A forgotten fact that explains why many of the polls are so inaccurate

hillaryclintonforum ^ | 8/10/2008 | jsdjason

[BillyM]

I'm a registered democrat and have always voted republican. Why is this might you ask? I registered as a democrat to vote in primaries! Thus all these articles that point out the spike in democrat registrations forget that a large number of republicans re-registered as democrats this spring. There is no way in hell they'll vote for Obama.

Does no one remember "Operation Chaos" led by Rush Limbaugh? These polls are overweighting democrats (and minorities too) big time as a result of this fallacy. Look at Pennsylvania as a great example! The number of democrat registrations was abnormally large.

[Jolla]

When I lived in San Francisco I registered three times as a Republican and never got my card, then I registered Democrat and it showed up finally.

[Just_an_average_Joe]

Thanks from all of us with goldfish memories....

[goldstategop]

Those Democrats voted for Hillary. If they've forgotten to reregister as Republicans, the party ID weighing used in MSM/Driveby polls is grossly inaccurate.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[padre35]

Great point, perhaps many people just did not bother to switch back to Republican Voter rolls.

I wonder about that 10%++ of Dems that will not support Obama, though, and I wonder how many voter registrations really where switched over to Dhimmicrat?

Jeez...we have to be statisticians now?

[Safrguns]

ROFL!... you are right...
Rush WILL have the last laugh!

[IllumiNaughtyByNature]

This is true in the INBN household. :o)

[Texas4ever]

Barack is starting make Hillary look good.

Wow Barack is scarier than I could have imagined.

the Hill girls seem to think it’s all for African Oil and Money!

[Texas4ever]

Barack is starting make Hillary look good.

Wow Barack is scarier than I could have imagined.

the Hill girls seem to think it’s all for African Oil and Money!

[rlbedfor]

i don’t think the pollsters look at your registrations. I think they ask.

[Bahbah]

Operation Chaos may beat out Operation ACORN.

Thanks, Rush. I mean that.

[ROTB]

Wiley: corrected, and thank you.

Now up to 20 ...

1) “Polls” that show Obama ahead tell a different story when internals are studied.

2) Hillary and Bill don’t want Obama to win, since she wants to run again in 2012

3) “Hussein” being Obama’s middle name is still news to most people.

4) A picture of Obama dressed as a Muslim (there are at least three) is still worth 1000 words (3000 in this case). Man your email station! Post bills!

5) The PUMAs who know the hows and whys of Hillary getting cheated, will vote Palin, and will pull others.

6) “Bitter ... [Gun Clingers]”, will vote McCain

7) The Palins ARE America and the conservative base. America and the conservative base will vote accordingly.

8) The NRA has “8 figures” of ads to unload in “swing” states

9) Obama is only 5 points up in New York! New York!

10) The Democrats were talking about Democratic consultants freaking out over Obama mis-managing his campaign before they settled into poll alteration.

11) The Enemedia is already spreading the meme that if Obama loses, it “is racism”. They see the tea leaves ...

12) The Media was calling the election for Kerry ELECTION MORNING in 2004, and Carter and Reagan polled evenly on election day! Also, www.InTrade.com had Kerry as an 80/20 favorite on election morning 2004. SOMEONE is trying to buffalo us!

13) McCain has not yet played either the Jeremiah Wright card nor the Tony Rezko card!

14) Plenty of white Democratic voters are unimpressed with Obama, and will not vote for him. Democrats can't energize their base!

15) Obama has only 60% of the Jewish vote, compared to the 75% Kerry got.

16) The Christian base that re-elected Bush in 2004, knows Sarah is more than a Sunday Christian, and is praying for her.

17) McCain opened 50 offices in California. It’s in play!

18) Google "Bradley Effect". Obama is getting poll votes he'll never get on election day.

19) Operation Chaos resulted in an overlarge quantity of Democrat registrations that will never ever vote Democratic.

20) Polls are meant by the liberal media, to SHAPE public opinion, not report it.

[SaintDismas]

You got that right FRiend. I’m starting to love Hillary.

[steve-b]

Thus all these articles that point out the spike in democrat registrations forget that a large number of republicans re-registered as democrats this spring. There is no way in hell they'll vote for Obama.

And they're now showing up in polls as McCain voters... but there evidently aren't enough of them.

[word_warrior_bob]

Even with that factored they still have to cook the polls badly to get Obama ahead. Democrats will abandon the messiah in droves on election day and Palin will make huge strides with the female vote leading to a McCain landslide.

[Aria]

I too registered as a rat for Operation Chaos. The weightings have got to be wrong but then there is all that fraud to contend with...it’s gonna be ugly.

[snarkytart]

I do believe she’s talking about party weighing in the polls, and the justification people like Ras are using 7+ more dem.

You are going to be so sad November 5th Stevie.
lol

[BulletBobCo]

Good point.....and welcome to FreeRepublic.

[queenkathy]

Is that the reason the polls are “weighted”? Is that where they get the numbers for that?

[YellowRoseofTx]

the Hill girls seem to think it’s all for African Oil and Money!

And Bush is in on the conspiracy. (Yeah, I went there and read their comments too. Very interesting)

[lewislynn]

Pollsters aren’t fools they’re aware of Operation Chaos and they’re using the heavy Democrat weighting to their advantage...for now.

[Yankee]

I thought about this when I read in a couple of articles that the big gains in Dem registrations were during the primaries.

I’ll bet most of the Chaos participants have not bothered to switch their registration back.

That could well be skewing things a little bit.

[Nevadan]

Thanks for posting. I was in deep despair today. I needed the encouragement and reminder that not all is as it appears.

[buckeye12]

Most states quote new registrations when they release numbers, not just updated information.

My sister is an obamabot that has been registering voters in PA for the past 9 months. I can guarantee you that all those registrations were not a product of operation chaos. The numbers I’ve seen show that 8 out of every 10 new voters in these swing states are obama supporters.

[IllumiNaughtyByNature]

I don’t care really, We’ll reregister after the elections. Now When asked I just say I’m a registered democrat voting for Palin and get the strangest looks. :oP

[ncalburt]

Bingo we have a winner.

Old Scottie and Gallup and Battleground frauds can peddle there Obama poll propaganda and get asked on the Obama networks and make lots of dough and suddenly discover in the last few days a huge surge for McCain ??
Wow what a shocker

[ncalburt]

Yes , the operation chaos and Acorn phone book registered voters.

For some ODD reason they decided the ACTUAL turnout for the last two Pres elections which was 50/50 does not apply this year .

[Mygirlsmom]

"They" know the fix is in.

I don't think a lot of people realize that phony voters on the rolls is much more than just a nuisance. Once a name is placed on that roll-someone (ANYONE!) can vote in that person's name--and they will.

Tony Romo's gonna be one busy guy.....

[lewislynn]

The numbers I’ve seen show that 8 out of every 10 new voters in these swing states are obama supporters.

Well at least they were when they registered. Registrations only equal votes when ACORN gets involved.

[Nachoman]

Keep your heads up FReepers. The MSM is going to manipulate the late polling to try and suppress voter turnout for Mc/Palin. We’ve gone through this the last 2 elections.

[Tail Gunner John]

I can’t recall Rush making your point. I wonder if he has forgotten as many of us had.

[BeckB]

I live in Houston and am not seeing in Obama yard signs in my part of town. I do live in a conservative area but this is really strange.

[marinamuffy]

One question I have about these polls is where are the democrats that they are polling? Are they all Philadelphia democrats? Or are they Bethlehem or Wilkes-Barre democrats?

I really don’t know what to think about McCain’s chances in PA. I change my mind 4 times every day. I’m in Montgomery County and in some neighborhoods I see 8 Obama signs for every McCain sign but in other neighborhoods it’s the reverse. I was in the NorthEast (Philadelphia -but not really) yesterday and all I was seeing were McCain signs. In the few blocks around me it’s pretty evenly split for signs, maybe leaning McCain. I really think there were fewer Bush signs around here in 2004.

[Frantzie]

What is the deal with 50 offices in Kallie-forneeah? Is this true? Obama is going to lose a lot of Jewish votes in CA and I think may pick up a lot more hispanic votes?? What is going on?

I heard that Cal may pass a law against same sex marriages??? Is sanity starting to return befoire the state implodes into bankruptcy?

[JudgeFelon]

Here in northeast Arkansas except in a presidential year we either vote dem or not vote in local elections. Why? absolutely no republicans run for office here. When I asked for a Republican ballot in April they had to find me one. So I’m counted as a dem by the local registrar as a dem.

[mlocher]

I heard that Cal may pass a law against same sex marriages???

I read it is up by about 10 pts. I was hoping at least for 60-40.

[JennysCool]

Polls are also inaccurate because they’re usually conducted during the daytime, on landlines that haven’t registered with “Do not call.”

People working, and/or cellphone users, aren’t even being counted.

Polls are also inaccurate because the pollsters are hired by the media, which has a vested interest in keeping them fluctuating in order to wring every last dollar out of the candidates prior to the election.

Completely outmoded, and completely tainted. Yeah, that’s something you want to believe in!

[Tail Gunner John]

When I moved to my current north central Kentucky county I was flabbergasted to have the clerk of courts tell me I couldn't vote in local elections if I registered Republican.

Same reason as in your locale.

Crazy thing is, my neighbors are some of the best most conservative people you'll meet. Nearly all registered dems, go figure.

[ROTB]

That’s what I do!

[ListeningLady]

I live in south Georgia. As of the middle 1990’s, registered Repubs like myself were being told the same thing—and it was true—only Dems were running in local and state district elections.

A few of us got tired of it. And we worked hard to change it. Now our state representative is a Repub, our state senator is a Repub, and our governor is a Repub. Repubs enter most of the local races and often win.

Change can come—but we have to be willing to help it come. Most of our friends and neighbors had no real idea what the Democratic Party stands for. We just got the information out there that enlightened them. One of my favorite memories of the years of change was when our state representative, a Democrat at the time, literally got on his knees beside my chair and tried to convince me that he really believed the way I did on issues and voted that way, but that he had to be Democrat to to be elected and go to Atlanta. At that time, the governor was a Dem and Dems controlled both houses. When the tide began rolling the Repub way, the same guy “saw the light” and bailed out of the sinking Dem ship.

You folks can effect change in your counties if you want to. Change can come (the right kind of change!)

[fortheDeclaration]

You got that right FRiend. I’m starting to love Hillary.

Lets not get carried away!

Both are evil.