Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 270 Bush 248

http://www.electoral-vote.com/ ^

[justlittleoleme]

This day in 2004 Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 270 Bush 248

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Oct10.html

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Its not over until its over. I think it will all depend on how many acorn nuts are eliminated.

[Lucky9teen]

Polling’s Perfect Storm?

According to Mark Blumenthal at National Journal, there are three factors at work that may cause polls to be way off this year. They are:

1. 20% of all households don’t have a landline and they are mostly younger voters
2. The “Bradley Effect” in which white voters tell pollsters they will vote for a black guy but don’t
3. Likely voter models may not capture the electorate correctly

Cell-phone-only voters are young and strongly pro-Obama and may cause his strength to be understated. The effect can be compensated for by weighting 18-29 year olds in sufficient numbers (but see below). The second effect is unknown although it did not appear to be a big factor in the primaries. This effect would cause McCain’s strength to appear weaker than it really is. Finally, the likely voter models assume there is some way to tell who will vote and who won’t. This year that is very hard to gauge and demographic models based on the 2004 exit polls may not be worth much. On the other hand, these effects may all cancel. It is a tough call.

[phoenix07]

I agree. And - I don’t think the Dems can count on the Hispanic vote the way they are all blathering. I live in Phoenix and the talk here is that Obama after all voted against immigration reform. And many of the Latinos here understand that their jobs depend on people making over $250K per year - and they are starting to lose those jobs. Many of the Hispanics are evidently voting Republican this year if you listen to the Hispanic stations and read hispanic papers.

[Perdogg]

Electoral Vote Predictor October 16th, 2012: Palin 303 Clinton 235

[Lucky9teen]

Today's Polls

We have 13 presidential polls today. A Rasmussen poll in Michigan makes it clear why McCain abandoned the state: Obama is leading by 16 points. No doubt McCain's internal polls showed the same thing and Steve Schmidt decided it was hopeless. Obama still has a small (3-point) lead in Florida. He has been leading there in the last few polls. Florida is a must-win state for McCain. There is no way he can get to 270 without Florida. Same is true for Ohio, where Obama is ahead 48% to 45%. McCain absolutely must win Ohio, too. North Carolina is a statististical tie, with Obama 1 point ahead. Again, McCain must win North Carolina. He should be 10 points ahead here and he is not. Missouri is now for McCain 49% to 46%. It is not a must-win state for either candidate, but with 11 electoral votes, it is a prize worth having. Finally, West Virginia shows Obama with an 8-point lead. Let's wait for more polls before believing this one, although West Virginia is a poor state and the economy probably plays a role heremissouri. Furthermore, Biden has been pushing for clean coal as a way to reduce dependence on foreign oil and coal mining is central to West Virginia's economy. A continued push on the coal issue might be enough to capture this state. The problem with coal is that the environmentalists in other states don't like it. Politics is about tradeoffs.

State	Obama	McCain	Start	End	Pollster
Alaska	38%	55%	Oct 03	Oct 06	Ivan Moore Research
Florida	50%	47%	Oct 08	Oct 08	Rasmussen
Indiana	43%	50%	Oct 07	Oct 07	Rasmussen
Michigan	56%	40%	Oct 08	Oct 08	Rasmussen
Minnesota	47%	46%	Oct 04	Oct 07	ARG
Missouri	46%	49%	Oct 04	Oct 06	ARG
Montana	45%	50%	Oct 06	Oct 08	ARG
North Carolina	49%	48%	Oct 08	Oct 08	Rasmussen
New Hampshire	52%	43%	Oct 06	Oct 08	ARG
New Jersey	50%	42%	Oct 07	Oct 07	Rasmussen
Ohio	48%	45%	Oct 04	Oct 07	ARG
Texas	38%	57%	Oct 05	Oct 08	ARG
West Virginia	50%	42%	Oct 04	Oct 08	ARG

 

We also have four Senate polls. In Alaska, Mark Begich is holding up against Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK). A lot hinges on Stevens trial. If he is found guilty, the show is over. In Minnesota, another poll shows Al Franken ahead of Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN). This was a race the Republicans thought they could win. A win by Franken puts the Democrats very close to a filibuster-proof Senate. A race to watch. In New Jersey and New Hampshire, the Democrats are cruising to easy victories. CQ Politics has updated its predictions in four Senate races: Georgia, Minnesota, Kentucky, and Virginia. All four changes move the races closer to the Democratic column. In Virginia, the race is now marked as "Safe Democrat," something unheard of for a challenger, especially when the other party holds the seat, even if it will be vacated.

State	Democrat	D-pct	Republican	R-pct	Start	End	Pollster
Alaska	Mark Begich	49%	Ted Stevens*	45%	Oct 03	Oct 06	Ivan Moore Research
Minnesota	Al Franken	43%	Norm Coleman*	37%	Oct 07	Oct 07	Rasmussen
New Hampshire	Jeanne Shaheen	51%	John Sununu*	42%	Oct 06	Oct 08	ARG
New Jersey	Frank Lautenberg*	51%	Richard Zimmer	37%	Oct 07	Oct 07	Rasmussen

 

We also have six House polls. In Alaska Ethan Berkowitz (D) is probably the beneficiary of all the corruption charges swirling around Rep. Don Young (R-AK) and it appears Berkowitz will flip the seat to the Democrats. Another upset appears to be in the making in NY-29 where the Democratic challenger, Eric Massa, is ahead of incumbent Randy Kuhl (R) 49% to 42%. Kuhl hasn't done anything wrong and his district is R+5. He just happens to be a Republican in a year when that is a bad thing to be. One can only wonder what is going on in the other R+5 districts that haven't been polled.

Cong. Distr.	Democrat	D-pct	Republican	R-pct	Start	End	Pollster
AK-AL	Ethan Berkowitz	51%	Don Young*	42%	Oct 03	Oct 06	Ivan Moore Research
IN-07	Andre Carson*	51%	Gabrielle Campo	35%	Sep 29	Oct 03	Research 2000
IN-09	Baron Hill*	49%	Mike Sodrel	37%	Sep 29	Oct 03	Research 2000
NY-29	Eric Massa	49%	Randy Kuhl*	42%	Oct 07	Oct 08	Research 2000
PA-10	Chris Carney*	48%	Christopher Hackett	33%	Sep 30	Oct 05	Franklin+Marshall Coll.
TX-07	Michael Skelly	40%	John Culberson*	48%	Oct 07	Oct 08	Research 2000

[bayliving]

Cell-phone-only voters are young and strongly pro-Obama and may cause his strength to be understated.

The "young cell-phone-only" people that I know either don't care about the election or are voting for McCain.

And I live in the Deep Blue state of Maryland.

How do they come to the conclusion that the "young" vote always breaks for the democRAT?!?! This is very presumptuous to me.

[Names Ash Housewares]

And how many right thinkers are so fed up with the damn MSM and thier polls we hang up!

I bet a lot!

[paul544]

Yikes!! This is feeling like 2006 again.

[jrd]

Don’t hang up ...feed them a bunch of crap!

[parksstp]

If McCain is going to win this, the most probable outcome will be 274-264 or 270-268.

Scenario 1:
We lose on NM & IA and hold everything else 274-264. Most important states become CO & VA

Scenario 2:
We lose CO, NM, and IA or we lose NV, IA, and NM, but win NH and Maine’s 2nd CD - That one vote in Maine provides some outlet if CO or NV fails.

But let’s get real here. McCain is still campaigning in WI & PA and the crowds are fired up. Obama may be up in these states, but come on, by 13?? Don’t conservatives make up 45% of the PA/WI population to begin with? And WV is a joke.
But to top this off, MN putting Franken in has got to be one of the most disgraceful things I have ever witnessed. I don’t care how much of a RINO Coleman is, Franken is not an option.

I still cannot believe this country would put a Marxist/Socialist in the WH with such shady ties. If this happens, the GOP may never regain control again. And I don’t say that lightly. I’ve lost sleep over this thing. The only things keeping me sane are FR, Talk Radio, and Sarah.

[ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas]

That website flipped the electoral predictions a lot. 2 days later (Oct. 12) it had Bush winning. RCP was better.