Posted on 10/11/2008 2:20:55 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
Barack Obama is now ahead in every state won by John Kerry four years ago, and New Jersey is no exception.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Jersey finds Obama attracting 50% of the vote while McCain earns just 42%.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
NJ is not in play. Repeat, NJ is not in play. That said, in a phoney Ras poll, 8% (really, probably about 4%) is pretty impressive.
Actually, I thought Obama would be leading be a lot more in New Jersey. This is not a spectacular showing for him. If McCain can make a comeback, winning New Jersey might be possible.
Uhhhhh Thats not that commanding a lead for such a leftist electorate. In fact Id be concerned if I were NObama
Uhhhhh Thats not that commanding a lead for such a leftist electorate. In fact Id be concerned if I were NObama
who took NJ in the primaries? Clinton or Obama? -and by how much?
I agree with your comments! Considering it is a Rasmussen poll, this lead is not very much. I would have expected a much larger lead.
If Dems are betting on Rasmussen for accurate state polls, they may have a rude awakening.
Hmm...in 2004, the breakdown by party ID in the Presidential election was D39, I31, I30 in New Jersey. That’s eight points. Obama’s lead in this poll is....8 points. Kerry actually defeated Bush in New Jersey by 7 points. Nationally, Bush won by 2.4 points.
This is the latest piece of evidence that tells me that, in fact, on a national level, if you assume turnout that will be similar to previous election cycles, McCain is in a much stronger position than what the polls currently suggest.
Only a single point better than Kerry, who won New Jersey by 7 points while losing nationally by 2.4 points.
And McCain hasn’t campaigned there AT ALL. Makes you wonder. McCain has been campaigning hard in WI, IA, MN, CO, OH (naturally), VA, will make a stop in NC, a little in FL. Very little in NV or MO. I take that to mean the McCain campaign sees those as safe. I think the stops in FL and OH are just to keep Obama spending money and time there.
McCain had better worry more about NC, VA, OH & FL instead of chasing the pipe dream of NJ.
so we’re supposed to believe he’s up 8 in NJ, but 11 nationally? yeah, okay!
What were the internals of this poll? How much of a Democrat over-count was there? If other polls they’ve been boosting the Democrat count by 8 - 10%, at least. So ... was Obama given an over-count of 45% Democrat, 35% Republican and 20% Independent?
I have seen Obama commercials on NYC broadcast stations (which, of course, take in northern NJ). He is spending money in the tri-state area for some reason I have yet to ascertain.
Joseph Stalin would lead George Washington in the Garbage State.
McCain is campaigning like a guy who is either up about 3-4 points in the polls or assumes he will be up about 3-4 points by election day. Either he needs to fire his private pollster or the entire public polling industry needs to stop oversampling Democrats. :)
And yet he's stagnant in New Jersey.
Mmmmm hmmmmm. That's believable.
If McCain is even close to Obama in New Jersey, he is going to win handily. Rasmussen is one of those pollsters who does weight by party ID, and he has been assuming that Democrats will have a much bigger turnout advantage than in the last two Presidential elections. If, after all this, he has Obama up only 8 points in New Jersey, that’s good for McCain nationally.
Here’s the thing - it was ok saying Obama should be far more ahead in any state, but it’s down to days and hours now. If he wins all those states by just .5%, he wins the electoral votes.
Sorry top break the news to some folks but if the consensus here is that he should be ahead by 10 but in fact is ahead by only 4 or 5, he still wins.
Wow, Rasmussen has NJ tighter than either he or Strategic Vision have the PA race. Although he get some spillover from the Philly market, it looks like he might benefit from a more concerted effort in NJ.
Rasmussen doesn’t publish internals unless you pay for them by subscribing to his “premium” service. He does believe in weighting by party ID, and he has been using weighting that assumes that Democrats will have a six point turnout advantage nationally (which hasn’t happened in any election cycle since 1986).
Four years ago, Democrats had a seven point turnout advantage, so I am inferring that Scott thinks that this year it will be at least that much and probably about 2-3 points more. That’s why this poll is a bit surprising to me (in a good way).
These polls are not adding up. So Obama is ahead by 5-7 nationally but only up 7% in NJ? Ras still has McCain at 1% up in Ohio right? And, what, 3% down in Florida? There is something screwy going on here. Look where McCain is campaigning: PA, WI, MN, IA, VA. That’s a blue majority.
Yes, and Obama is back in Pennsylvania where he was SUPPOSE to have this big lead.
Well, I'll try this again. . .we have written to everyone we can think of. Any suggestions?
Please Help Freep This Request To Palin/McCain
Sat Oct 4 08:34:27 2008 · 1 of 21
adc
We are writing on behalf of a group of McCain/Palin volunteers who met last week in Bergen County, NJ, in order to try to get out out the vote and garner support for the 2008 Campaign. . . the most important Presidential Campaign in recent memory.
We were wondering if any thought has been given to holding a rally at Liberty State Park, in Jersey City, NJ sometime in October? In light of the enormous crowds Sarah Palin has been generating, and on the heels of a her fabulous debate performance on Thursday, we thought a perfect venue for a rally would be right on the Hudson at Liberty, opposite the site of the World Trade Center, with that beautiful Statue of Liberty as a backdrop!
How awesome would it be for Sarah and John to speak to the people of NJ,NY & CT in such a fabulous setting? The gap in NJ looks formidable, yes, but we need to begin to change New Jersey from blue to red - Hudson County would be the perfect place to begin. Hoboken, Jersey City, West New York, Union City, etc, have long been Democratic bastions, however, with the more recent influx of young professionals in the Hoboken, Jersey City area, now might be a good time to start building a base there. An appearance by Rudy Guliani, or, one of our fabulous NYC talk show hosts, Sean Hannity, would add to an awesome lineup, and serve to generate tremendous interest in the alternative to the Democratic stronghold there. With a Presidential debate scheduled for Hempstead NY on October 15, might it be possible for them to make a stop across the river within that time frame? I can assure you they would be welcomed with great enthusiasm by both NJ and NY voters!
Our small group, as well as many others throughout the state, would love to be able to mobilize one another towards a huge outpouring of support in NJ for a true American hero, John McCain, and his running mate Sarah Palin, as they campaign for reform and the conservative ideals of freedom and liberty.
Liberty State Park, on the New York Harbor, less than 2000 feet from the Statue of Liberty, might be just the place to pick up much needed momentum.
We look forward to hearing your thoughts.
BTW, you must know that the USS Intrepid is back in NY Harbor. That would be a great venue as well.
Sincerely,
North Jersey McCain/Palin Supporters
Asking for help to flood this letter to the following (2) addresses:
Hey, the Newsweak poll says he’s up 11 points with only a 13 point oversampling of Democrats. This despite McCain leading by two points among Independents. And then there is all this (a cut and paste from a NRO post on this poll):
“We are to believe that McCain is losing among women by 9 percent, but losing among men by 14 percent.
“We are to believe that the Hillary voters are lining up behind Obama, 88 percent to 7 percent.
“We are to believe Obama is winning 18 to 34-year-olds by 10 percent, but he is winning 45 to 64-year-olds by 16 percent.
“We are to believe the white vote is just about even, 46 percent for Obama, 47 percent for McCain.
“And we are to believe the electorate in November will be 27 percent Republican, 40 percent Democrat, and 30 percent Independent.
“If the over/under on the partisan breakdown on Election Day is 13 percent, I’d take the under. I wonder if anybody in Vegas would take that wager...”
Ignore that man behind the curtain!
I think the McCain Campaign, confident of what they are capable of, are basing that strategy on polling that reflects a different turnout plan than mainstream polls.
If he is truly only ahead by 8 in a state like NJ, then he is not ahead nationally.
Definitely under. A 13% spread is obscene. The pollster should be fired. None of those numbers make sense.
How can the race be over if Obama only leads 8 points in New Jersey?
Can we give New Jersey back to the British?
Would they even take it?
New Jersey would vote for the Three Stooges if they were on the ballot too...
I was calling undecideds for McCain/Palin today. I picked Colorado the campaign picked Aurora, CO. My son in law said it a burb of Denver and is probably very liberal. The McCain campaign gave me 20 numbers to call. I talked to 6 people 1/2 for bambi the other 1/2 for McCain. I believe 2 of them were PUMA’s. So as far as I can tell...that was a good number...left messages on 10 answer machines...2 hung up on me and 2 were disconnected numbers.
While I believe that obama will get NJ (of course), I am astounded that I have not seen ANY Obama signs here in South Jersey...NONE! I’ve seen two McCain signs...one in front of a known Democrat (who happens to be Jewish). I know he will take the state, but I don’t think it will be in the numbers that Kerry did
See post 25. I’m in Bergen County, but I can tell you that Hudson County has an enormous group of Cuban and Spanish voters. These people are strongly religious and Pro Life. They have been under a Democratic stronghold for so long that they think there is no hope for them to impact the state. Now is the time for McCain/Palin to go to NJ.
I continue to think that Colorado will stay red. Four years ago, Republicans had a whopping nine point turnout advantage (according to the exit poll data). Even if he state is a bit less red this time around, I seriously doubt that the Democrats can make up such a huge disadvantage in the space of a single Presidential election. Moreover, McCain is himself a Western state Republican who can probably do better in Colorado than Bush did.
Wait a second. Eight percent is almost the same lead Obama has *nationally* according to Ras. This makes no sense at all.
Acorn has a huge presents in CO right now...more fraud taking place in CO.
“Chasing?” I don’t think he’s been to NJ one time. The fact that he’s really within about 4 in a legit poll is, I think, pretty impressive, though NJ is a teaser like MI and he was smarter than Bush in pulling out of MI.
Respectfully, we’ve got 15 electoral votes. It’s worth fighting for at this point.
AS others have said, not surprising that 0bama is ahead, but I expected it to be a heck of a lot more than 8 points.
A simple literacy test of voters would shift the poll to 80% for McCain and 20% for Obama. New Jersey is a democrat state that has built up and maintained the most mindless, do-as-you-are-told voting base in the country.
We need to change that.
Yes, the voters here are mindless. To prove the point, they will also return the living cadaver, Frank Lautenberg, to another term in the Senate.
NJ is filled with people the likes of the recent Howard Stern street interview.
“...it had one of the hugest Bradley effects!”
Not in Rasmussen’s poll. He called for BO to get 43% of the vote. BO got 44% of the vote.
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