Posted on 10/12/2008 8:21:55 AM PDT by Clintonfatigued
Pennsylvania hasn’t voted Republican for president since 1988. Democrats have increased their registration numbers here by more than a half-million over the past year, and Barack Obama has a double-digit lead in the polls.
Yet John McCain's campaign continues to signal that it intends to contest the state and its 21 electoral votes to the end. It is a high-risk, high-return endeavor: Pennsylvania represents a costly gambit, one that siphons resources from must-win states such as Ohio and Florida, but a win here would enable McCain to lose a few other states that George W. Bush carried and still capture the White House.
So with 23 days until Election Day, the state finds itself at the epicenter of the presidential campaign, with both sides spending precious time and money trying to energize their respective bases and drive up their opponents’ negatives.
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
I really hope he gets Pennsylvania. Bush came closer to defeating Kerry there than he did to losing Ohio.
I am very impressed with Philip J. Berg. He’s no flake, not by a long shot.
I believe watching this video will cheer you and give you greater hope than anything we have seen so far. This is not a rumor of a RICO indictment; this a lawsuit in the courts right now that is just waiting for the judge to make a decision.
I urge you all to take the mere 10 minutes and 52 seconds it will take to view the video at the link below, and perhaps spread the link around.
This man is a true hero if he’s right.
The pleadings are here: http://tinyurl.com/4fq8lf or http://dockets.justia.com/docket/court-paedce/case_no-2:2008cv04083/case_id-281573/
The video is here: http://tinyurl.com/4fwsac or
http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/11/the-question-of-the-birth-certificate/#comment-6812
I am enormously encouraged.
So if you want to feel better, and more hopeful, watch it immediately.
If Berg is wrong, what is Obama really hiding, and who signed off on his qualifications to run for president? Somebody in this country must have — but who, and what are *they* hiding by remaining silent?
Berg is going to take this to the Supreme Court if necessary, particularly, I think, if this court looks like it’s going to delay rulings until after the election. I don’t know if there are any statutory time requirements for the pending rulings, but Berg is not going to lie down and give up at any point.
http://dockets.justia.com/docket/court-paedce/case_no-2:2008cv04083/case_id-281573/
http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/11/the-question-of-the-birth-certificate/#comment-6812
The NRA ads kicked in last week here in PA big time. Should make a dent.
A ‘northern strategy’ is probably best for McCain but it will be a hard fight here in PA.
Western and Northeastern PA are the battlegrounds for McCain to get votes so he can overcome Philadelphia’s track record of bloated turnout (funny votes?).
Hidden in the polling data is support for McCain. Its a good 5 to 10 percent more than the polls say.
I see the race as closer than the polls but it will be a coup if McCain pulls off a win in PA.
What about Michigan?
I am so sick of the Politico.
I was really impressed with it at first.
Its not risky, that state had one of the largest Bradley effects in the primaries. If you ever had a chance there now is the time.
I don’t know if it is risky or any more risky than any other strategy, but I do know that if McCain wins PA it is over or Obama.
Call it the “Nittaly Lions” effect.
areas with 2,000 people cast 2,400 votes for Kerry - but bring it up, and you're a racist!
Has The Politico commented yet on Obama’s play for Indiana that hasn’t voted for a dem for President since 1964?
After the poseur Obama said “Nittaly Lions” I would’ve thought that 95% of PA residents would have moved to the good side. How can such an idiot be taken so seriously? And it wasn’t just what he said, but how he said it—as if he knew exactly what he was talking about. He is so full of S*** it is unbelievable.
Hopefully Bill Clinton will call his friend Gov. Ed Rendell and tell him to turn off the PA vote fraud machine. ....just for this one election.
Hillary kicked Obamas butt here in the primarys. I can name five people in my department that won’t vote because she was cheated by Obama. Thats their words not mine.
McCain shouldn’t give up on PA but if it every comes down to a choice between Florida and Ohio or PA then of course he should invest the resources where they make the most sense. Right now it looks like McCain is starting to recover his leads in Florida and Ohio. Obama is +3 in the latest Rasmussen after being as high as +8 in some polls. I personally believe that if the election were head today McCain would win Florida narrowly.
The latest poll on Ohio shows McCain +2 and the highest Obama is showing is +5 in any poll in the last few days. McCain is clearly recovering his advantage and Obama will need a much larger lead to win there. McCain would win Ohio if the election were today. I think Colorado is probably narrowly Obama’s at this point. I think Nevada would probably go McCain but only very Narrowly. Missouri I believe has never really left the McCain column, Obama has has only in one poll ever hit +5 and that was back in July.
McCain would win Missouri soundly. Virginia is going to be a close race and Obama really is within striking distance of taking it. The GOP made a mistake in allow Mark Warner to ride so high so long as a stealth liberal. I have seen an erosion on the ground of Warners support among the GOP here in Central VA. Will it be enough by election day? Virginia is about turn out as is Colorado. If the Christian base can turn everyone out on election day McCain will take both states if they don’t then he will lose one or both of them.
I believe New Mexico is especially challenging. What McCain needs to tactfully do there as does Steve Pearce is find a wedge issue to shove between the Democrats and the heavily Hispanic population. I’d be targeting the heavily catholic population with gay marriage and pro life ads. I’d also be doing this in marginal Red States. I think a simple ad attacking the ACLU and Obama together showing a cross on a hill and then having it disappear. “The ACLU and Barack would have this go away”. Do the same for a picture of Jesus on the wall, a cross in the courtroom, a bible on the swearing in. Those are powerful images to Catholics and Christians. We need to target populations with VRM(Voter Relationship Management) McCain can not afford to go into the election without reminding people about the Courts about what the prospects of a Democrat controlled congress and Presidency would mean to voters.
In its early days Politico was fairly obviously partisan, then toned down for a while, but as the election nears it’s reverted to form. I don’t pay any attention to them any more, either.
I’m sorry to have to tell you, but Philip J. Berg is, indeed, a flake.
He’s a “9/11 Truther” who claims that 9/11 was an “inside job” orchestrated by Bush and Cheney.
Just because he’s transferred his hatred and obsession from Bush to Obama doesn’t make him any less of a nut. You folks are being played.
McCain has to go in there recognizing that the country wants a change of direction not a new driver.
Pennsylvania is in play, but as a life long resident, I know that one cannot bank on PA voters to make the right choices. Just think back to the recent election where the empty suit Casey beat the best Senator in Congress (Rick S.)
Many Pennsylvanians will vote Democratic no matter what the problems are. It is a family thing. Even a socialist, a vote fraud advocate, and friend of terrorists, and America haters will not make them change.
This is why McCain faces a tougher challenge than Obuttface. McCain has to run the table. Bammer needs to flip only one of those four and he's in. VA and CO look the most wobbly right now.
And if you believe those are all real voters, and they all intend to vote on election day, I have some ocean front property in Illinois for you...
“I’m sorry to have to tell you, but Philip J. Berg is, indeed, a flake.He’s a “9/11 Truther” who claims that 9/11 was an “inside job” orchestrated by Bush and Cheney.Just because he’s transferred his hatred and obsession from Bush to Obama doesn’t make him any less of a nut. You folks are being played.”
I agree w/ you but why is Obama fighting the suit and asking for delays instead of producing the birth certificate?
Yep Virginia and Colorado are both wobbly. I think Virginia will be fine. Ads are flying and we have a couple big rallies coming up. I anticipate that this up coming rally in Richmond will be the biggest yet.
The real question is....how many "bitter clingers" voted for John "Can I get me a huntin' license" Kerry in '04, but will not voter for Barry O in '08?
Added to that the voter fraud that is ramped, and we see it becoming the next Florida and Ohio.
This election is not over by a long shot.
The Clintons have MAJOR tentacles in Pennsylvania (Rendell et al.) If Senator Cankles wiggles her pinky to put the ixnay on stuffing the ballot boxes in Philly, McCain will win by 7%.
-ccm
I’m curious why Obama is still running Ad’s in Seattle, you would think thats a waste of cash.
I am in NOVA and Obama owns tv and radio. McCain is nowhere to be found...
McCain will not carry New Mexico.
I don’t think he will but he shouldn’t give up on it.
I see McCain all the time on TV in Central Virginia and I’ve been hearing McCain on the radio on WRVA all the time. I don’t know what channels you watch and listen to but I don’t even watch a lot of local tv and I haven’t been able to avoid the commercials for both candidates.
If there were ever a better time be a member. :-)
I would like to see a Pennsylvania poll with a realistic sample of Republicans, Democrats, and Independents. Most of the recent Pennsylvania samples I’ve seen have ridiculously oversampled Democrats, including the one in the poll that Politico is mentioning. Both sides are campaigning there, so one can easily infer that their internal polls show the state to be close.
Relatively few saw it and it was about a month ago anyway, an eternity in this election.
In the 2008 democrat Pennsylvania primaries, Hillary Clinton got 1.1 million White votes, I excluded the Republicans who voted for her. According to pro-Obama media polls there is at least 30% of Hillary Clinton voters who are going to vote for McCain. Let us be conservative and assume that 20% of her voters will be voting for McCain hence McCain will get around 220,000 from Hillary Clinton White democrat voters in Pennsylvania.
Let us assume that 80% of these voters had voted for Kerry in 2004 which make them around 180,000 voters. This means that Obama is a defict of 180,000 x 2 = 360,000 votes below Kerry numbers in 2004. Kerry only won Pennsylvania by 145,000 votes in 2004.
McCain/Palin strategy in Pennsylvania is not risky at all because the number above prove that it is very possible that McCain/Palin can win Pennsylvania.
Please see my post # 39 for some numbers breakdown.
A lot of people (myself included) will be getting their quarterly retirement account statements this coming week. Mine was down about 22% the quarter before this last one, and that didn't include the recent crash. I'm not going to open my statements (I'm depressed enough as it is). That won't change my vote, and I'm still going to the polls, but I wonder how many others will, and won't.
A lot of those were Operation Chaos voters but some were people who wanted to be a part of history.
Hillary won the state by about 10 points but she won the Northeast by something like 3 to 1. That's why she, Bill, and Biden are in Scranton today.
Most think Obama chose Biden for foreign policy but I think it was for PA. He's from Scranton which Hillary won by huge margins because of her Scranton roots (her father was born there).
For as hard as Obama is working for PA, I think his numbers must be shaky.
Which means McCain has a shot.
On tuesday Sarah will be at the same venue the Clintons & Biden are at today.
I had sort of high hopes for Politico, not that it wouldn’t be liberal, but it seemed at first to take pains to have both sides of an issue presented. Now that it is making its big launch, it just seems to have gone crazy with Leftiness.
Not a very good business model. It’s suddenly become nothing more than Slate and Huffington Post. Uh, been there, done that.
I thought Politico might offer something new.
The same goes for Ohio where you live.
I must have been introduced to the Politico in its “toned down” mode because I found it rather new and interesting.
Now it is shooting itself in the foot by simply mimicking Slate and Huffington Post and Salon.
All good points. To which I will add that in 2004, Dems had only a 2 point turnout advantage over Repubs. Yes, they may do slightly better than that in 2008, but how many of those additional Dems are Hillary voters who will vote for McCain?
According to the exit polls, Kerry carried only 85% of Democrats, while Bush carried only 89% of Republicans. I’m thinking that McCain will do better with both Republicans and Hillary Democrats than Bush did four years ago, and this in a state where Bush ended up losing by only 2 points and Obama performed very poorly in the primaries.
In sum, the state looks very competitive to me, and this is probably why both sides are still campaigning there.
Exactly right.
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