have a fundraising advantage against Bush who was awash in Cash.

And Bush had an excellent campaign. He stayed on message extremely well. He was extremely likeable and his smirk was not menacing like McCain’s smile. And he was still riding the 9/11 90% approval wave at that point and the Economy was basically in recovery from July onward.

Obama has completely copied Bush tit for tat tactically, defining the message and being on the attack most of the time even with the lead.

McCain has been off-message ever since he selected Sarah Palin. He was trumpeting an experience message. Then he wanted to change to a reformer message and then when the economic collapse came he wanted a bipartisan message.

He has had the worse message discipline I’ve ever seen.

I’m hoping the RNC and Schmidt have something up their sleeves because its not looking good. I just hope to god we have at least 43 senate seats after this is over.

[TNCMAXQ]

True, Bush was in a much stronger position at this point 4 years ago. Plus he did not have to worry about states like CO, VA, MO, or even IN.

I do not concede anything but at this point it does not look good. The silver lining to the bad guys winning is that when things go downhill as they are bound to do, it will happen on their watch. As long as ACORN doesn’t control the election apparatus then 2010 and ‘12 should be good comeback years for the GOP.

Greta Van S. is now talking about 0bama’s whiny comments about being attacked by Fox News. He sounds ridiculous.