Real Clear Politics has Obama ahead 277-163 (Update: Virginia now leans Obama)

Real Clear Politics ^ | Thursday, October 9, 2008

[MinorityRepublican]

We have our work cut out for us. Let's improve our ground game and regain our momentum!

[The Wizard]

you believe it.....

[wiseprince]

McCain took too long to respond to what was happening in VA. Is he doing the same thing to IN and NC?

This thing isn’t over yet. Get out the vote!

[jas3]

Or let’s accept that fact that the Republic is dead and move our assets offshore before the Marxists nationalize them.

jas3

[Jeff Chandler]

Wait until the polls reflect this morning’s big announcement!

[devere]

Unreal Opaque Politics is on the whole a Democratic site.

[DonaldC]

I just hope it gets better than this: http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard

[MinorityRepublican]

I don't believe the polls. But at the same time we can't ignore them and do something about it. We have to get our base fired up once again.

We did it back in '00 and '04. The question is, can we turn out the numbers necessary this time?

[CommieCutter]

And what announcement is that?

[GoCards]

What big announcement?

[BGHater]

Unreal that NC, GA, Indiana is even that close.

[CatOwner]

Wait until the polls reflect this morning’s big announcement!

I'm sensing you forgot your sarcasm tag, as there isn't any big announcement today.

[linn37]

I think Mccains people were messing with Politico last night.

[Allegra]

Uh-oh.

This thread's gonna draw the doom-and-gloom drama queens like ants to honey. I can just picture the theatrical posts now.

[impeachedrapist]

Electoral map: Kerry - 307, Bush - 211

[expatpat]

Is it Likely Voters or Registered? What was the Democrat/Republican sampling ratio?

[Goreknowshowtocheat]

McCain will announce that Cuomo will be Secy of the Treasury?

[JFC]

people are idiots. They better watch out for what they are rallying for...

[moose2004]

So a total BS poll from a Dem organization, PPP (D), that showed Obama + 8 compelled John and Tom to flip VA to the messiah? That’s an absolute joke.

[concerned about politics]

Sorry. Don't believe it for one minute. Remember, ACORN has been working on our election for 40 years. It wouldn't be hard to fill up the pollsters rosters with so called "Republican and independent" respondants to alter the outcome of the poll. Every time a pollster gets a cooperative respondent, they keep going back to that respondent, because it's not easy contacting people today with cell phones and Internets. Those collected phone contacts are used over and over.

Example: Any one here being called by a pollster?

[GoCards]

Stop it! lol

[ncalburt]

who believes a single poll anymore ??
almost every poll is over polling Dems by 7-15 percent !
Its a joke and pure Dem - Obama Propaganda .
Ras and Gallup have been outed as complete frauds NOW .

[ncalburt]

A Dem owned polling group called PPP’s phony poll give Va to dem side and you panick !

[Hoodat]

Sweet. They called it wrong then, and they are calling it wrong now. If they had their way, they would call off the election and declare Obama the winner right now.

[WakeUpAndVote]

OHHHH NOOOOOEEESSSSS! We are all DEAD!

[pieceofthepuzzle]

I just looked at the compilations from 2004 at this point. In the battleground states there were big differences among the pollsters in just about every state, with 10 point differences from poll to poll (e.g. Kerry +5 vs. Bush +5 in the same state during the same polling period). Gallup was the worst of all, and essentially their picks in the battleground states were not any more accurate than flipping a coin. The bottom line is that it is a waste of time to perseverate on polls at this point. The campaigns themselves have their own take on all of this, and will allocate resources accordingly. We just need to do what we can to get the truth out there.

[concerned about politics]

Electoral map: Kerry - 307, Bush - 211

Yep. No one was polling the silent majority. Bush won by 4,000,000 votes.

[ScottinVA]

The VA flip is based on three polls — PPP, SUSA and Suffolk, ALL of whom heavily weighted their sampling to the Dims. VA is a dead heat. McCain and Palin both are coming here to Virginia Beach on Monday a.m. (Hank Williams Jr will be there, too!!); and Monday afternoon Sarah goes to speak in Richmond. This idea that McCain is behind in VA is crap.

[dalebert]

I think these polls are suspicious to say the least and most likely reflect the amount of voter fraud set up to take the election.

[ScottinVA]

The sampling data was 40-35% for the dems. It’s actually just a razor’s edge from being 50-50.

[griswold3]

The dependency index in VA has risen sharply! Those who are dependent on the government for their survival will vote democrat. Sorry!

[zwerni]

what announcement?

[tbpiper]

you believe it.....

Not on your Nelly.

[Yankereb]

I don’t trust the polls either. I think people will lie to them. I can make a poll show anything you want it to. Statistics lie, and so do polls.
The only poll that counts is on Election Day.
How many times can some one lie to you, and you still believe it. That’s the Dems. That’s the News Media. Don’t believe any of these. Just get out and vote.

[Interesting Times]

It makes more sense to use a poll from the same date, four years ago:

Kerry 280, Bush 248 - Oct. 9, 2004

[impeachedrapist]

The dependency index in VA has risen sharply! Those who are dependent on the government for their survival will vote democrat. Sorry!

Mmmmmm hmmmmm. And we heard the same lame argument in 2004 (Bush by 9 points), 2000 (Bush by 8 points), 1996 (Dole by 2 points), 1992...

[impeachedrapist]

I agree. Yours is better for comparative purposes. But mine was easy to find!! :-)

In the future I'll try to use your URL. Thanks!

[colinhester]

Not all people are idiots - just half have below average IQs.....C

[C210N]

I don’t trust the polls either.

I actually have alot of faith in the polls. Very good indicator as to who the pollsters favor. Excellent indicator of which side they want to discourage.

[Interesting Times]

Just change the date in the url to stay current... :)

[soupcon]

McCain took too long to respond to what was happening in VA. Is he doing the same thing to IN and NC?

This thing isn’t over yet. Get out the vote!
________________________________________
Nah, he’s going to Iowa.

[Wegotsarah.com]

Don’t know if this has been posted, if not someone may wish to (I’m a newbie). Surprisingly, it’s a good analysis on the current status of the race by Balz of WaPo.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/08/AR2008100803523.html

[rjmeagle]

Uh-oh. This thread's gonna draw the doom-and-gloom drama queens like ants to honey. I can just picture the theatrical posts now.

You got that right!!! Well, on to other threads....I go!

[impeachedrapist]

McCain took too long to respond to what was happening in VA. Is he doing the same thing to IN and NC?

Nah, he’s going to Iowa.

Maybe... just maybe McCain and his campaign staff know just a wee bit more about running campaigns and winning elections than some random keyboard critics. Just a thought...

[impeachedrapist]

Does RCP have maps for each day from Oct 04? If so, that will certainly come in handy. Thanks.

[GraniteStateConservative]

This is the more applicable one:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Oct09.html

It’s is far more accurate. Also, the numbers impeachedrapist posted included leans/toss-ups. They had IA and NV and OH as barely Kerry (within MOE). Those 3 states were within MOE on Election Day.

[TomGuy]

Electoral map: Kerry - 307, Bush - 211

Yep. No one was polling the silent majority. Bush won by 4,000,000 votes.

Don't kid yourself. Had it not been for the release of that bin Laden tape the weekend before the election, which reminded voters of terrorism, Kerry would have won in 04. He almost did, anyway. And 4 million votes out of 121 million is a small margin, only about 1.8%.

[TomGuy]

And we heard the same lame argument in 2004 (Bush by 9 points), 2000 (Bush by 8 points), 1996 (Dole by 2 points), 1992...

And the Pubbies were going to retain Congress in 2006.

Opps.

[devere]

“Or let’s accept that fact that the Republic is dead and move our assets offshore before the Marxists nationalize them.”

You’ve got from Nov 5th 2008 to Jan 20th 2009 to save your assets if the worst happens.

[Bigh4u2]

So does that mean that if you add in the missing 98 VOTES to McCains 163..you’d get 277 for Obamalamadingdong and 261 for Johnny?

Still would be wrong either way..